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Wednesday, 22 July 15
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - PANOS TSILINGIRIS | INTERMODAL
 In both bulk shipping sectors, there are certain, yet different, reasons and strategies to invest. In the wet, buy once you can charter-out long, while in the dry go long on chartering-in or buy and wait.
In the wet sector, buying a 5-year old Tanker and chartering it out for 3-years would return back a significant part of the investment, namely, 35-40% in all sectors from MR to VLCCs. The Price to 1-year Earnings(annualized 3-year T/C Revenues minus OPEX) ratios for all tanker sectors are in the region of 7.45 and 8.63, well below the several last years’ averages, which renders investments with fixed charters attractive. The anticipated correction in product tankers due to the significant deliveries did not materialize with the demand absorbing the supply. At the same time, the crude sector enjoys the strongest freight market since 2008-09. 15-year old VLCCs, which had reached valuations below $20m in 2012/13 are today valued double that price at shy/rgn $40m. However, the crude tanker order book is increasing and the challenging conditions for shipyards may tempt them to lower/control their prices further to get more new building orders. So, the implied strategy for tankers is buy if you can charter-out long-term at the current firm rates.
In the dry sector, Messrs. Fredriksen, Embiricos, Chandris, Angelicoussis, Martinos extended family, Prokopiou, Hadjiyiannis (Cyprus) are just a few amongst distinguished counter-cyclical peers who have made decisive moves during this 1st half. 15-yo Capes were sold in the $9m’s, about one third of the price paid 15 months earlier.
Interestingly, in the last couple of weeks, prices for modern Kamsarmaxes have increased almost 10% for the first time since March 2014 while competition and the number of inspecting parties is rising. Meantime, the BDI has more than doubled since February’s historical lows. The record scrapping of the 1st half and the limited new building orders during the last year point to an eventual recovery. The short term momentum for asset values is rosy, while the longer (3-year) t/c rates remain extremely depressed and represent a promising alternative vehicle of investment although the owners willing to charter-out on a long basis are scarce.
Finally, we have calculated the ratios of the Price of a 5-year old vessel over its 1-year earnings. We used 3-year T/C rates (on an annualized basis) to remove excess ‘noise’ and since both asset values and longer-T/C rates incorporate certain (ir-)rational expectations. No strong pattern was revealed. Still the strongest incentive to invest is ‘buy as low as it gets’ even if the underlying freight market is depressed or ‘buy and fix long’ when P/E’s are low.
By Panos Tsilingiris
SnP/Newbuildings Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Saturday, 14 February 15
SHALE GAS AND TIGHT OIL ARE COMMERCIALLY PRODUCED IN JUST FOUR COUNTRIES - EIA
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
The United States, Canada, China, and Argentina are currently the only four countries in the world that are producing com ...
Friday, 13 February 15
U.S. WEEKLY COAL PRODUCTION SHOWS 10% DECLINE
COALspot.com – United States the world's one of the largest coal producers, produced approximately 18.1 million short tons (mmst) of coal ...
Friday, 13 February 15
SMALL AND MEDIUM-SIZED SHIP OWNERS SQUEEZED OUT OF THE MARKET ON CRASHING DRY BULK MARKET AND EUROZONE CRISIS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
Financing issues have started to tighten the noose in the throats of small and medium-size ship owners, who were already facing problems over the p ...
Thursday, 12 February 15
CAPESIZE: THE BEST DESCRIPTION FOR THE MARKET IS, FLAT - FEARNRESEARCH
Handy
The handy and supra market is also being affected by the marginal volume of activity in the commodity sales. We see a small upturn in the T ...
Thursday, 12 February 15
DRY BULK OWNERS SCRAP MORE VESSELS, AS MARKET REACHES HISTORICAL LOWS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
The dry bulk market has reached historical lows this week, with the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) now trading at levels below operating expense levels for ...
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- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Planning Commission, India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
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