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Wednesday, 23 September 15
CAPESIZE: SPOT RATES HAVE INCREASED MORE THAN 70 PER CENT DURING LAST WEEK
 Dry Bulk owners, always look at September as the time that the market “signals” what lies ahead for the remainder of the year. The Chinese iron ore restocking that traditionally picks up during Q4, is currently stealing the spotlight. The Capesize summer rally proved to be short-lived, with the average rate for the segment losing most of its gains and settling around $8,000/day. Spot rates have nonetheless increased more than 70% during last week.
Looking at the short term momentum, this appears to be favoring another boost for the big bulkers. Iron ore stockpiles at Chinese ports are currently well below the five year average. The 14% drop in imports that took place in August, has at the same time created an additional “gap” to be filled. The ratio of the present inventory of iron ore over steel production, which is also well below the five-year average, points out to a bigger than usual portion of iron ore stockpiles being consumed by Chinese mills and turned into steel. Despite the fact that domestic steel consumption has been faltering as of last year, production has found support in exports, which are up a whopping 27% in the first 8 months of the year. With low inventories of iron ore, steel production inching up last month, and a very strong trend of steel exports year to date, everything points out to another round of stockpiling and possibly another mini Capesize rally in the way, “mini” being the operative word here.
Although rates appear set to advance further in the following days, I am skeptic in regards to how long positive momentum can be sustained. The reality is that despite the decrease in Chinese iron ore production levels, these are still considerable given the current steel output in the country, setting a limit in imports and consequently the spikes Cape rates enjoy. As steel producers in China turn to higher quality imported iron ore and local iron ore producers exit the market amidst low prices, things certainly move towards the “right” direction but we are hardly there yet.
Additionally and even most importantly, China remains the top steel consuming market worldwide and despite the fact that shipping its steel to India and other SE Asian countries might be offsetting part of the gap created by the domestic consumption slowdown, it doesn’t even get close to filling it. With Chinese steel consumption and production expected to shift into an even lower gear, the amount of iron ore required by Chinese producers going forward is set to keep less and less dwt busy. Muddy waters for Capes.
By Eva Tzima
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 11 November 15
Q3' 16 RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAP LOST 15.47% SINCE 6 AUGUST; 18.65% SINCE 6 MAY
COALspot.com: API4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap for delivery Q1’ 2016 declined week over week and month over month.
The Q1’ 2016 &nb ...
Wednesday, 11 November 15
VESSEL VALUES ARE DOWN BY AT LEAST 20% SINCE MID-AUGUST - INTERMODAL
I had promised not to spend another broker’s insight focusing on the dry bulk side. However, the sale of the M/V Churchill Bulker (179,362 dw ...
Tuesday, 10 November 15
SELF-HEATING OF COAL HAS EMPHASISED THE IMPORTANCE OF CHECKING THE ACCURACY OF SHIPPER'S DECLARATIONS - GARD
Recent incidents involving self-heating of coal has emphasised the importance of checking the accuracy of shipper’s declarations for all type ...
Tuesday, 10 November 15
API 5 FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAP SLIDES CONTINUE
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q1’ 2016 delivery slid $3.55 per ton (8.50%) month over month to US$ 38.20 per ton. The swap ...
Monday, 09 November 15
BUNKER PRICES TO KEEP SLIDING THIS WEEK, EXPERT SAYS - MARINE BUNKER EXCHANGE
The oil price volatility has continued this week. Two dollars up one day and the next day two dollars down. The oil market has been trading on the ...
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- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- The University of Queensland
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Australian Coal Association
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- White Energy Company Limited
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Planning Commission, India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
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