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Wednesday, 26 August 15
MARKET INSIGHT - STRATOS TINIAKOS
 It’s always interesting to comment on the market when big economies around the world are facing troubling times. Following the collapse of the Chinese stock market, the devaluation of the country’s currency a few days ago gave even to those who were optimistic in regards to global growth, more reasons to believe that the state of the economy of the world’s 2nd biggest oil consumer is not as strong as originally thought and possibly reflective of other developed economies as well. The sharp fall of oil prices is also partly indicative of these fundamentals.
Almost ten years ago oil was trading at USD46pbl when demand from China started pushing prices up, to a point that these reached almost USD160 pbl just before world economies went into recession. The oil supply glut is now pushing prices further down; with the less optimistic analysts believing that we could even see the 25 mark sooner rather than later.
The fall in prices that we are now witnessing was first predicted back in the middle of 2013, as easing of the Iranian sanctions was being discussed, Libya was about to start production again in a post-Gaddafi era and increased US production through fracking was taking place.
Many believe that the current collapse in prices is engineered by Saudi Arabia in an effort to knock out the US production as it is estimated that the cost of production of a fracking rig, including the financing cost, is about 70usd per barrel. So with oil prices in the region of 25-30usd it is very difficult for refineries in the US to compete and this is also evident in the fact that the number of fracking rigs dropped from 1608 in October 2014 to 747 in April 2015. So where do we stand now?
The first half of the year was brilliant for the tanker owners and nobody expected rates to remain as firm during the summer season as well, when seasonality always traditionally takes its toll on rates. The low oil prices environment supported dry cargo owners to achieve sustainable margins and tanker owners to gain more out of a very good market. The recent negative reversal though has been puzzling everyone. Despite the fact that a number of tanker owners believe that market will reverse course and start firming once again, it seems unlikely that year highs could be reached any time soon amidst the shock waves China keeps sending in the markets around the world.
Saying that, in the next couple of months many refineries are going into their scheduled semi-annual maintenance and about 70 million tons of crude will have to be stored, either on ships or in shore tanks. As demand cannot match supply and global growth is very likely to further decelerate, the tanker market is expected to remain somewhere around current levels, with lower oil prices supporting owners through smaller operating costs, helping them to achieve sustainable margins. The need for storage is at the same time expected to increase demand for dwt for 1-2 months period charters.
OPEC is the only entity that can save prices from further collapsing but there are currently no signs that the organization is heading towards this direction anytime soon, despite the fact that the consensus to start supporting prices is growing within its members. The next meeting scheduled in December is probably too far in the future to prevent a further significant drop even if it called for this much needed production cut. In the meantime, if world economies are set for further headwinds in the future, even cheaper oil doesn’t sound too bad.
By Stratos Tiniakos
Tanker Chartering Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Wednesday, 09 September 15
FOB INDONESIA COAL SWAP LOSE GROUND ON SLOWING DEMAND
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swap for delivery 4Q 2015 declined month on month and week over week.
The 4Q swap declined $ 1.92 (-4.52%) per t ...
Tuesday, 08 September 15
FOB RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAPS CONTINUE TO SHOW DECLINING TREND
COALspot.com: API4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap for delivery 4Q' 2015 declined week over week and month over month.
The 4Q swap was down US$ ...
Tuesday, 08 September 15
GANGAVARAM PORT IN INDIA DISCHARGES RECORD 112,599 MT OF STEAM COAL IN 24 HOURS
COALspot.com: Gangavaram Port, an all weather, multipurpose port with water depth up-to 21 meters, capable of handling fully laden Super Cap ...
Monday, 07 September 15
THE MINE OF THE FUTURE WILL HAVE ONLY TWO EMPLOYEES, A MAN AND A DOG - SCOTT MCGOWAN
"The Technology and Innovation in Mining 2015" production team at Information Exchange Group interviewed Scott Mcgowan, Director, Global ...
Monday, 07 September 15
FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAP FOR Q2' 16 DELIVERY CLOSED US CENTS 25 LOWER COMPARED TO Q4' 15
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for 4Q’ 2015 delivery declined $0.73 per MT (-1.68%) month over month to US$ 42.65 per mt. The sw ...
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- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- VISA Power Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Planning Commission, India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
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