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Wednesday, 26 August 15
MARKET INSIGHT - STRATOS TINIAKOS
 It’s always interesting to comment on the market when big economies around the world are facing troubling times. Following the collapse of the Chinese stock market, the devaluation of the country’s currency a few days ago gave even to those who were optimistic in regards to global growth, more reasons to believe that the state of the economy of the world’s 2nd biggest oil consumer is not as strong as originally thought and possibly reflective of other developed economies as well. The sharp fall of oil prices is also partly indicative of these fundamentals.
Almost ten years ago oil was trading at USD46pbl when demand from China started pushing prices up, to a point that these reached almost USD160 pbl just before world economies went into recession. The oil supply glut is now pushing prices further down; with the less optimistic analysts believing that we could even see the 25 mark sooner rather than later.
The fall in prices that we are now witnessing was first predicted back in the middle of 2013, as easing of the Iranian sanctions was being discussed, Libya was about to start production again in a post-Gaddafi era and increased US production through fracking was taking place.
Many believe that the current collapse in prices is engineered by Saudi Arabia in an effort to knock out the US production as it is estimated that the cost of production of a fracking rig, including the financing cost, is about 70usd per barrel. So with oil prices in the region of 25-30usd it is very difficult for refineries in the US to compete and this is also evident in the fact that the number of fracking rigs dropped from 1608 in October 2014 to 747 in April 2015. So where do we stand now?
The first half of the year was brilliant for the tanker owners and nobody expected rates to remain as firm during the summer season as well, when seasonality always traditionally takes its toll on rates. The low oil prices environment supported dry cargo owners to achieve sustainable margins and tanker owners to gain more out of a very good market. The recent negative reversal though has been puzzling everyone. Despite the fact that a number of tanker owners believe that market will reverse course and start firming once again, it seems unlikely that year highs could be reached any time soon amidst the shock waves China keeps sending in the markets around the world.
Saying that, in the next couple of months many refineries are going into their scheduled semi-annual maintenance and about 70 million tons of crude will have to be stored, either on ships or in shore tanks. As demand cannot match supply and global growth is very likely to further decelerate, the tanker market is expected to remain somewhere around current levels, with lower oil prices supporting owners through smaller operating costs, helping them to achieve sustainable margins. The need for storage is at the same time expected to increase demand for dwt for 1-2 months period charters.
OPEC is the only entity that can save prices from further collapsing but there are currently no signs that the organization is heading towards this direction anytime soon, despite the fact that the consensus to start supporting prices is growing within its members. The next meeting scheduled in December is probably too far in the future to prevent a further significant drop even if it called for this much needed production cut. In the meantime, if world economies are set for further headwinds in the future, even cheaper oil doesn’t sound too bad.
By Stratos Tiniakos
Tanker Chartering Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Tuesday, 18 August 15
DRY BULK: MARKETS HAVE CONTINUED TO BE SEVERELY CHALLENGED - CLARKSONS
The dry bulk markets have continued to be severely challenged with freight rates falling during the period to below operating expense. The Baltic D ...
Tuesday, 18 August 15
1Q'16 FOB RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAP FALLS BELOW $54 A TON
COALspot.com: API4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap for delivery 4Q' 2015 declined month over month and week over week.
The 4Q swap was down US$ ...
Tuesday, 18 August 15
2Q' 16 FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAP CLOSED AT $43 PER MT W/E 14 AUGUST
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for 4Q’ 2015 delivery down $ 1.08 per MT (-2.46%) month over month to US$ 42.82 per mt. The swap ...
Monday, 17 August 15
TROUBLED DRY BULK MARKET FACES TURMOIL AS CHINESE COAL IMPORTS REMAIN WEAK - BIMCO
The demand for coal in China continues to diminish. So much in fact that India is expected to succeed China as the world’s largest imp ...
Monday, 17 August 15
INDONESIAN THERMAL COAL REFERENCE PRICE HITS RECORD LOW AGAIN!
COALspot.com - The Director General of Mineral and Coal of Indonesia revised down Indonesian coal benchmark price once again to US$ 59.14 per MT fo ...
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- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Australian Coal Association
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Planning Commission, India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- White Energy Company Limited
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- The University of Queensland
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
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