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Wednesday, 26 August 15
MARKET INSIGHT - STRATOS TINIAKOS
 It’s always interesting to comment on the market when big economies around the world are facing troubling times. Following the collapse of the Chinese stock market, the devaluation of the country’s currency a few days ago gave even to those who were optimistic in regards to global growth, more reasons to believe that the state of the economy of the world’s 2nd biggest oil consumer is not as strong as originally thought and possibly reflective of other developed economies as well. The sharp fall of oil prices is also partly indicative of these fundamentals.
Almost ten years ago oil was trading at USD46pbl when demand from China started pushing prices up, to a point that these reached almost USD160 pbl just before world economies went into recession. The oil supply glut is now pushing prices further down; with the less optimistic analysts believing that we could even see the 25 mark sooner rather than later.
The fall in prices that we are now witnessing was first predicted back in the middle of 2013, as easing of the Iranian sanctions was being discussed, Libya was about to start production again in a post-Gaddafi era and increased US production through fracking was taking place.
Many believe that the current collapse in prices is engineered by Saudi Arabia in an effort to knock out the US production as it is estimated that the cost of production of a fracking rig, including the financing cost, is about 70usd per barrel. So with oil prices in the region of 25-30usd it is very difficult for refineries in the US to compete and this is also evident in the fact that the number of fracking rigs dropped from 1608 in October 2014 to 747 in April 2015. So where do we stand now?
The first half of the year was brilliant for the tanker owners and nobody expected rates to remain as firm during the summer season as well, when seasonality always traditionally takes its toll on rates. The low oil prices environment supported dry cargo owners to achieve sustainable margins and tanker owners to gain more out of a very good market. The recent negative reversal though has been puzzling everyone. Despite the fact that a number of tanker owners believe that market will reverse course and start firming once again, it seems unlikely that year highs could be reached any time soon amidst the shock waves China keeps sending in the markets around the world.
Saying that, in the next couple of months many refineries are going into their scheduled semi-annual maintenance and about 70 million tons of crude will have to be stored, either on ships or in shore tanks. As demand cannot match supply and global growth is very likely to further decelerate, the tanker market is expected to remain somewhere around current levels, with lower oil prices supporting owners through smaller operating costs, helping them to achieve sustainable margins. The need for storage is at the same time expected to increase demand for dwt for 1-2 months period charters.
OPEC is the only entity that can save prices from further collapsing but there are currently no signs that the organization is heading towards this direction anytime soon, despite the fact that the consensus to start supporting prices is growing within its members. The next meeting scheduled in December is probably too far in the future to prevent a further significant drop even if it called for this much needed production cut. In the meantime, if world economies are set for further headwinds in the future, even cheaper oil doesn’t sound too bad.
By Stratos Tiniakos
Tanker Chartering Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Monday, 07 September 15
CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAPS ROSE 1.1 PER CENT WEEK OVER WEEK
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for 4Q’ 2015 delivery declined just US$ 1.52 (3 %) per MT month over month.
A commodity sw ...
Sunday, 06 September 15
AUTOMATION AND TECHNOLOGY IS CERTAINLY PART OF THE SOLUTION FOR IMPROVING PERFORMANCE AND EFFICIENCY TO MAKE THE MINE OPERATIONS MORE PROFITABLE, HOWEVER............ - LUKE JALSEVAC
"The Technology and Innovation in Mining 2015" production team at Information Exchange Group interviewed Luke Jalsevac, Director, Busines ...
Sunday, 06 September 15
THE CAPE SIZE INDEX ROSE 10.83 PER CENT WEEK OVER WEEK
COALspot.com: The BDI, the Baltic exchange's main sea freight index, which tracks rates for ships carrying dry bulk commodities, declined o ...
Saturday, 05 September 15
DRY BULK MARKET MAY SUFFER NOW, BUT IS BOUND FOR A RECOVERY THANKS TO A LIMITED FUTURE FLEET GROWTH - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
The slow increase of dry bulk tonnage growth this year could turn into a solid indicator of the market’s future prospects. According to a rec ...
Friday, 04 September 15
U.S. COAL PRODUCTION FOR THE W/E AUGUST 29, UP SLIGHTLY; FALL 4.5 PERCENT Y-Y: EIA
COALspot.com – United States the world’s second largest coal producer has produced approximately totaled an estimated 18.7 million shor ...
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- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- The University of Queensland
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Planning Commission, India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- White Energy Company Limited
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- PTC India Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
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