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Wednesday, 26 August 15
MARKET INSIGHT - STRATOS TINIAKOS
 It’s always interesting to comment on the market when big economies around the world are facing troubling times. Following the collapse of the Chinese stock market, the devaluation of the country’s currency a few days ago gave even to those who were optimistic in regards to global growth, more reasons to believe that the state of the economy of the world’s 2nd biggest oil consumer is not as strong as originally thought and possibly reflective of other developed economies as well. The sharp fall of oil prices is also partly indicative of these fundamentals.
Almost ten years ago oil was trading at USD46pbl when demand from China started pushing prices up, to a point that these reached almost USD160 pbl just before world economies went into recession. The oil supply glut is now pushing prices further down; with the less optimistic analysts believing that we could even see the 25 mark sooner rather than later.
The fall in prices that we are now witnessing was first predicted back in the middle of 2013, as easing of the Iranian sanctions was being discussed, Libya was about to start production again in a post-Gaddafi era and increased US production through fracking was taking place.
Many believe that the current collapse in prices is engineered by Saudi Arabia in an effort to knock out the US production as it is estimated that the cost of production of a fracking rig, including the financing cost, is about 70usd per barrel. So with oil prices in the region of 25-30usd it is very difficult for refineries in the US to compete and this is also evident in the fact that the number of fracking rigs dropped from 1608 in October 2014 to 747 in April 2015. So where do we stand now?
The first half of the year was brilliant for the tanker owners and nobody expected rates to remain as firm during the summer season as well, when seasonality always traditionally takes its toll on rates. The low oil prices environment supported dry cargo owners to achieve sustainable margins and tanker owners to gain more out of a very good market. The recent negative reversal though has been puzzling everyone. Despite the fact that a number of tanker owners believe that market will reverse course and start firming once again, it seems unlikely that year highs could be reached any time soon amidst the shock waves China keeps sending in the markets around the world.
Saying that, in the next couple of months many refineries are going into their scheduled semi-annual maintenance and about 70 million tons of crude will have to be stored, either on ships or in shore tanks. As demand cannot match supply and global growth is very likely to further decelerate, the tanker market is expected to remain somewhere around current levels, with lower oil prices supporting owners through smaller operating costs, helping them to achieve sustainable margins. The need for storage is at the same time expected to increase demand for dwt for 1-2 months period charters.
OPEC is the only entity that can save prices from further collapsing but there are currently no signs that the organization is heading towards this direction anytime soon, despite the fact that the consensus to start supporting prices is growing within its members. The next meeting scheduled in December is probably too far in the future to prevent a further significant drop even if it called for this much needed production cut. In the meantime, if world economies are set for further headwinds in the future, even cheaper oil doesn’t sound too bad.
By Stratos Tiniakos
Tanker Chartering Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 28 August 15
DRY BULK SHIP OWNER OPTIMISTIC ABOUT FUTURE PROSPECTS OF THE MARKET: NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
Dry bulk ship owner Golden Ocean appeared optimistic on the long term prospects of the dry bulk market, mainly thanks to an expected resolution of ...
Friday, 28 August 15
COAL PRODUCTION IN THE U.S. FOR THE WEEK ENDING AUGUST 22 ROSE FOR THE THIRD STRAIGHT WEEK
COALspot.com – United States the world’s second largest coal producer has produced approximately totaled an estimated 18.5 million shor ...
Friday, 28 August 15
BANPU STRENGTHENS GROWTH PLAN
Coal Business: Asia-Pacific Synergies Increase Competitiveness for Premium Export Market.
Banpu Public Company Limited (BANPU) strengthens its ...
Thursday, 27 August 15
RATES FOR CAPES REMAINED ON A FREE FALL LAST WEEK - INTERMODAL
COALspot.com: Keeping everyone on their toes with the volatility seen in August, the Dry Bulk market undoubtedly remains a steady provider of chall ...
Wednesday, 26 August 15
2Q'16 FOB INDONESIA COAL SWAP FALLS NEARLY 4.76 PER CENT M-O-M
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swap for delivery 4Q 2015 declined month on month and week over week.
The 4Q swap was declined $ 2.20 (-5.13%) p ...
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- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Australian Coal Association
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- PTC India Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- White Energy Company Limited
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
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