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Wednesday, 26 August 15
MARKET INSIGHT - STRATOS TINIAKOS
 It’s always interesting to comment on the market when big economies around the world are facing troubling times. Following the collapse of the Chinese stock market, the devaluation of the country’s currency a few days ago gave even to those who were optimistic in regards to global growth, more reasons to believe that the state of the economy of the world’s 2nd biggest oil consumer is not as strong as originally thought and possibly reflective of other developed economies as well. The sharp fall of oil prices is also partly indicative of these fundamentals.
Almost ten years ago oil was trading at USD46pbl when demand from China started pushing prices up, to a point that these reached almost USD160 pbl just before world economies went into recession. The oil supply glut is now pushing prices further down; with the less optimistic analysts believing that we could even see the 25 mark sooner rather than later.
The fall in prices that we are now witnessing was first predicted back in the middle of 2013, as easing of the Iranian sanctions was being discussed, Libya was about to start production again in a post-Gaddafi era and increased US production through fracking was taking place.
Many believe that the current collapse in prices is engineered by Saudi Arabia in an effort to knock out the US production as it is estimated that the cost of production of a fracking rig, including the financing cost, is about 70usd per barrel. So with oil prices in the region of 25-30usd it is very difficult for refineries in the US to compete and this is also evident in the fact that the number of fracking rigs dropped from 1608 in October 2014 to 747 in April 2015. So where do we stand now?
The first half of the year was brilliant for the tanker owners and nobody expected rates to remain as firm during the summer season as well, when seasonality always traditionally takes its toll on rates. The low oil prices environment supported dry cargo owners to achieve sustainable margins and tanker owners to gain more out of a very good market. The recent negative reversal though has been puzzling everyone. Despite the fact that a number of tanker owners believe that market will reverse course and start firming once again, it seems unlikely that year highs could be reached any time soon amidst the shock waves China keeps sending in the markets around the world.
Saying that, in the next couple of months many refineries are going into their scheduled semi-annual maintenance and about 70 million tons of crude will have to be stored, either on ships or in shore tanks. As demand cannot match supply and global growth is very likely to further decelerate, the tanker market is expected to remain somewhere around current levels, with lower oil prices supporting owners through smaller operating costs, helping them to achieve sustainable margins. The need for storage is at the same time expected to increase demand for dwt for 1-2 months period charters.
OPEC is the only entity that can save prices from further collapsing but there are currently no signs that the organization is heading towards this direction anytime soon, despite the fact that the consensus to start supporting prices is growing within its members. The next meeting scheduled in December is probably too far in the future to prevent a further significant drop even if it called for this much needed production cut. In the meantime, if world economies are set for further headwinds in the future, even cheaper oil doesn’t sound too bad.
By Stratos Tiniakos
Tanker Chartering Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 04 September 15
GOVERNORS WILL HAVE THE POWER TO REVOKE MINERS' PERMITS: ENERGY MINISTRY - JG
Starting Oct. 1, Indonesia's governors will lawfully become "executors" in revoking the licenses of miners that fail to secure a &quo ...
Thursday, 03 September 15
MINISTRY OF ENERGY AND MINERAL RESOURCES OF INDONESIA TO REVISE HBA METHODOLOGY
COALspot.com: Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources (ESDM) in process to revise Indonesian Coal Price Reference (HBA) and expected to complete b ...
Thursday, 03 September 15
THE CHINESE STOCK MARKET AND THE CHINESE ECONOMY CONTINUE TO SUBSTANTIALLY AFFECT TRADING - INTERMODAL
The last week of the summer season saw the BDI dipping further on the back of another significant drop in rates for Capes, which brought the market ...
Wednesday, 02 September 15
PORT OF NEWCASTLE SHIPPED 13.46 MMT OF COAL IN JULY; UP 0.66 PER CENT M-O-M
COALspot.com: The Port of Newcastle, Australia’s major trading ports and the world’s largest coal export port, has shipped $1.224 billi ...
Wednesday, 02 September 15
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - GEORGE ILIOPOULOS
In the beginning of the summer period SnP activity was firm with numerous buyers, coming mainly from Greece and the Far East, inspecting ships and ...
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- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- White Energy Company Limited
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Planning Commission, India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Australian Coal Association
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
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