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Wednesday, 26 August 15
MARKET INSIGHT - STRATOS TINIAKOS
 It’s always interesting to comment on the market when big economies around the world are facing troubling times. Following the collapse of the Chinese stock market, the devaluation of the country’s currency a few days ago gave even to those who were optimistic in regards to global growth, more reasons to believe that the state of the economy of the world’s 2nd biggest oil consumer is not as strong as originally thought and possibly reflective of other developed economies as well. The sharp fall of oil prices is also partly indicative of these fundamentals.
Almost ten years ago oil was trading at USD46pbl when demand from China started pushing prices up, to a point that these reached almost USD160 pbl just before world economies went into recession. The oil supply glut is now pushing prices further down; with the less optimistic analysts believing that we could even see the 25 mark sooner rather than later.
The fall in prices that we are now witnessing was first predicted back in the middle of 2013, as easing of the Iranian sanctions was being discussed, Libya was about to start production again in a post-Gaddafi era and increased US production through fracking was taking place.
Many believe that the current collapse in prices is engineered by Saudi Arabia in an effort to knock out the US production as it is estimated that the cost of production of a fracking rig, including the financing cost, is about 70usd per barrel. So with oil prices in the region of 25-30usd it is very difficult for refineries in the US to compete and this is also evident in the fact that the number of fracking rigs dropped from 1608 in October 2014 to 747 in April 2015. So where do we stand now?
The first half of the year was brilliant for the tanker owners and nobody expected rates to remain as firm during the summer season as well, when seasonality always traditionally takes its toll on rates. The low oil prices environment supported dry cargo owners to achieve sustainable margins and tanker owners to gain more out of a very good market. The recent negative reversal though has been puzzling everyone. Despite the fact that a number of tanker owners believe that market will reverse course and start firming once again, it seems unlikely that year highs could be reached any time soon amidst the shock waves China keeps sending in the markets around the world.
Saying that, in the next couple of months many refineries are going into their scheduled semi-annual maintenance and about 70 million tons of crude will have to be stored, either on ships or in shore tanks. As demand cannot match supply and global growth is very likely to further decelerate, the tanker market is expected to remain somewhere around current levels, with lower oil prices supporting owners through smaller operating costs, helping them to achieve sustainable margins. The need for storage is at the same time expected to increase demand for dwt for 1-2 months period charters.
OPEC is the only entity that can save prices from further collapsing but there are currently no signs that the organization is heading towards this direction anytime soon, despite the fact that the consensus to start supporting prices is growing within its members. The next meeting scheduled in December is probably too far in the future to prevent a further significant drop even if it called for this much needed production cut. In the meantime, if world economies are set for further headwinds in the future, even cheaper oil doesn’t sound too bad.
By Stratos Tiniakos
Tanker Chartering Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 04 September 15
GOVERNORS WILL HAVE THE POWER TO REVOKE MINERS' PERMITS: ENERGY MINISTRY - JG
Starting Oct. 1, Indonesia's governors will lawfully become "executors" in revoking the licenses of miners that fail to secure a &quo ...
Thursday, 03 September 15
MINISTRY OF ENERGY AND MINERAL RESOURCES OF INDONESIA TO REVISE HBA METHODOLOGY
COALspot.com: Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources (ESDM) in process to revise Indonesian Coal Price Reference (HBA) and expected to complete b ...
Thursday, 03 September 15
THE CHINESE STOCK MARKET AND THE CHINESE ECONOMY CONTINUE TO SUBSTANTIALLY AFFECT TRADING - INTERMODAL
The last week of the summer season saw the BDI dipping further on the back of another significant drop in rates for Capes, which brought the market ...
Wednesday, 02 September 15
PORT OF NEWCASTLE SHIPPED 13.46 MMT OF COAL IN JULY; UP 0.66 PER CENT M-O-M
COALspot.com: The Port of Newcastle, Australia’s major trading ports and the world’s largest coal export port, has shipped $1.224 billi ...
Wednesday, 02 September 15
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - GEORGE ILIOPOULOS
In the beginning of the summer period SnP activity was firm with numerous buyers, coming mainly from Greece and the Far East, inspecting ships and ...
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- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Australian Coal Association
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
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