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Wednesday, 23 September 15
CAPESIZE: SPOT RATES HAVE INCREASED MORE THAN 70 PER CENT DURING LAST WEEK
 Dry Bulk owners, always look at September as the time that the market “signals” what lies ahead for the remainder of the year. The Chinese iron ore restocking that traditionally picks up during Q4, is currently stealing the spotlight. The Capesize summer rally proved to be short-lived, with the average rate for the segment losing most of its gains and settling around $8,000/day. Spot rates have nonetheless increased more than 70% during last week.
Looking at the short term momentum, this appears to be favoring another boost for the big bulkers. Iron ore stockpiles at Chinese ports are currently well below the five year average. The 14% drop in imports that took place in August, has at the same time created an additional “gap” to be filled. The ratio of the present inventory of iron ore over steel production, which is also well below the five-year average, points out to a bigger than usual portion of iron ore stockpiles being consumed by Chinese mills and turned into steel. Despite the fact that domestic steel consumption has been faltering as of last year, production has found support in exports, which are up a whopping 27% in the first 8 months of the year. With low inventories of iron ore, steel production inching up last month, and a very strong trend of steel exports year to date, everything points out to another round of stockpiling and possibly another mini Capesize rally in the way, “mini” being the operative word here.
Although rates appear set to advance further in the following days, I am skeptic in regards to how long positive momentum can be sustained. The reality is that despite the decrease in Chinese iron ore production levels, these are still considerable given the current steel output in the country, setting a limit in imports and consequently the spikes Cape rates enjoy. As steel producers in China turn to higher quality imported iron ore and local iron ore producers exit the market amidst low prices, things certainly move towards the “right” direction but we are hardly there yet.
Additionally and even most importantly, China remains the top steel consuming market worldwide and despite the fact that shipping its steel to India and other SE Asian countries might be offsetting part of the gap created by the domestic consumption slowdown, it doesn’t even get close to filling it. With Chinese steel consumption and production expected to shift into an even lower gear, the amount of iron ore required by Chinese producers going forward is set to keep less and less dwt busy. Muddy waters for Capes.
By Eva Tzima
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 13 November 15
WEAK CHINA POWER DEMAND DAMPENS COAL CONSUMPTION - FITCH
The weak growth in China's electricity consumption in 2015, together with increasing non-thermal power generation capacity are exerting more pr ...
Friday, 13 November 15
DRY BULK, IT IS HARD TO MAINTAIN AN OPTIMISTIC VIEW FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF MONTHS - INTERMODAL
COALspot.com: The dry bulk owners looking for cover remained under pressure for size segments across the board. With Capes closing off the week as ...
Friday, 13 November 15
WEEKLY US COAL PRODUCTION DECLINES TO 16.5 MMST; SLIDE 14.9% Y-Y: EIA
COALspot.com – United States the world’s second largest coal producer has produced approximately totaled an estimated 16.5 million shor ...
Thursday, 12 November 15
FOREIGN COAL MINE ACQUISITION - STRATEGY VERSUS OPPORTUNITY FOR INDIAN UTILITIES - DIPESH DIPU
The acquisition market for thermal coal assets abroad is dull. Sellers of all hues are in the market; some are actively scouting for buyers while o ...
Thursday, 12 November 15
PORT OF NEWCASTLE'S COAL EXPORT VOLUME UP IN OCTOBER 2015
COALspot.com: The Port of Newcastle, Australia’s major trading ports and the world’s largest coal export port has shipped $1.254 billio ...
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- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Planning Commission, India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- PTC India Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
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