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Wednesday, 26 August 15
MARKET INSIGHT - STRATOS TINIAKOS
 It’s always interesting to comment on the market when big economies around the world are facing troubling times. Following the collapse of the Chinese stock market, the devaluation of the country’s currency a few days ago gave even to those who were optimistic in regards to global growth, more reasons to believe that the state of the economy of the world’s 2nd biggest oil consumer is not as strong as originally thought and possibly reflective of other developed economies as well. The sharp fall of oil prices is also partly indicative of these fundamentals.
Almost ten years ago oil was trading at USD46pbl when demand from China started pushing prices up, to a point that these reached almost USD160 pbl just before world economies went into recession. The oil supply glut is now pushing prices further down; with the less optimistic analysts believing that we could even see the 25 mark sooner rather than later.
The fall in prices that we are now witnessing was first predicted back in the middle of 2013, as easing of the Iranian sanctions was being discussed, Libya was about to start production again in a post-Gaddafi era and increased US production through fracking was taking place.
Many believe that the current collapse in prices is engineered by Saudi Arabia in an effort to knock out the US production as it is estimated that the cost of production of a fracking rig, including the financing cost, is about 70usd per barrel. So with oil prices in the region of 25-30usd it is very difficult for refineries in the US to compete and this is also evident in the fact that the number of fracking rigs dropped from 1608 in October 2014 to 747 in April 2015. So where do we stand now?
The first half of the year was brilliant for the tanker owners and nobody expected rates to remain as firm during the summer season as well, when seasonality always traditionally takes its toll on rates. The low oil prices environment supported dry cargo owners to achieve sustainable margins and tanker owners to gain more out of a very good market. The recent negative reversal though has been puzzling everyone. Despite the fact that a number of tanker owners believe that market will reverse course and start firming once again, it seems unlikely that year highs could be reached any time soon amidst the shock waves China keeps sending in the markets around the world.
Saying that, in the next couple of months many refineries are going into their scheduled semi-annual maintenance and about 70 million tons of crude will have to be stored, either on ships or in shore tanks. As demand cannot match supply and global growth is very likely to further decelerate, the tanker market is expected to remain somewhere around current levels, with lower oil prices supporting owners through smaller operating costs, helping them to achieve sustainable margins. The need for storage is at the same time expected to increase demand for dwt for 1-2 months period charters.
OPEC is the only entity that can save prices from further collapsing but there are currently no signs that the organization is heading towards this direction anytime soon, despite the fact that the consensus to start supporting prices is growing within its members. The next meeting scheduled in December is probably too far in the future to prevent a further significant drop even if it called for this much needed production cut. In the meantime, if world economies are set for further headwinds in the future, even cheaper oil doesn’t sound too bad.
By Stratos Tiniakos
Tanker Chartering Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Friday, 28 August 15
DRY BULK SHIP OWNER OPTIMISTIC ABOUT FUTURE PROSPECTS OF THE MARKET: NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
Dry bulk ship owner Golden Ocean appeared optimistic on the long term prospects of the dry bulk market, mainly thanks to an expected resolution of ...
Friday, 28 August 15
COAL PRODUCTION IN THE U.S. FOR THE WEEK ENDING AUGUST 22 ROSE FOR THE THIRD STRAIGHT WEEK
COALspot.com – United States the world’s second largest coal producer has produced approximately totaled an estimated 18.5 million shor ...
Friday, 28 August 15
BANPU STRENGTHENS GROWTH PLAN
Coal Business: Asia-Pacific Synergies Increase Competitiveness for Premium Export Market.
Banpu Public Company Limited (BANPU) strengthens its ...
Thursday, 27 August 15
RATES FOR CAPES REMAINED ON A FREE FALL LAST WEEK - INTERMODAL
COALspot.com: Keeping everyone on their toes with the volatility seen in August, the Dry Bulk market undoubtedly remains a steady provider of chall ...
Wednesday, 26 August 15
2Q'16 FOB INDONESIA COAL SWAP FALLS NEARLY 4.76 PER CENT M-O-M
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swap for delivery 4Q 2015 declined month on month and week over week.
The 4Q swap was declined $ 2.20 (-5.13%) p ...
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- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- MS Steel International - UAE
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- White Energy Company Limited
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- The University of Queensland
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Planning Commission, India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Australian Coal Association
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
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