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Wednesday, 26 August 15
MARKET INSIGHT - STRATOS TINIAKOS
 It’s always interesting to comment on the market when big economies around the world are facing troubling times. Following the collapse of the Chinese stock market, the devaluation of the country’s currency a few days ago gave even to those who were optimistic in regards to global growth, more reasons to believe that the state of the economy of the world’s 2nd biggest oil consumer is not as strong as originally thought and possibly reflective of other developed economies as well. The sharp fall of oil prices is also partly indicative of these fundamentals.
Almost ten years ago oil was trading at USD46pbl when demand from China started pushing prices up, to a point that these reached almost USD160 pbl just before world economies went into recession. The oil supply glut is now pushing prices further down; with the less optimistic analysts believing that we could even see the 25 mark sooner rather than later.
The fall in prices that we are now witnessing was first predicted back in the middle of 2013, as easing of the Iranian sanctions was being discussed, Libya was about to start production again in a post-Gaddafi era and increased US production through fracking was taking place.
Many believe that the current collapse in prices is engineered by Saudi Arabia in an effort to knock out the US production as it is estimated that the cost of production of a fracking rig, including the financing cost, is about 70usd per barrel. So with oil prices in the region of 25-30usd it is very difficult for refineries in the US to compete and this is also evident in the fact that the number of fracking rigs dropped from 1608 in October 2014 to 747 in April 2015. So where do we stand now?
The first half of the year was brilliant for the tanker owners and nobody expected rates to remain as firm during the summer season as well, when seasonality always traditionally takes its toll on rates. The low oil prices environment supported dry cargo owners to achieve sustainable margins and tanker owners to gain more out of a very good market. The recent negative reversal though has been puzzling everyone. Despite the fact that a number of tanker owners believe that market will reverse course and start firming once again, it seems unlikely that year highs could be reached any time soon amidst the shock waves China keeps sending in the markets around the world.
Saying that, in the next couple of months many refineries are going into their scheduled semi-annual maintenance and about 70 million tons of crude will have to be stored, either on ships or in shore tanks. As demand cannot match supply and global growth is very likely to further decelerate, the tanker market is expected to remain somewhere around current levels, with lower oil prices supporting owners through smaller operating costs, helping them to achieve sustainable margins. The need for storage is at the same time expected to increase demand for dwt for 1-2 months period charters.
OPEC is the only entity that can save prices from further collapsing but there are currently no signs that the organization is heading towards this direction anytime soon, despite the fact that the consensus to start supporting prices is growing within its members. The next meeting scheduled in December is probably too far in the future to prevent a further significant drop even if it called for this much needed production cut. In the meantime, if world economies are set for further headwinds in the future, even cheaper oil doesn’t sound too bad.
By Stratos Tiniakos
Tanker Chartering Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Friday, 28 August 15
DRY BULK SHIP OWNER OPTIMISTIC ABOUT FUTURE PROSPECTS OF THE MARKET: NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
Dry bulk ship owner Golden Ocean appeared optimistic on the long term prospects of the dry bulk market, mainly thanks to an expected resolution of ...
Friday, 28 August 15
COAL PRODUCTION IN THE U.S. FOR THE WEEK ENDING AUGUST 22 ROSE FOR THE THIRD STRAIGHT WEEK
COALspot.com – United States the world’s second largest coal producer has produced approximately totaled an estimated 18.5 million shor ...
Friday, 28 August 15
BANPU STRENGTHENS GROWTH PLAN
Coal Business: Asia-Pacific Synergies Increase Competitiveness for Premium Export Market.
Banpu Public Company Limited (BANPU) strengthens its ...
Thursday, 27 August 15
RATES FOR CAPES REMAINED ON A FREE FALL LAST WEEK - INTERMODAL
COALspot.com: Keeping everyone on their toes with the volatility seen in August, the Dry Bulk market undoubtedly remains a steady provider of chall ...
Wednesday, 26 August 15
2Q'16 FOB INDONESIA COAL SWAP FALLS NEARLY 4.76 PER CENT M-O-M
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swap for delivery 4Q 2015 declined month on month and week over week.
The 4Q swap was declined $ 2.20 (-5.13%) p ...
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- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- White Energy Company Limited
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Australian Coal Association
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Economic Council, Georgia
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