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Wednesday, 22 July 15
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - PANOS TSILINGIRIS | INTERMODAL
 In both bulk shipping sectors, there are certain, yet different, reasons and strategies to invest. In the wet, buy once you can charter-out long, while in the dry go long on chartering-in or buy and wait.
In the wet sector, buying a 5-year old Tanker and chartering it out for 3-years would return back a significant part of the investment, namely, 35-40% in all sectors from MR to VLCCs. The Price to 1-year Earnings(annualized 3-year T/C Revenues minus OPEX) ratios for all tanker sectors are in the region of 7.45 and 8.63, well below the several last years’ averages, which renders investments with fixed charters attractive. The anticipated correction in product tankers due to the significant deliveries did not materialize with the demand absorbing the supply. At the same time, the crude sector enjoys the strongest freight market since 2008-09. 15-year old VLCCs, which had reached valuations below $20m in 2012/13 are today valued double that price at shy/rgn $40m. However, the crude tanker order book is increasing and the challenging conditions for shipyards may tempt them to lower/control their prices further to get more new building orders. So, the implied strategy for tankers is buy if you can charter-out long-term at the current firm rates.
In the dry sector, Messrs. Fredriksen, Embiricos, Chandris, Angelicoussis, Martinos extended family, Prokopiou, Hadjiyiannis (Cyprus) are just a few amongst distinguished counter-cyclical peers who have made decisive moves during this 1st half. 15-yo Capes were sold in the $9m’s, about one third of the price paid 15 months earlier.
Interestingly, in the last couple of weeks, prices for modern Kamsarmaxes have increased almost 10% for the first time since March 2014 while competition and the number of inspecting parties is rising. Meantime, the BDI has more than doubled since February’s historical lows. The record scrapping of the 1st half and the limited new building orders during the last year point to an eventual recovery. The short term momentum for asset values is rosy, while the longer (3-year) t/c rates remain extremely depressed and represent a promising alternative vehicle of investment although the owners willing to charter-out on a long basis are scarce.
Finally, we have calculated the ratios of the Price of a 5-year old vessel over its 1-year earnings. We used 3-year T/C rates (on an annualized basis) to remove excess ‘noise’ and since both asset values and longer-T/C rates incorporate certain (ir-)rational expectations. No strong pattern was revealed. Still the strongest incentive to invest is ‘buy as low as it gets’ even if the underlying freight market is depressed or ‘buy and fix long’ when P/E’s are low.
By Panos Tsilingiris
SnP/Newbuildings Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 19 February 15
PANAMAX: NOPAC AND AUSSIE ROUNDS ARE DONE IN LOW/MID $ 4000; TRIPS VIA INDONESIA TO INDIA CLOSER TO THE $5000 MARK - FEARNLEYS
Handy
The handy and supra market has not seen any firming rates in front of the Chinese New Year and still suffering on low activity in both hemi ...
Wednesday, 18 February 15
DRY BULK SHIPPING TO RECOVER IN LATE 2015 - DREWRY MARITIME RESEARCH
Strong trade growth, moderating fleet development and deployment of new fuel efficient vessels are expected to lead to a recovery in dry bulk shipp ...
Tuesday, 17 February 15
WHO PAYS THE SUEZ CANAL FEES? - INCE & CO
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
This was an appeal from an arbitration award on a point of construction in relation to the wording of an addendum to a ch ...
Tuesday, 17 February 15
BUOYANT WAVES IN RECENT YEARS: GLOBAL SHIP INVESTMENT SINCE THE CRASH - HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
Anxiety about fleet expansion is a recurring feature of world shipping markets. Within the global maritime community, worries about the vast amount ...
Tuesday, 17 February 15
FOB SUB-BIT INDONESIA COAL SWAP UP 8% MONTH OVER MONTH
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swaps for delivery Q2' 2015 rose week over week and month on month.
The Q2 swap up US$ 3.58 (+8.00%) month o ...
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- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Planning Commission, India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- White Energy Company Limited
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- The University of Queensland
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
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