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Wednesday, 22 July 15
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - PANOS TSILINGIRIS | INTERMODAL
 In both bulk shipping sectors, there are certain, yet different, reasons and strategies to invest. In the wet, buy once you can charter-out long, while in the dry go long on chartering-in or buy and wait.
In the wet sector, buying a 5-year old Tanker and chartering it out for 3-years would return back a significant part of the investment, namely, 35-40% in all sectors from MR to VLCCs. The Price to 1-year Earnings(annualized 3-year T/C Revenues minus OPEX) ratios for all tanker sectors are in the region of 7.45 and 8.63, well below the several last years’ averages, which renders investments with fixed charters attractive. The anticipated correction in product tankers due to the significant deliveries did not materialize with the demand absorbing the supply. At the same time, the crude sector enjoys the strongest freight market since 2008-09. 15-year old VLCCs, which had reached valuations below $20m in 2012/13 are today valued double that price at shy/rgn $40m. However, the crude tanker order book is increasing and the challenging conditions for shipyards may tempt them to lower/control their prices further to get more new building orders. So, the implied strategy for tankers is buy if you can charter-out long-term at the current firm rates.
In the dry sector, Messrs. Fredriksen, Embiricos, Chandris, Angelicoussis, Martinos extended family, Prokopiou, Hadjiyiannis (Cyprus) are just a few amongst distinguished counter-cyclical peers who have made decisive moves during this 1st half. 15-yo Capes were sold in the $9m’s, about one third of the price paid 15 months earlier.
Interestingly, in the last couple of weeks, prices for modern Kamsarmaxes have increased almost 10% for the first time since March 2014 while competition and the number of inspecting parties is rising. Meantime, the BDI has more than doubled since February’s historical lows. The record scrapping of the 1st half and the limited new building orders during the last year point to an eventual recovery. The short term momentum for asset values is rosy, while the longer (3-year) t/c rates remain extremely depressed and represent a promising alternative vehicle of investment although the owners willing to charter-out on a long basis are scarce.
Finally, we have calculated the ratios of the Price of a 5-year old vessel over its 1-year earnings. We used 3-year T/C rates (on an annualized basis) to remove excess ‘noise’ and since both asset values and longer-T/C rates incorporate certain (ir-)rational expectations. No strong pattern was revealed. Still the strongest incentive to invest is ‘buy as low as it gets’ even if the underlying freight market is depressed or ‘buy and fix long’ when P/E’s are low.
By Panos Tsilingiris
SnP/Newbuildings Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 12 February 15
INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE INCHED DOWN 1.44% IN FEBRUARY
COALspot.com - The Ministry of Energy & Mineral Resources of Indonesia revised down Indonesian coal bench mark price this month to US$ 62.92 pe ...
Thursday, 12 February 15
NEWBUILDING ORDERING ACTIVITY DRAGS ON, AS OWNERS ARE LOOKING FOR LOWER PRICES - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
Ship owners appear to be waiting for lower prices in their dealings with Asian shipyards, as the dry bulk market is at historical lows. According t ...
Wednesday, 11 February 15
DRY BULK MARKET REMAINED UNDER PRESSURE : STABILIZING CAPE MARKET HARDLY HELPED SENTIMENT
COALspot.com: The Dry Bulk market remained under pressure last week, while the stabilizing Cape market hardly helped sentiment.
Greece based s ...
Wednesday, 11 February 15
BDI HITTING THE ALL-TIME LOW; FFA MARKETS NOT SHOWING ANY POSITIVE SIGNS
With the BDI hitting the all-time low and with FFA markets not showing any positive signs for a possible recovery in the near future, pessimism is ...
Tuesday, 10 February 15
IRON ORE MARKET TO REMAIN OVERSUPPLIED IN 2015: PRICE FORECAST $70/T - WOOD MACKENZIE
COALspot.com: With January witnessing the price of iron ore falling to its lowest levels since May 2009, Roger Emslie, Principal Metals & ...
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- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- White Energy Company Limited
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Planning Commission, India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- The University of Queensland
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
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