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Wednesday, 22 July 15
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - PANOS TSILINGIRIS | INTERMODAL
 In both bulk shipping sectors, there are certain, yet different, reasons and strategies to invest. In the wet, buy once you can charter-out long, while in the dry go long on chartering-in or buy and wait.
In the wet sector, buying a 5-year old Tanker and chartering it out for 3-years would return back a significant part of the investment, namely, 35-40% in all sectors from MR to VLCCs. The Price to 1-year Earnings(annualized 3-year T/C Revenues minus OPEX) ratios for all tanker sectors are in the region of 7.45 and 8.63, well below the several last years’ averages, which renders investments with fixed charters attractive. The anticipated correction in product tankers due to the significant deliveries did not materialize with the demand absorbing the supply. At the same time, the crude sector enjoys the strongest freight market since 2008-09. 15-year old VLCCs, which had reached valuations below $20m in 2012/13 are today valued double that price at shy/rgn $40m. However, the crude tanker order book is increasing and the challenging conditions for shipyards may tempt them to lower/control their prices further to get more new building orders. So, the implied strategy for tankers is buy if you can charter-out long-term at the current firm rates.
In the dry sector, Messrs. Fredriksen, Embiricos, Chandris, Angelicoussis, Martinos extended family, Prokopiou, Hadjiyiannis (Cyprus) are just a few amongst distinguished counter-cyclical peers who have made decisive moves during this 1st half. 15-yo Capes were sold in the $9m’s, about one third of the price paid 15 months earlier.
Interestingly, in the last couple of weeks, prices for modern Kamsarmaxes have increased almost 10% for the first time since March 2014 while competition and the number of inspecting parties is rising. Meantime, the BDI has more than doubled since February’s historical lows. The record scrapping of the 1st half and the limited new building orders during the last year point to an eventual recovery. The short term momentum for asset values is rosy, while the longer (3-year) t/c rates remain extremely depressed and represent a promising alternative vehicle of investment although the owners willing to charter-out on a long basis are scarce.
Finally, we have calculated the ratios of the Price of a 5-year old vessel over its 1-year earnings. We used 3-year T/C rates (on an annualized basis) to remove excess ‘noise’ and since both asset values and longer-T/C rates incorporate certain (ir-)rational expectations. No strong pattern was revealed. Still the strongest incentive to invest is ‘buy as low as it gets’ even if the underlying freight market is depressed or ‘buy and fix long’ when P/E’s are low.
By Panos Tsilingiris
SnP/Newbuildings Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 25 February 15
PORT OF NEWCASTLE SHIPPED 13.16MT OF COAL IN JANUARY; DECLINED 16.70% FROM A MONTH AGO
COALspot.com: The Port of Newcastle, Australia’s major trading ports and the world’s largest coal export port, has shipped $1.15 billio ...
Wednesday, 25 February 15
BDI SLIPPING ONCE MORE TO FRESH HISTORICAL LOWS
COALspot.com: With the BDI slipping once more to fresh historical lows and the Chinese holidays underway, signs for a positive reversal in the Dry ...
Tuesday, 24 February 15
FOB INDONESIA COAL SWAP SET TO RALLY
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swaps for delivery Q2' 2015 rose week over week and month on month.
The Q2 swap increased US$ 3.30 (+7.30%) ...
Tuesday, 24 February 15
Q3' FOB RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAP CLOSED $59.80 W/E 20 FEB
COALspot.com: API 4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap for delivery Q2' 2015 surge month over month and decline week on week.
The Q2 swap has soar ...
Tuesday, 24 February 15
IHS ENERGY COAL CONFERENCE OF THE AMERICAS
Attend the IHS Energy Coal Conference of the Americas 17-19 March in Cartagena, Colombia and learn about timely concerns in today's coal indust ...
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- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- White Energy Company Limited
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Planning Commission, India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Australian Coal Association
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
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