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Wednesday, 26 August 15
MARKET INSIGHT - STRATOS TINIAKOS
 It’s always interesting to comment on the market when big economies around the world are facing troubling times. Following the collapse of the Chinese stock market, the devaluation of the country’s currency a few days ago gave even to those who were optimistic in regards to global growth, more reasons to believe that the state of the economy of the world’s 2nd biggest oil consumer is not as strong as originally thought and possibly reflective of other developed economies as well. The sharp fall of oil prices is also partly indicative of these fundamentals.
Almost ten years ago oil was trading at USD46pbl when demand from China started pushing prices up, to a point that these reached almost USD160 pbl just before world economies went into recession. The oil supply glut is now pushing prices further down; with the less optimistic analysts believing that we could even see the 25 mark sooner rather than later.
The fall in prices that we are now witnessing was first predicted back in the middle of 2013, as easing of the Iranian sanctions was being discussed, Libya was about to start production again in a post-Gaddafi era and increased US production through fracking was taking place.
Many believe that the current collapse in prices is engineered by Saudi Arabia in an effort to knock out the US production as it is estimated that the cost of production of a fracking rig, including the financing cost, is about 70usd per barrel. So with oil prices in the region of 25-30usd it is very difficult for refineries in the US to compete and this is also evident in the fact that the number of fracking rigs dropped from 1608 in October 2014 to 747 in April 2015. So where do we stand now?
The first half of the year was brilliant for the tanker owners and nobody expected rates to remain as firm during the summer season as well, when seasonality always traditionally takes its toll on rates. The low oil prices environment supported dry cargo owners to achieve sustainable margins and tanker owners to gain more out of a very good market. The recent negative reversal though has been puzzling everyone. Despite the fact that a number of tanker owners believe that market will reverse course and start firming once again, it seems unlikely that year highs could be reached any time soon amidst the shock waves China keeps sending in the markets around the world.
Saying that, in the next couple of months many refineries are going into their scheduled semi-annual maintenance and about 70 million tons of crude will have to be stored, either on ships or in shore tanks. As demand cannot match supply and global growth is very likely to further decelerate, the tanker market is expected to remain somewhere around current levels, with lower oil prices supporting owners through smaller operating costs, helping them to achieve sustainable margins. The need for storage is at the same time expected to increase demand for dwt for 1-2 months period charters.
OPEC is the only entity that can save prices from further collapsing but there are currently no signs that the organization is heading towards this direction anytime soon, despite the fact that the consensus to start supporting prices is growing within its members. The next meeting scheduled in December is probably too far in the future to prevent a further significant drop even if it called for this much needed production cut. In the meantime, if world economies are set for further headwinds in the future, even cheaper oil doesn’t sound too bad.
By Stratos Tiniakos
Tanker Chartering Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Monday, 07 September 15
CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAPS ROSE 1.1 PER CENT WEEK OVER WEEK
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for 4Q’ 2015 delivery declined just US$ 1.52 (3 %) per MT month over month.
A commodity sw ...
Sunday, 06 September 15
AUTOMATION AND TECHNOLOGY IS CERTAINLY PART OF THE SOLUTION FOR IMPROVING PERFORMANCE AND EFFICIENCY TO MAKE THE MINE OPERATIONS MORE PROFITABLE, HOWEVER............ - LUKE JALSEVAC
"The Technology and Innovation in Mining 2015" production team at Information Exchange Group interviewed Luke Jalsevac, Director, Busines ...
Sunday, 06 September 15
THE CAPE SIZE INDEX ROSE 10.83 PER CENT WEEK OVER WEEK
COALspot.com: The BDI, the Baltic exchange's main sea freight index, which tracks rates for ships carrying dry bulk commodities, declined o ...
Saturday, 05 September 15
DRY BULK MARKET MAY SUFFER NOW, BUT IS BOUND FOR A RECOVERY THANKS TO A LIMITED FUTURE FLEET GROWTH - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
The slow increase of dry bulk tonnage growth this year could turn into a solid indicator of the market’s future prospects. According to a rec ...
Friday, 04 September 15
U.S. COAL PRODUCTION FOR THE W/E AUGUST 29, UP SLIGHTLY; FALL 4.5 PERCENT Y-Y: EIA
COALspot.com – United States the world’s second largest coal producer has produced approximately totaled an estimated 18.7 million shor ...
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- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Planning Commission, India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Economic Council, Georgia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- The University of Queensland
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Australian Coal Association
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- PTC India Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
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