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Wednesday, 26 August 15
MARKET INSIGHT - STRATOS TINIAKOS
 It’s always interesting to comment on the market when big economies around the world are facing troubling times. Following the collapse of the Chinese stock market, the devaluation of the country’s currency a few days ago gave even to those who were optimistic in regards to global growth, more reasons to believe that the state of the economy of the world’s 2nd biggest oil consumer is not as strong as originally thought and possibly reflective of other developed economies as well. The sharp fall of oil prices is also partly indicative of these fundamentals.
Almost ten years ago oil was trading at USD46pbl when demand from China started pushing prices up, to a point that these reached almost USD160 pbl just before world economies went into recession. The oil supply glut is now pushing prices further down; with the less optimistic analysts believing that we could even see the 25 mark sooner rather than later.
The fall in prices that we are now witnessing was first predicted back in the middle of 2013, as easing of the Iranian sanctions was being discussed, Libya was about to start production again in a post-Gaddafi era and increased US production through fracking was taking place.
Many believe that the current collapse in prices is engineered by Saudi Arabia in an effort to knock out the US production as it is estimated that the cost of production of a fracking rig, including the financing cost, is about 70usd per barrel. So with oil prices in the region of 25-30usd it is very difficult for refineries in the US to compete and this is also evident in the fact that the number of fracking rigs dropped from 1608 in October 2014 to 747 in April 2015. So where do we stand now?
The first half of the year was brilliant for the tanker owners and nobody expected rates to remain as firm during the summer season as well, when seasonality always traditionally takes its toll on rates. The low oil prices environment supported dry cargo owners to achieve sustainable margins and tanker owners to gain more out of a very good market. The recent negative reversal though has been puzzling everyone. Despite the fact that a number of tanker owners believe that market will reverse course and start firming once again, it seems unlikely that year highs could be reached any time soon amidst the shock waves China keeps sending in the markets around the world.
Saying that, in the next couple of months many refineries are going into their scheduled semi-annual maintenance and about 70 million tons of crude will have to be stored, either on ships or in shore tanks. As demand cannot match supply and global growth is very likely to further decelerate, the tanker market is expected to remain somewhere around current levels, with lower oil prices supporting owners through smaller operating costs, helping them to achieve sustainable margins. The need for storage is at the same time expected to increase demand for dwt for 1-2 months period charters.
OPEC is the only entity that can save prices from further collapsing but there are currently no signs that the organization is heading towards this direction anytime soon, despite the fact that the consensus to start supporting prices is growing within its members. The next meeting scheduled in December is probably too far in the future to prevent a further significant drop even if it called for this much needed production cut. In the meantime, if world economies are set for further headwinds in the future, even cheaper oil doesn’t sound too bad.
By Stratos Tiniakos
Tanker Chartering Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Sunday, 23 August 15
SHIPPING FREIGHT RATES FALL SHARPLY ON EXCESS SUPPLY AND LOW DEMAND
COALspot.com: The BDI continued to soften and was down 5.78 pct and falls back below 1000 points this week.
The cape Index lost 17.25 per cent ...
Friday, 21 August 15
U.S. YEAR-TO-DATE COAL PRODUCTION VOLUME FALLS 8.7% Y-O-Y
COALspot.com – United States the world’s second largest coal producer has produced approximately totaled an estimated 18.3 million shor ...
Friday, 21 August 15
GLOBALCOAL TO LAUNCH ONLINE TRADING OF PHYSICAL MET COAL ON 13 OCTOBER
On 13 October 2015, globalCOAL will launch an online platform for the physical procurement and trade of high quality hard coking coal delivered FOB ...
Thursday, 20 August 15
COAL PRICES FALL TO 12-YEAR LOWS AS CHINA, INDIA JOIN DEMAND SLOWDOWN - REUTERS
Coal futures have fallen to 12-year lows, hit by soaring production and a slowdown in global buying, including from India and China which until rec ...
Wednesday, 19 August 15
FOB INDONESIA COAL SWAPS CONTINUE FLAT TREND LINE THIS WEEK
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swap for delivery 4Q 2015 declined month on month and flat week over week, this past week.
The 4Q swap was decli ...
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- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- PTC India Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- The University of Queensland
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- White Energy Company Limited
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Australian Coal Association
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
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