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Wednesday, 22 July 15
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - PANOS TSILINGIRIS | INTERMODAL
 In both bulk shipping sectors, there are certain, yet different, reasons and strategies to invest. In the wet, buy once you can charter-out long, while in the dry go long on chartering-in or buy and wait.
In the wet sector, buying a 5-year old Tanker and chartering it out for 3-years would return back a significant part of the investment, namely, 35-40% in all sectors from MR to VLCCs. The Price to 1-year Earnings(annualized 3-year T/C Revenues minus OPEX) ratios for all tanker sectors are in the region of 7.45 and 8.63, well below the several last years’ averages, which renders investments with fixed charters attractive. The anticipated correction in product tankers due to the significant deliveries did not materialize with the demand absorbing the supply. At the same time, the crude sector enjoys the strongest freight market since 2008-09. 15-year old VLCCs, which had reached valuations below $20m in 2012/13 are today valued double that price at shy/rgn $40m. However, the crude tanker order book is increasing and the challenging conditions for shipyards may tempt them to lower/control their prices further to get more new building orders. So, the implied strategy for tankers is buy if you can charter-out long-term at the current firm rates.
In the dry sector, Messrs. Fredriksen, Embiricos, Chandris, Angelicoussis, Martinos extended family, Prokopiou, Hadjiyiannis (Cyprus) are just a few amongst distinguished counter-cyclical peers who have made decisive moves during this 1st half. 15-yo Capes were sold in the $9m’s, about one third of the price paid 15 months earlier.
Interestingly, in the last couple of weeks, prices for modern Kamsarmaxes have increased almost 10% for the first time since March 2014 while competition and the number of inspecting parties is rising. Meantime, the BDI has more than doubled since February’s historical lows. The record scrapping of the 1st half and the limited new building orders during the last year point to an eventual recovery. The short term momentum for asset values is rosy, while the longer (3-year) t/c rates remain extremely depressed and represent a promising alternative vehicle of investment although the owners willing to charter-out on a long basis are scarce.
Finally, we have calculated the ratios of the Price of a 5-year old vessel over its 1-year earnings. We used 3-year T/C rates (on an annualized basis) to remove excess ‘noise’ and since both asset values and longer-T/C rates incorporate certain (ir-)rational expectations. No strong pattern was revealed. Still the strongest incentive to invest is ‘buy as low as it gets’ even if the underlying freight market is depressed or ‘buy and fix long’ when P/E’s are low.
By Panos Tsilingiris
SnP/Newbuildings Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 17 February 15
Q2' FOB RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAP CLOSED AT $63.45; $ 1.85 HIGHER COMPARED TO Q4 CLOSING
COALspot.com: API 4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap for delivery Q2' 2015 surge month over month, week on week and day on day.
The Q2 swap has ...
Monday, 16 February 15
COAL MINING SLUMP A BLESSING IN DISGUISE - THE JAKARTA POST
The growth of the coal-mining industry, which has diminished in the last two years, is expected to slump even further this year following weakening ...
Monday, 16 February 15
FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAPS SURGE WEEK ON WEEK
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q2’ 2015 delivery rose US$ 1.31 per MT (+2.59%) week over week and US$ 4.35 (+9.13%) month on ...
Monday, 16 February 15
Q2' 15 - CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP ROSE 5.22% M-O-M
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for Q2’ 2015 delivery rose US$ 2.88 (+5.22%) per MT month over month and US$ 1.08 (+1.90% ...
Sunday, 15 February 15
BALTIC DRY INDEX CONTINUALLY DIPPED IN RED
COALspot.com: The Baltic Dry Index continues its decline and fell 5.18 pct to 530 points week on week due to falling commodity prices and declining ...
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- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- The University of Queensland
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- White Energy Company Limited
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Planning Commission, India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
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