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Wednesday, 26 August 15
MARKET INSIGHT - STRATOS TINIAKOS
 It’s always interesting to comment on the market when big economies around the world are facing troubling times. Following the collapse of the Chinese stock market, the devaluation of the country’s currency a few days ago gave even to those who were optimistic in regards to global growth, more reasons to believe that the state of the economy of the world’s 2nd biggest oil consumer is not as strong as originally thought and possibly reflective of other developed economies as well. The sharp fall of oil prices is also partly indicative of these fundamentals.
Almost ten years ago oil was trading at USD46pbl when demand from China started pushing prices up, to a point that these reached almost USD160 pbl just before world economies went into recession. The oil supply glut is now pushing prices further down; with the less optimistic analysts believing that we could even see the 25 mark sooner rather than later.
The fall in prices that we are now witnessing was first predicted back in the middle of 2013, as easing of the Iranian sanctions was being discussed, Libya was about to start production again in a post-Gaddafi era and increased US production through fracking was taking place.
Many believe that the current collapse in prices is engineered by Saudi Arabia in an effort to knock out the US production as it is estimated that the cost of production of a fracking rig, including the financing cost, is about 70usd per barrel. So with oil prices in the region of 25-30usd it is very difficult for refineries in the US to compete and this is also evident in the fact that the number of fracking rigs dropped from 1608 in October 2014 to 747 in April 2015. So where do we stand now?
The first half of the year was brilliant for the tanker owners and nobody expected rates to remain as firm during the summer season as well, when seasonality always traditionally takes its toll on rates. The low oil prices environment supported dry cargo owners to achieve sustainable margins and tanker owners to gain more out of a very good market. The recent negative reversal though has been puzzling everyone. Despite the fact that a number of tanker owners believe that market will reverse course and start firming once again, it seems unlikely that year highs could be reached any time soon amidst the shock waves China keeps sending in the markets around the world.
Saying that, in the next couple of months many refineries are going into their scheduled semi-annual maintenance and about 70 million tons of crude will have to be stored, either on ships or in shore tanks. As demand cannot match supply and global growth is very likely to further decelerate, the tanker market is expected to remain somewhere around current levels, with lower oil prices supporting owners through smaller operating costs, helping them to achieve sustainable margins. The need for storage is at the same time expected to increase demand for dwt for 1-2 months period charters.
OPEC is the only entity that can save prices from further collapsing but there are currently no signs that the organization is heading towards this direction anytime soon, despite the fact that the consensus to start supporting prices is growing within its members. The next meeting scheduled in December is probably too far in the future to prevent a further significant drop even if it called for this much needed production cut. In the meantime, if world economies are set for further headwinds in the future, even cheaper oil doesn’t sound too bad.
By Stratos Tiniakos
Tanker Chartering Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Friday, 28 August 15
DRY BULK SHIP OWNER OPTIMISTIC ABOUT FUTURE PROSPECTS OF THE MARKET: NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
Dry bulk ship owner Golden Ocean appeared optimistic on the long term prospects of the dry bulk market, mainly thanks to an expected resolution of ...
Friday, 28 August 15
COAL PRODUCTION IN THE U.S. FOR THE WEEK ENDING AUGUST 22 ROSE FOR THE THIRD STRAIGHT WEEK
COALspot.com – United States the world’s second largest coal producer has produced approximately totaled an estimated 18.5 million shor ...
Friday, 28 August 15
BANPU STRENGTHENS GROWTH PLAN
Coal Business: Asia-Pacific Synergies Increase Competitiveness for Premium Export Market.
Banpu Public Company Limited (BANPU) strengthens its ...
Thursday, 27 August 15
RATES FOR CAPES REMAINED ON A FREE FALL LAST WEEK - INTERMODAL
COALspot.com: Keeping everyone on their toes with the volatility seen in August, the Dry Bulk market undoubtedly remains a steady provider of chall ...
Wednesday, 26 August 15
2Q'16 FOB INDONESIA COAL SWAP FALLS NEARLY 4.76 PER CENT M-O-M
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swap for delivery 4Q 2015 declined month on month and week over week.
The 4Q swap was declined $ 2.20 (-5.13%) p ...
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- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Australian Coal Association
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- White Energy Company Limited
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- PTC India Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
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