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Wednesday, 26 August 15
MARKET INSIGHT - STRATOS TINIAKOS
 It’s always interesting to comment on the market when big economies around the world are facing troubling times. Following the collapse of the Chinese stock market, the devaluation of the country’s currency a few days ago gave even to those who were optimistic in regards to global growth, more reasons to believe that the state of the economy of the world’s 2nd biggest oil consumer is not as strong as originally thought and possibly reflective of other developed economies as well. The sharp fall of oil prices is also partly indicative of these fundamentals.
Almost ten years ago oil was trading at USD46pbl when demand from China started pushing prices up, to a point that these reached almost USD160 pbl just before world economies went into recession. The oil supply glut is now pushing prices further down; with the less optimistic analysts believing that we could even see the 25 mark sooner rather than later.
The fall in prices that we are now witnessing was first predicted back in the middle of 2013, as easing of the Iranian sanctions was being discussed, Libya was about to start production again in a post-Gaddafi era and increased US production through fracking was taking place.
Many believe that the current collapse in prices is engineered by Saudi Arabia in an effort to knock out the US production as it is estimated that the cost of production of a fracking rig, including the financing cost, is about 70usd per barrel. So with oil prices in the region of 25-30usd it is very difficult for refineries in the US to compete and this is also evident in the fact that the number of fracking rigs dropped from 1608 in October 2014 to 747 in April 2015. So where do we stand now?
The first half of the year was brilliant for the tanker owners and nobody expected rates to remain as firm during the summer season as well, when seasonality always traditionally takes its toll on rates. The low oil prices environment supported dry cargo owners to achieve sustainable margins and tanker owners to gain more out of a very good market. The recent negative reversal though has been puzzling everyone. Despite the fact that a number of tanker owners believe that market will reverse course and start firming once again, it seems unlikely that year highs could be reached any time soon amidst the shock waves China keeps sending in the markets around the world.
Saying that, in the next couple of months many refineries are going into their scheduled semi-annual maintenance and about 70 million tons of crude will have to be stored, either on ships or in shore tanks. As demand cannot match supply and global growth is very likely to further decelerate, the tanker market is expected to remain somewhere around current levels, with lower oil prices supporting owners through smaller operating costs, helping them to achieve sustainable margins. The need for storage is at the same time expected to increase demand for dwt for 1-2 months period charters.
OPEC is the only entity that can save prices from further collapsing but there are currently no signs that the organization is heading towards this direction anytime soon, despite the fact that the consensus to start supporting prices is growing within its members. The next meeting scheduled in December is probably too far in the future to prevent a further significant drop even if it called for this much needed production cut. In the meantime, if world economies are set for further headwinds in the future, even cheaper oil doesn’t sound too bad.
By Stratos Tiniakos
Tanker Chartering Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Tuesday, 25 August 15
INDONESIA MINERS' NPLS TO RISE FURTHER, BANK RISKS BUILD - FITCH
The NPLs of Indonesian mine and mine services companies are likely to rise further in the short term, says Fitch Ratings, after reaching multi-year ...
Tuesday, 25 August 15
MINER'S EARNINGS DROP ON FALLING COAL PRICES; Q2'16 FOB RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAP CLOSED AT $ 52.23 A TON
COALspot.com: API4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap for delivery 4Q' 2015 declined month over month and week over week.
The 4Q swap was down US$ ...
Monday, 24 August 15
FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAPS HIT FRESH LOW, DIPPING BELOW $42 A TON
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for 4Q’ 2015 delivery down $ 2.20 per MT (-5.01%) month over month to US$ 41.70 per mt. The swap ...
Monday, 24 August 15
Q1'16 CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP CLOSED AT $ 48.65 PMT
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for 4Q’ 2015 delivery declined just US$ 1.89 (3.74%) per MT month over month.
A commodity ...
Monday, 24 August 15
IS CHINA'S STEEL EXPORTS ENOUGH TO SUPPORT THE FREIGHT MARKET? - BIMCO
No, it’s not enough, you will need lower Chinese iron ore production too in order to keep growing imports of iron ore into China that will su ...
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- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Australian Coal Association
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Planning Commission, India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- The University of Queensland
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
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