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Wednesday, 22 July 15
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - PANOS TSILINGIRIS | INTERMODAL
 In both bulk shipping sectors, there are certain, yet different, reasons and strategies to invest. In the wet, buy once you can charter-out long, while in the dry go long on chartering-in or buy and wait.
In the wet sector, buying a 5-year old Tanker and chartering it out for 3-years would return back a significant part of the investment, namely, 35-40% in all sectors from MR to VLCCs. The Price to 1-year Earnings(annualized 3-year T/C Revenues minus OPEX) ratios for all tanker sectors are in the region of 7.45 and 8.63, well below the several last years’ averages, which renders investments with fixed charters attractive. The anticipated correction in product tankers due to the significant deliveries did not materialize with the demand absorbing the supply. At the same time, the crude sector enjoys the strongest freight market since 2008-09. 15-year old VLCCs, which had reached valuations below $20m in 2012/13 are today valued double that price at shy/rgn $40m. However, the crude tanker order book is increasing and the challenging conditions for shipyards may tempt them to lower/control their prices further to get more new building orders. So, the implied strategy for tankers is buy if you can charter-out long-term at the current firm rates.
In the dry sector, Messrs. Fredriksen, Embiricos, Chandris, Angelicoussis, Martinos extended family, Prokopiou, Hadjiyiannis (Cyprus) are just a few amongst distinguished counter-cyclical peers who have made decisive moves during this 1st half. 15-yo Capes were sold in the $9m’s, about one third of the price paid 15 months earlier.
Interestingly, in the last couple of weeks, prices for modern Kamsarmaxes have increased almost 10% for the first time since March 2014 while competition and the number of inspecting parties is rising. Meantime, the BDI has more than doubled since February’s historical lows. The record scrapping of the 1st half and the limited new building orders during the last year point to an eventual recovery. The short term momentum for asset values is rosy, while the longer (3-year) t/c rates remain extremely depressed and represent a promising alternative vehicle of investment although the owners willing to charter-out on a long basis are scarce.
Finally, we have calculated the ratios of the Price of a 5-year old vessel over its 1-year earnings. We used 3-year T/C rates (on an annualized basis) to remove excess ‘noise’ and since both asset values and longer-T/C rates incorporate certain (ir-)rational expectations. No strong pattern was revealed. Still the strongest incentive to invest is ‘buy as low as it gets’ even if the underlying freight market is depressed or ‘buy and fix long’ when P/E’s are low.
By Panos Tsilingiris
SnP/Newbuildings Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Monday, 23 February 15
Q2' CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP FOR Q2 ROSE 3.39% M-O-M
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for Q2’ 2015 delivery rose US$ 1.90 (+3.39%) per MT month over month and declined US$ 0.08 ...
Monday, 23 February 15
Q2' API 5 FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAP CLOSED $1 HIGHER THAN Q3
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q2’ 2015 delivery rose US$ 3.12 per MT (+6.44%) month over month and fall US$ 0.43 (-0.83%) w ...
Sunday, 22 February 15
THE BALTIC DRY INDEX LOST ALMOST 3.2% OR 17 POINTS WEEK ON WEEK
COALspot.com: The Baltic Dry Index, one of the economic indicators that monitors the health of the world's economy by tracking the price of shi ...
Friday, 20 February 15
GOVT SET TO INCREASE COAL OUTPUT TARGET THIS YEAR - JAKARTA POST
The Energy and Mineral Resources Ministry is planning to increase its coal output target this year as the government seeks to offset the ongoing de ...
Friday, 20 February 15
U.S. PRODUCED AROUND 19.2 MILLION SHORT TONS OF COAL WEEK ON WEEK
COALspot.com – United States the world's one of the largest coal producers, produced approximately 19.2 million short tons (mmst) of coal ...
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- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Australian Coal Association
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- The University of Queensland
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
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