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Wednesday, 26 August 15
MARKET INSIGHT - STRATOS TINIAKOS
 It’s always interesting to comment on the market when big economies around the world are facing troubling times. Following the collapse of the Chinese stock market, the devaluation of the country’s currency a few days ago gave even to those who were optimistic in regards to global growth, more reasons to believe that the state of the economy of the world’s 2nd biggest oil consumer is not as strong as originally thought and possibly reflective of other developed economies as well. The sharp fall of oil prices is also partly indicative of these fundamentals.
Almost ten years ago oil was trading at USD46pbl when demand from China started pushing prices up, to a point that these reached almost USD160 pbl just before world economies went into recession. The oil supply glut is now pushing prices further down; with the less optimistic analysts believing that we could even see the 25 mark sooner rather than later.
The fall in prices that we are now witnessing was first predicted back in the middle of 2013, as easing of the Iranian sanctions was being discussed, Libya was about to start production again in a post-Gaddafi era and increased US production through fracking was taking place.
Many believe that the current collapse in prices is engineered by Saudi Arabia in an effort to knock out the US production as it is estimated that the cost of production of a fracking rig, including the financing cost, is about 70usd per barrel. So with oil prices in the region of 25-30usd it is very difficult for refineries in the US to compete and this is also evident in the fact that the number of fracking rigs dropped from 1608 in October 2014 to 747 in April 2015. So where do we stand now?
The first half of the year was brilliant for the tanker owners and nobody expected rates to remain as firm during the summer season as well, when seasonality always traditionally takes its toll on rates. The low oil prices environment supported dry cargo owners to achieve sustainable margins and tanker owners to gain more out of a very good market. The recent negative reversal though has been puzzling everyone. Despite the fact that a number of tanker owners believe that market will reverse course and start firming once again, it seems unlikely that year highs could be reached any time soon amidst the shock waves China keeps sending in the markets around the world.
Saying that, in the next couple of months many refineries are going into their scheduled semi-annual maintenance and about 70 million tons of crude will have to be stored, either on ships or in shore tanks. As demand cannot match supply and global growth is very likely to further decelerate, the tanker market is expected to remain somewhere around current levels, with lower oil prices supporting owners through smaller operating costs, helping them to achieve sustainable margins. The need for storage is at the same time expected to increase demand for dwt for 1-2 months period charters.
OPEC is the only entity that can save prices from further collapsing but there are currently no signs that the organization is heading towards this direction anytime soon, despite the fact that the consensus to start supporting prices is growing within its members. The next meeting scheduled in December is probably too far in the future to prevent a further significant drop even if it called for this much needed production cut. In the meantime, if world economies are set for further headwinds in the future, even cheaper oil doesn’t sound too bad.
By Stratos Tiniakos
Tanker Chartering Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 17 August 15
CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAPS CONTINUE TO HEAD SOUTH
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for 4Q’ 2015 delivery declined just US cents 40 (1.05%) per MT month over month.
A commodi ...
Sunday, 16 August 15
INDONESIA TO INDIA FREIGHT RATES ARE EXPECTED TO STEADY NEXT WEEK
COALspot.com: The BDI softened 12.08 per cent to 1055 points this week due to weakening of cape index which was fell 25 per cent week over week to ...
Friday, 14 August 15
FOB INDONESIA COAL SWAP SHOWING NO MOVEMENT THIS PAST WEEK
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swap for delivery 4Q 2015 declined month on month and week over week, this past week.
The 4Q swap was declined $ ...
Friday, 14 August 15
U.S. COAL PRODUCTION UP 2.9 PER CENT THIS WEEK
COALspot.com – United States the world’s second largest coal producer has produced approximately totaled an estimated 18.2 million shor ...
Friday, 14 August 15
CONDITIONS AND COMPLEXITIES IN A TRIPARTITE AGREEMENT: BE SPECIFIC! - INCE & CO
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
A tripartite agreement reached between the Owners, the Shippers and the Receivers provided that demurrage be paid to the ...
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- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Australian Coal Association
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
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