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Wednesday, 22 July 15
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - PANOS TSILINGIRIS | INTERMODAL
 In both bulk shipping sectors, there are certain, yet different, reasons and strategies to invest. In the wet, buy once you can charter-out long, while in the dry go long on chartering-in or buy and wait.
In the wet sector, buying a 5-year old Tanker and chartering it out for 3-years would return back a significant part of the investment, namely, 35-40% in all sectors from MR to VLCCs. The Price to 1-year Earnings(annualized 3-year T/C Revenues minus OPEX) ratios for all tanker sectors are in the region of 7.45 and 8.63, well below the several last years’ averages, which renders investments with fixed charters attractive. The anticipated correction in product tankers due to the significant deliveries did not materialize with the demand absorbing the supply. At the same time, the crude sector enjoys the strongest freight market since 2008-09. 15-year old VLCCs, which had reached valuations below $20m in 2012/13 are today valued double that price at shy/rgn $40m. However, the crude tanker order book is increasing and the challenging conditions for shipyards may tempt them to lower/control their prices further to get more new building orders. So, the implied strategy for tankers is buy if you can charter-out long-term at the current firm rates.
In the dry sector, Messrs. Fredriksen, Embiricos, Chandris, Angelicoussis, Martinos extended family, Prokopiou, Hadjiyiannis (Cyprus) are just a few amongst distinguished counter-cyclical peers who have made decisive moves during this 1st half. 15-yo Capes were sold in the $9m’s, about one third of the price paid 15 months earlier.
Interestingly, in the last couple of weeks, prices for modern Kamsarmaxes have increased almost 10% for the first time since March 2014 while competition and the number of inspecting parties is rising. Meantime, the BDI has more than doubled since February’s historical lows. The record scrapping of the 1st half and the limited new building orders during the last year point to an eventual recovery. The short term momentum for asset values is rosy, while the longer (3-year) t/c rates remain extremely depressed and represent a promising alternative vehicle of investment although the owners willing to charter-out on a long basis are scarce.
Finally, we have calculated the ratios of the Price of a 5-year old vessel over its 1-year earnings. We used 3-year T/C rates (on an annualized basis) to remove excess ‘noise’ and since both asset values and longer-T/C rates incorporate certain (ir-)rational expectations. No strong pattern was revealed. Still the strongest incentive to invest is ‘buy as low as it gets’ even if the underlying freight market is depressed or ‘buy and fix long’ when P/E’s are low.
By Panos Tsilingiris
SnP/Newbuildings Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 23 March 15
SEABORNE WORLD COAL TRADE: GROWTH +5% - GERMAN COAL IMPORTER ASSOCIATION
Hard Coal Market 2014: Despite The Energy Turnaround, Hard Coal Imports To Germany Rise By More Than 6%, Although Hard Coal-Fired Power Generation ...
Sunday, 22 March 15
DRY BULK RATES CONTINUED TO RISE THIS WEEK
COALspot.com: The freight market was steady this week as all the segments increased after many weeks of weak trend.
The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) ...
Friday, 20 March 15
HARD COAL MARKET 2014: DESPITE THE ENERGY TURNAROUND, HARD COAL IMPORTS TO GERMANY RISE BY MORE THAN 6% (PART 1)
Hard Coal Market 2014: Despite The Energy Turnaround, Hard Coal Imports To Germany Rise By More Than 6%, Although Hard Coal-Fired Power Generation ...
Friday, 20 March 15
U.S. WEEKLY COAL PRODUCTION SHOWS 5.9% INCREASE WEEK OVER WEEK - EIA
COALspot.com – United States the world's one of the largest coal producers, produced approximately 18.5 million short tons (mmst) of coal ...
Thursday, 19 March 15
HANDY: INDO COAL CARGOS DESTINED FOR INDIA BEING FIXED IN REGION OF $ 7-8K - FEARNLEYS
Handy
The Handy and Supra market has had a week with mixed signals. Although we see more activity in both hemispheres the rates are only up about ...
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- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- The University of Queensland
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
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