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Wednesday, 26 August 15
MARKET INSIGHT - STRATOS TINIAKOS
 It’s always interesting to comment on the market when big economies around the world are facing troubling times. Following the collapse of the Chinese stock market, the devaluation of the country’s currency a few days ago gave even to those who were optimistic in regards to global growth, more reasons to believe that the state of the economy of the world’s 2nd biggest oil consumer is not as strong as originally thought and possibly reflective of other developed economies as well. The sharp fall of oil prices is also partly indicative of these fundamentals.
Almost ten years ago oil was trading at USD46pbl when demand from China started pushing prices up, to a point that these reached almost USD160 pbl just before world economies went into recession. The oil supply glut is now pushing prices further down; with the less optimistic analysts believing that we could even see the 25 mark sooner rather than later.
The fall in prices that we are now witnessing was first predicted back in the middle of 2013, as easing of the Iranian sanctions was being discussed, Libya was about to start production again in a post-Gaddafi era and increased US production through fracking was taking place.
Many believe that the current collapse in prices is engineered by Saudi Arabia in an effort to knock out the US production as it is estimated that the cost of production of a fracking rig, including the financing cost, is about 70usd per barrel. So with oil prices in the region of 25-30usd it is very difficult for refineries in the US to compete and this is also evident in the fact that the number of fracking rigs dropped from 1608 in October 2014 to 747 in April 2015. So where do we stand now?
The first half of the year was brilliant for the tanker owners and nobody expected rates to remain as firm during the summer season as well, when seasonality always traditionally takes its toll on rates. The low oil prices environment supported dry cargo owners to achieve sustainable margins and tanker owners to gain more out of a very good market. The recent negative reversal though has been puzzling everyone. Despite the fact that a number of tanker owners believe that market will reverse course and start firming once again, it seems unlikely that year highs could be reached any time soon amidst the shock waves China keeps sending in the markets around the world.
Saying that, in the next couple of months many refineries are going into their scheduled semi-annual maintenance and about 70 million tons of crude will have to be stored, either on ships or in shore tanks. As demand cannot match supply and global growth is very likely to further decelerate, the tanker market is expected to remain somewhere around current levels, with lower oil prices supporting owners through smaller operating costs, helping them to achieve sustainable margins. The need for storage is at the same time expected to increase demand for dwt for 1-2 months period charters.
OPEC is the only entity that can save prices from further collapsing but there are currently no signs that the organization is heading towards this direction anytime soon, despite the fact that the consensus to start supporting prices is growing within its members. The next meeting scheduled in December is probably too far in the future to prevent a further significant drop even if it called for this much needed production cut. In the meantime, if world economies are set for further headwinds in the future, even cheaper oil doesn’t sound too bad.
By Stratos Tiniakos
Tanker Chartering Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Tuesday, 01 September 15
FOB INDONESIA COAL SWAPS FURTHER SLIDE TO US$ 40.62 PMT; DECLINE 5.34 PERCENT M-O-M
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swap for delivery 4Q 2015 declined month on month and slightly dropped week over week.
The 4Q swap was declined ...
Tuesday, 01 September 15
FOB RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAPS STILL SLIDING; Q2'16 DELIVERY LOST AROUND 6 PERCENT M-O-M
COALspot.com: API4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap for delivery 4Q' 2015 gain week over week but declined month over month.
The 4Q swap was dow ...
Monday, 31 August 15
API 5 FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAP GAINS WEEK OVER WEEK
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for 4Q’ 2015 delivery down $ 1.85 per MT (-4.23%) month over month to US$ 41.87 per mt. The swap ...
Monday, 31 August 15
Q1'16 CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP ENDS DOWN MORE THAN 4 PERCENT MONTH OVER MONTH
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for 4Q’ 2015 delivery declined just US$ 1.91 (3.78%) per MT month over month.
A commodity ...
Sunday, 30 August 15
THE DRY BULK MARKET UNDOUBTEDLY REMAINS WEAK & VOLATILE THIS WEEK
COALspot.com: The BDI slipped further down this week, moving closer to 900 level. This week’s BDI falls 9.15 pct and closed at 903 points. Wh ...
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- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Planning Commission, India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Australian Coal Association
- The University of Queensland
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
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