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Wednesday, 22 July 15
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - PANOS TSILINGIRIS | INTERMODAL
 In both bulk shipping sectors, there are certain, yet different, reasons and strategies to invest. In the wet, buy once you can charter-out long, while in the dry go long on chartering-in or buy and wait.
In the wet sector, buying a 5-year old Tanker and chartering it out for 3-years would return back a significant part of the investment, namely, 35-40% in all sectors from MR to VLCCs. The Price to 1-year Earnings(annualized 3-year T/C Revenues minus OPEX) ratios for all tanker sectors are in the region of 7.45 and 8.63, well below the several last years’ averages, which renders investments with fixed charters attractive. The anticipated correction in product tankers due to the significant deliveries did not materialize with the demand absorbing the supply. At the same time, the crude sector enjoys the strongest freight market since 2008-09. 15-year old VLCCs, which had reached valuations below $20m in 2012/13 are today valued double that price at shy/rgn $40m. However, the crude tanker order book is increasing and the challenging conditions for shipyards may tempt them to lower/control their prices further to get more new building orders. So, the implied strategy for tankers is buy if you can charter-out long-term at the current firm rates.
In the dry sector, Messrs. Fredriksen, Embiricos, Chandris, Angelicoussis, Martinos extended family, Prokopiou, Hadjiyiannis (Cyprus) are just a few amongst distinguished counter-cyclical peers who have made decisive moves during this 1st half. 15-yo Capes were sold in the $9m’s, about one third of the price paid 15 months earlier.
Interestingly, in the last couple of weeks, prices for modern Kamsarmaxes have increased almost 10% for the first time since March 2014 while competition and the number of inspecting parties is rising. Meantime, the BDI has more than doubled since February’s historical lows. The record scrapping of the 1st half and the limited new building orders during the last year point to an eventual recovery. The short term momentum for asset values is rosy, while the longer (3-year) t/c rates remain extremely depressed and represent a promising alternative vehicle of investment although the owners willing to charter-out on a long basis are scarce.
Finally, we have calculated the ratios of the Price of a 5-year old vessel over its 1-year earnings. We used 3-year T/C rates (on an annualized basis) to remove excess ‘noise’ and since both asset values and longer-T/C rates incorporate certain (ir-)rational expectations. No strong pattern was revealed. Still the strongest incentive to invest is ‘buy as low as it gets’ even if the underlying freight market is depressed or ‘buy and fix long’ when P/E’s are low.
By Panos Tsilingiris
SnP/Newbuildings Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 10 February 15
SUB-BIT FOB INDONESIA COAL SWAP ADVANCES 3.79% WEEK ON WEEK
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swaps for delivery Q2' 2015 rose week over week and month on month.
The Q2 swap up US$ 0.85 (+1.81%) month o ...
Tuesday, 10 February 15
FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAPS SURGE WEEK OVER WEEK, RAISING HOPES?
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q2’ 2015 delivery rose US$ 0.95 per MT (+1.91%) week over week and declined US$ 0.06 (-0.12%) ...
Monday, 09 February 15
AUSTRALIAN COAL PRODUCERS BEST POSITIONED IN OVERSUPPLIED MARKET; US MINES MOST AT RISK - WOOD MACKENZIE
In a 2015 global coal outlook report, Wood Mackenzie says that Australia and Indonesian coal suppliers will see some upside in the difficult months ...
Monday, 09 February 15
FOB RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAP GAINS 3.65% TO ONE-MONTH HIGH
COALspot.com: API 4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap for delivery Q2' 2015 surge month over month and day on day.
The Q2 swap has soared US$ 2.1 ...
Monday, 09 February 15
Q2' CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP DECLINED 3.28% TO $ 56.92 W-O-W
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for Q2’ 2015 delivery declined US$ 1.93 (-3.28%) per MT month over month and US$ 0.10 (-0 ...
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- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Australian Coal Association
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Planning Commission, India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
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