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Wednesday, 22 July 15
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - PANOS TSILINGIRIS | INTERMODAL
 In both bulk shipping sectors, there are certain, yet different, reasons and strategies to invest. In the wet, buy once you can charter-out long, while in the dry go long on chartering-in or buy and wait.
In the wet sector, buying a 5-year old Tanker and chartering it out for 3-years would return back a significant part of the investment, namely, 35-40% in all sectors from MR to VLCCs. The Price to 1-year Earnings(annualized 3-year T/C Revenues minus OPEX) ratios for all tanker sectors are in the region of 7.45 and 8.63, well below the several last years’ averages, which renders investments with fixed charters attractive. The anticipated correction in product tankers due to the significant deliveries did not materialize with the demand absorbing the supply. At the same time, the crude sector enjoys the strongest freight market since 2008-09. 15-year old VLCCs, which had reached valuations below $20m in 2012/13 are today valued double that price at shy/rgn $40m. However, the crude tanker order book is increasing and the challenging conditions for shipyards may tempt them to lower/control their prices further to get more new building orders. So, the implied strategy for tankers is buy if you can charter-out long-term at the current firm rates.
In the dry sector, Messrs. Fredriksen, Embiricos, Chandris, Angelicoussis, Martinos extended family, Prokopiou, Hadjiyiannis (Cyprus) are just a few amongst distinguished counter-cyclical peers who have made decisive moves during this 1st half. 15-yo Capes were sold in the $9m’s, about one third of the price paid 15 months earlier.
Interestingly, in the last couple of weeks, prices for modern Kamsarmaxes have increased almost 10% for the first time since March 2014 while competition and the number of inspecting parties is rising. Meantime, the BDI has more than doubled since February’s historical lows. The record scrapping of the 1st half and the limited new building orders during the last year point to an eventual recovery. The short term momentum for asset values is rosy, while the longer (3-year) t/c rates remain extremely depressed and represent a promising alternative vehicle of investment although the owners willing to charter-out on a long basis are scarce.
Finally, we have calculated the ratios of the Price of a 5-year old vessel over its 1-year earnings. We used 3-year T/C rates (on an annualized basis) to remove excess ‘noise’ and since both asset values and longer-T/C rates incorporate certain (ir-)rational expectations. No strong pattern was revealed. Still the strongest incentive to invest is ‘buy as low as it gets’ even if the underlying freight market is depressed or ‘buy and fix long’ when P/E’s are low.
By Panos Tsilingiris
SnP/Newbuildings Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 19 March 15
INDONESIAN COAL BENCHMARK SOAR 7.69% IN MARCH....!!!
COALspot.com - The Ministry of Energy & Mineral Resources of Indonesia revised up Indonesian coal benchmark prices to US$ 67.76 per MT in March ...
Wednesday, 18 March 15
AVERAGE RATE FOR CAPES MOVED TO BELOW $ 4K/DAY LAST WEEK - INTERMODAL
COALspot.com: The even heavier losses noted in the Capesize segment last week, denied the Dry Bulk market a third weekly positive, while the smalle ...
Wednesday, 18 March 15
PARKING THE CAPES - LINOS KOGEVINAS
It is no secret that recent times have been anything but kind towards shipping, and no sector has suffered more lately than the dry bulk one. While ...
Wednesday, 18 March 15
CHINA-OWNED SHIPS: A RAPID RISE TO BECOME ONE OF THE WORLD'S LARGEST FLEETS - RICHARD SCOTT
Ships operated by owners based in China have become increasingly prominent on the world’s sea routes. China-owned container ships, bulk carri ...
Wednesday, 18 March 15
Q2 INDONESIAN COAL SWAP DROP 1.45% M-O-M; GAIN 0.63% W-O-W
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swaps for delivery Q2' 2015 drop month on month and gained week over week.
The Q2 swap fell US$ 0.70 (1.45%) ...
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- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Parliament of New Zealand
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- PTC India Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- VISA Power Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Planning Commission, India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
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