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Wednesday, 22 July 15
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - PANOS TSILINGIRIS | INTERMODAL
 In both bulk shipping sectors, there are certain, yet different, reasons and strategies to invest. In the wet, buy once you can charter-out long, while in the dry go long on chartering-in or buy and wait.
In the wet sector, buying a 5-year old Tanker and chartering it out for 3-years would return back a significant part of the investment, namely, 35-40% in all sectors from MR to VLCCs. The Price to 1-year Earnings(annualized 3-year T/C Revenues minus OPEX) ratios for all tanker sectors are in the region of 7.45 and 8.63, well below the several last years’ averages, which renders investments with fixed charters attractive. The anticipated correction in product tankers due to the significant deliveries did not materialize with the demand absorbing the supply. At the same time, the crude sector enjoys the strongest freight market since 2008-09. 15-year old VLCCs, which had reached valuations below $20m in 2012/13 are today valued double that price at shy/rgn $40m. However, the crude tanker order book is increasing and the challenging conditions for shipyards may tempt them to lower/control their prices further to get more new building orders. So, the implied strategy for tankers is buy if you can charter-out long-term at the current firm rates.
In the dry sector, Messrs. Fredriksen, Embiricos, Chandris, Angelicoussis, Martinos extended family, Prokopiou, Hadjiyiannis (Cyprus) are just a few amongst distinguished counter-cyclical peers who have made decisive moves during this 1st half. 15-yo Capes were sold in the $9m’s, about one third of the price paid 15 months earlier.
Interestingly, in the last couple of weeks, prices for modern Kamsarmaxes have increased almost 10% for the first time since March 2014 while competition and the number of inspecting parties is rising. Meantime, the BDI has more than doubled since February’s historical lows. The record scrapping of the 1st half and the limited new building orders during the last year point to an eventual recovery. The short term momentum for asset values is rosy, while the longer (3-year) t/c rates remain extremely depressed and represent a promising alternative vehicle of investment although the owners willing to charter-out on a long basis are scarce.
Finally, we have calculated the ratios of the Price of a 5-year old vessel over its 1-year earnings. We used 3-year T/C rates (on an annualized basis) to remove excess ‘noise’ and since both asset values and longer-T/C rates incorporate certain (ir-)rational expectations. No strong pattern was revealed. Still the strongest incentive to invest is ‘buy as low as it gets’ even if the underlying freight market is depressed or ‘buy and fix long’ when P/E’s are low.
By Panos Tsilingiris
SnP/Newbuildings Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 17 March 15
GAS TO CHALLENGE COAL IN THE ASIAN POWER GENERATION MIX - WOOD MACKENZIE
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Wood Mackenzie says that coal is facing increasing competition from gas in the power sector. Coal has dominated as the fu ...
Tuesday, 17 March 15
RIO TINTO PAID US$ 7.1 BILLION IN TAXES IN 2014
COALspot.com: Rio Tinto has published its latest Taxes paid report, detailing the US$7.1 billion in taxes paid by the company around the world in 2 ...
Tuesday, 17 March 15
NEARLY 17% OF US COAL PRODUCTION UNECONOMIC AT CURRENT MARKET PRICING - WOOD MACKENZIE
COALspot.com: Close to 17% of forecast 2015 US coal production is at risk of idling or closure, totalling 162 million short tons (Mst), as these mi ...
Tuesday, 17 March 15
Q3' SA COAL SWAP CLOSED $57.30 PMT W/E 13 MARCH
COALspot.com: API 4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap for delivery Q2' 2015 declined month over month and gained week on week.
The Q2 swap has fe ...
Monday, 16 March 15
MAKING THE WORLD GO ROUND - SEABORNE TRADE! - CLARKSONS
Money, or even love if you prefer, are claimed to make the world go round. For the shipping world, however, it’s trade that sets things spinn ...
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- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- The University of Queensland
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
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