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Wednesday, 22 July 15
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - PANOS TSILINGIRIS | INTERMODAL
 In both bulk shipping sectors, there are certain, yet different, reasons and strategies to invest. In the wet, buy once you can charter-out long, while in the dry go long on chartering-in or buy and wait.
In the wet sector, buying a 5-year old Tanker and chartering it out for 3-years would return back a significant part of the investment, namely, 35-40% in all sectors from MR to VLCCs. The Price to 1-year Earnings(annualized 3-year T/C Revenues minus OPEX) ratios for all tanker sectors are in the region of 7.45 and 8.63, well below the several last years’ averages, which renders investments with fixed charters attractive. The anticipated correction in product tankers due to the significant deliveries did not materialize with the demand absorbing the supply. At the same time, the crude sector enjoys the strongest freight market since 2008-09. 15-year old VLCCs, which had reached valuations below $20m in 2012/13 are today valued double that price at shy/rgn $40m. However, the crude tanker order book is increasing and the challenging conditions for shipyards may tempt them to lower/control their prices further to get more new building orders. So, the implied strategy for tankers is buy if you can charter-out long-term at the current firm rates.
In the dry sector, Messrs. Fredriksen, Embiricos, Chandris, Angelicoussis, Martinos extended family, Prokopiou, Hadjiyiannis (Cyprus) are just a few amongst distinguished counter-cyclical peers who have made decisive moves during this 1st half. 15-yo Capes were sold in the $9m’s, about one third of the price paid 15 months earlier.
Interestingly, in the last couple of weeks, prices for modern Kamsarmaxes have increased almost 10% for the first time since March 2014 while competition and the number of inspecting parties is rising. Meantime, the BDI has more than doubled since February’s historical lows. The record scrapping of the 1st half and the limited new building orders during the last year point to an eventual recovery. The short term momentum for asset values is rosy, while the longer (3-year) t/c rates remain extremely depressed and represent a promising alternative vehicle of investment although the owners willing to charter-out on a long basis are scarce.
Finally, we have calculated the ratios of the Price of a 5-year old vessel over its 1-year earnings. We used 3-year T/C rates (on an annualized basis) to remove excess ‘noise’ and since both asset values and longer-T/C rates incorporate certain (ir-)rational expectations. No strong pattern was revealed. Still the strongest incentive to invest is ‘buy as low as it gets’ even if the underlying freight market is depressed or ‘buy and fix long’ when P/E’s are low.
By Panos Tsilingiris
SnP/Newbuildings Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Sunday, 08 February 15
BDI FELL CONTINUOUSLY HIT A THREE DECADES LOW
COALspot.com: This week Baltic Exchange Dry Freight Index (BDI) fell continuously hit a three decades low.
The BDI continuously fell and was d ...
Friday, 06 February 15
WEEKLY U.S. COAL PRODUCTION UP AN ESTIMATED 1.1% FROM LAST WEEK - EIA
COALspot.com – United States the world's one of the largest coal producers, produced approximately 20.1 million short tons (mmst) of coal ...
Friday, 06 February 15
SHIP DAMAGED BY FIRE CAUSED BY PIRATES FOUND TO BE CONSTRUCTIVE TOTAL LOSS - TAYLOR WESSING
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
The High Court was asked to determine a number of preliminary issues, including whether a vessel was a constructive total ...
Thursday, 05 February 15
BDI HAS NOW FALLEN A LEVEL CLOSE TO THE INDEX'S HISTORIC LOW - INTERMODAL
They say a picture is worth a thousand words and in this instance just one look at the tables above is enough to understand the great pressure the ...
Thursday, 05 February 15
ULTRAMAX LEVELS FROM INDIA TO CHINA IN THE MID US$ 5000'S - FEARNLEYS AS
Handy
Despite the overall weak sentiment, there is a scent of optimism in the Atlantic market for ppt dates. Continent is still struggling with o ...
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- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- The University of Queensland
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Minerals Council of Australia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
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