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Wednesday, 22 July 15
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - PANOS TSILINGIRIS | INTERMODAL
 In both bulk shipping sectors, there are certain, yet different, reasons and strategies to invest. In the wet, buy once you can charter-out long, while in the dry go long on chartering-in or buy and wait.
In the wet sector, buying a 5-year old Tanker and chartering it out for 3-years would return back a significant part of the investment, namely, 35-40% in all sectors from MR to VLCCs. The Price to 1-year Earnings(annualized 3-year T/C Revenues minus OPEX) ratios for all tanker sectors are in the region of 7.45 and 8.63, well below the several last years’ averages, which renders investments with fixed charters attractive. The anticipated correction in product tankers due to the significant deliveries did not materialize with the demand absorbing the supply. At the same time, the crude sector enjoys the strongest freight market since 2008-09. 15-year old VLCCs, which had reached valuations below $20m in 2012/13 are today valued double that price at shy/rgn $40m. However, the crude tanker order book is increasing and the challenging conditions for shipyards may tempt them to lower/control their prices further to get more new building orders. So, the implied strategy for tankers is buy if you can charter-out long-term at the current firm rates.
In the dry sector, Messrs. Fredriksen, Embiricos, Chandris, Angelicoussis, Martinos extended family, Prokopiou, Hadjiyiannis (Cyprus) are just a few amongst distinguished counter-cyclical peers who have made decisive moves during this 1st half. 15-yo Capes were sold in the $9m’s, about one third of the price paid 15 months earlier.
Interestingly, in the last couple of weeks, prices for modern Kamsarmaxes have increased almost 10% for the first time since March 2014 while competition and the number of inspecting parties is rising. Meantime, the BDI has more than doubled since February’s historical lows. The record scrapping of the 1st half and the limited new building orders during the last year point to an eventual recovery. The short term momentum for asset values is rosy, while the longer (3-year) t/c rates remain extremely depressed and represent a promising alternative vehicle of investment although the owners willing to charter-out on a long basis are scarce.
Finally, we have calculated the ratios of the Price of a 5-year old vessel over its 1-year earnings. We used 3-year T/C rates (on an annualized basis) to remove excess ‘noise’ and since both asset values and longer-T/C rates incorporate certain (ir-)rational expectations. No strong pattern was revealed. Still the strongest incentive to invest is ‘buy as low as it gets’ even if the underlying freight market is depressed or ‘buy and fix long’ when P/E’s are low.
By Panos Tsilingiris
SnP/Newbuildings Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 16 March 15
API 5 FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAPS: DECLINED
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q2’ 2015 delivery declined US$ 2.48 per MT (-4.77%) month over month and US$ 0.93 (-1.84%) we ...
Monday, 16 March 15
CFR SOUTH CHINA THERMAL COAL SWAP DECLINED 3.74% M-O-M
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for Q2’ 2015 delivery declined US$ 2.17 (-3.74%) per MT month over month and US$ 0.67 (-1 ...
Sunday, 15 March 15
BDI DECLINED LESSER THAN 1% WEEK OVER WEEK; INDO-INDIA FIRM
COALspot.com: The most of indices, including bulk dry index were falling this week. The BDI has been down by just 0.53 points and closing at 562 po ...
Saturday, 14 March 15
CAPESIZE DRY BULKERS TO AVERAGE BETWEEN $3,000 AND $9,000/DAY IN THE COMING WEEKS SAYS BIMCO
BIMCO issued its latest short-term estimates for the dry bulk market. For March/May: BIMCO assesses that the Capesize time charter (T/C) average ra ...
Friday, 13 March 15
U.S. COAL PRODUCTION UP 2.3% WEEK OVER WEEK
COALspot.com – United States the world's one of the largest coal producers, produced approximately 17.5 million short tons (mmst) of coal ...
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- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Australian Coal Association
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- White Energy Company Limited
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
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