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Wednesday, 26 August 15
MARKET INSIGHT - STRATOS TINIAKOS
 It’s always interesting to comment on the market when big economies around the world are facing troubling times. Following the collapse of the Chinese stock market, the devaluation of the country’s currency a few days ago gave even to those who were optimistic in regards to global growth, more reasons to believe that the state of the economy of the world’s 2nd biggest oil consumer is not as strong as originally thought and possibly reflective of other developed economies as well. The sharp fall of oil prices is also partly indicative of these fundamentals.
Almost ten years ago oil was trading at USD46pbl when demand from China started pushing prices up, to a point that these reached almost USD160 pbl just before world economies went into recession. The oil supply glut is now pushing prices further down; with the less optimistic analysts believing that we could even see the 25 mark sooner rather than later.
The fall in prices that we are now witnessing was first predicted back in the middle of 2013, as easing of the Iranian sanctions was being discussed, Libya was about to start production again in a post-Gaddafi era and increased US production through fracking was taking place.
Many believe that the current collapse in prices is engineered by Saudi Arabia in an effort to knock out the US production as it is estimated that the cost of production of a fracking rig, including the financing cost, is about 70usd per barrel. So with oil prices in the region of 25-30usd it is very difficult for refineries in the US to compete and this is also evident in the fact that the number of fracking rigs dropped from 1608 in October 2014 to 747 in April 2015. So where do we stand now?
The first half of the year was brilliant for the tanker owners and nobody expected rates to remain as firm during the summer season as well, when seasonality always traditionally takes its toll on rates. The low oil prices environment supported dry cargo owners to achieve sustainable margins and tanker owners to gain more out of a very good market. The recent negative reversal though has been puzzling everyone. Despite the fact that a number of tanker owners believe that market will reverse course and start firming once again, it seems unlikely that year highs could be reached any time soon amidst the shock waves China keeps sending in the markets around the world.
Saying that, in the next couple of months many refineries are going into their scheduled semi-annual maintenance and about 70 million tons of crude will have to be stored, either on ships or in shore tanks. As demand cannot match supply and global growth is very likely to further decelerate, the tanker market is expected to remain somewhere around current levels, with lower oil prices supporting owners through smaller operating costs, helping them to achieve sustainable margins. The need for storage is at the same time expected to increase demand for dwt for 1-2 months period charters.
OPEC is the only entity that can save prices from further collapsing but there are currently no signs that the organization is heading towards this direction anytime soon, despite the fact that the consensus to start supporting prices is growing within its members. The next meeting scheduled in December is probably too far in the future to prevent a further significant drop even if it called for this much needed production cut. In the meantime, if world economies are set for further headwinds in the future, even cheaper oil doesn’t sound too bad.
By Stratos Tiniakos
Tanker Chartering Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Sunday, 23 August 15
SHIPPING FREIGHT RATES FALL SHARPLY ON EXCESS SUPPLY AND LOW DEMAND
COALspot.com: The BDI continued to soften and was down 5.78 pct and falls back below 1000 points this week.
The cape Index lost 17.25 per cent ...
Friday, 21 August 15
U.S. YEAR-TO-DATE COAL PRODUCTION VOLUME FALLS 8.7% Y-O-Y
COALspot.com – United States the world’s second largest coal producer has produced approximately totaled an estimated 18.3 million shor ...
Friday, 21 August 15
GLOBALCOAL TO LAUNCH ONLINE TRADING OF PHYSICAL MET COAL ON 13 OCTOBER
On 13 October 2015, globalCOAL will launch an online platform for the physical procurement and trade of high quality hard coking coal delivered FOB ...
Thursday, 20 August 15
COAL PRICES FALL TO 12-YEAR LOWS AS CHINA, INDIA JOIN DEMAND SLOWDOWN - REUTERS
Coal futures have fallen to 12-year lows, hit by soaring production and a slowdown in global buying, including from India and China which until rec ...
Wednesday, 19 August 15
FOB INDONESIA COAL SWAPS CONTINUE FLAT TREND LINE THIS WEEK
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swap for delivery 4Q 2015 declined month on month and flat week over week, this past week.
The 4Q swap was decli ...
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- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Australian Coal Association
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Planning Commission, India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- The University of Queensland
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
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