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Wednesday, 26 August 15
MARKET INSIGHT - STRATOS TINIAKOS
 It’s always interesting to comment on the market when big economies around the world are facing troubling times. Following the collapse of the Chinese stock market, the devaluation of the country’s currency a few days ago gave even to those who were optimistic in regards to global growth, more reasons to believe that the state of the economy of the world’s 2nd biggest oil consumer is not as strong as originally thought and possibly reflective of other developed economies as well. The sharp fall of oil prices is also partly indicative of these fundamentals.
Almost ten years ago oil was trading at USD46pbl when demand from China started pushing prices up, to a point that these reached almost USD160 pbl just before world economies went into recession. The oil supply glut is now pushing prices further down; with the less optimistic analysts believing that we could even see the 25 mark sooner rather than later.
The fall in prices that we are now witnessing was first predicted back in the middle of 2013, as easing of the Iranian sanctions was being discussed, Libya was about to start production again in a post-Gaddafi era and increased US production through fracking was taking place.
Many believe that the current collapse in prices is engineered by Saudi Arabia in an effort to knock out the US production as it is estimated that the cost of production of a fracking rig, including the financing cost, is about 70usd per barrel. So with oil prices in the region of 25-30usd it is very difficult for refineries in the US to compete and this is also evident in the fact that the number of fracking rigs dropped from 1608 in October 2014 to 747 in April 2015. So where do we stand now?
The first half of the year was brilliant for the tanker owners and nobody expected rates to remain as firm during the summer season as well, when seasonality always traditionally takes its toll on rates. The low oil prices environment supported dry cargo owners to achieve sustainable margins and tanker owners to gain more out of a very good market. The recent negative reversal though has been puzzling everyone. Despite the fact that a number of tanker owners believe that market will reverse course and start firming once again, it seems unlikely that year highs could be reached any time soon amidst the shock waves China keeps sending in the markets around the world.
Saying that, in the next couple of months many refineries are going into their scheduled semi-annual maintenance and about 70 million tons of crude will have to be stored, either on ships or in shore tanks. As demand cannot match supply and global growth is very likely to further decelerate, the tanker market is expected to remain somewhere around current levels, with lower oil prices supporting owners through smaller operating costs, helping them to achieve sustainable margins. The need for storage is at the same time expected to increase demand for dwt for 1-2 months period charters.
OPEC is the only entity that can save prices from further collapsing but there are currently no signs that the organization is heading towards this direction anytime soon, despite the fact that the consensus to start supporting prices is growing within its members. The next meeting scheduled in December is probably too far in the future to prevent a further significant drop even if it called for this much needed production cut. In the meantime, if world economies are set for further headwinds in the future, even cheaper oil doesn’t sound too bad.
By Stratos Tiniakos
Tanker Chartering Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 09 September 15
FOB INDONESIA COAL SWAP LOSE GROUND ON SLOWING DEMAND
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swap for delivery 4Q 2015 declined month on month and week over week.
The 4Q swap declined $ 1.92 (-4.52%) per t ...
Tuesday, 08 September 15
FOB RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAPS CONTINUE TO SHOW DECLINING TREND
COALspot.com: API4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap for delivery 4Q' 2015 declined week over week and month over month.
The 4Q swap was down US$ ...
Tuesday, 08 September 15
GANGAVARAM PORT IN INDIA DISCHARGES RECORD 112,599 MT OF STEAM COAL IN 24 HOURS
COALspot.com: Gangavaram Port, an all weather, multipurpose port with water depth up-to 21 meters, capable of handling fully laden Super Cap ...
Monday, 07 September 15
THE MINE OF THE FUTURE WILL HAVE ONLY TWO EMPLOYEES, A MAN AND A DOG - SCOTT MCGOWAN
"The Technology and Innovation in Mining 2015" production team at Information Exchange Group interviewed Scott Mcgowan, Director, Global ...
Monday, 07 September 15
FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAP FOR Q2' 16 DELIVERY CLOSED US CENTS 25 LOWER COMPARED TO Q4' 15
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for 4Q’ 2015 delivery declined $0.73 per MT (-1.68%) month over month to US$ 42.65 per mt. The sw ...
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- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- PTC India Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- White Energy Company Limited
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
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