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Wednesday, 22 July 15
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - PANOS TSILINGIRIS | INTERMODAL
 In both bulk shipping sectors, there are certain, yet different, reasons and strategies to invest. In the wet, buy once you can charter-out long, while in the dry go long on chartering-in or buy and wait.
In the wet sector, buying a 5-year old Tanker and chartering it out for 3-years would return back a significant part of the investment, namely, 35-40% in all sectors from MR to VLCCs. The Price to 1-year Earnings(annualized 3-year T/C Revenues minus OPEX) ratios for all tanker sectors are in the region of 7.45 and 8.63, well below the several last years’ averages, which renders investments with fixed charters attractive. The anticipated correction in product tankers due to the significant deliveries did not materialize with the demand absorbing the supply. At the same time, the crude sector enjoys the strongest freight market since 2008-09. 15-year old VLCCs, which had reached valuations below $20m in 2012/13 are today valued double that price at shy/rgn $40m. However, the crude tanker order book is increasing and the challenging conditions for shipyards may tempt them to lower/control their prices further to get more new building orders. So, the implied strategy for tankers is buy if you can charter-out long-term at the current firm rates.
In the dry sector, Messrs. Fredriksen, Embiricos, Chandris, Angelicoussis, Martinos extended family, Prokopiou, Hadjiyiannis (Cyprus) are just a few amongst distinguished counter-cyclical peers who have made decisive moves during this 1st half. 15-yo Capes were sold in the $9m’s, about one third of the price paid 15 months earlier.
Interestingly, in the last couple of weeks, prices for modern Kamsarmaxes have increased almost 10% for the first time since March 2014 while competition and the number of inspecting parties is rising. Meantime, the BDI has more than doubled since February’s historical lows. The record scrapping of the 1st half and the limited new building orders during the last year point to an eventual recovery. The short term momentum for asset values is rosy, while the longer (3-year) t/c rates remain extremely depressed and represent a promising alternative vehicle of investment although the owners willing to charter-out on a long basis are scarce.
Finally, we have calculated the ratios of the Price of a 5-year old vessel over its 1-year earnings. We used 3-year T/C rates (on an annualized basis) to remove excess ‘noise’ and since both asset values and longer-T/C rates incorporate certain (ir-)rational expectations. No strong pattern was revealed. Still the strongest incentive to invest is ‘buy as low as it gets’ even if the underlying freight market is depressed or ‘buy and fix long’ when P/E’s are low.
By Panos Tsilingiris
SnP/Newbuildings Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 13 March 15
ADARO RECORDED A 7% INCREASE IN EBITDA OF $877 MILLION IN 2014
“Coal market continues to be difficult and challenging” – Adaro Energy
The world’s Top 5 thermal coal exporter, ...
Thursday, 12 March 15
CAPESIZE : ACTIVITY IS LOW; PANAMAX: BIT MORE ACTIVITY; HANDY: A FIRMING WEEK
Handy
It has been a firming week in both hemispheres this week and especially in the Pacific, says Fearnleys AS in its week's week report.
...
Thursday, 12 March 15
COAL MINERS REMAIN UNDER PRESSURE AS GLUT CONTINUES - THE JAKARTA POST
Indonesia’s major coal miners reported a significant drop in their earnings last year as the sharp drop in the global demand, mainly from Chi ...
Thursday, 12 March 15
FOB INDONESIA COAL SWAP DROP TO $47.33 A TON IN THE WEEK ENDED MAR.6
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swaps for delivery Q2' 2015 drop month on month and week over week.
The Q2 swap fell US$ 0.37 (0.78%) month ...
Wednesday, 11 March 15
RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAPS DROP $ 3.65 - 4.0/T W-O-W
COALspot.com: API 4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap for delivery Q2' 2015 declined month over month and week on week.
The Q2 swap has fell US$ ...
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- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Australian Coal Association
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- White Energy Company Limited
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
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