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Wednesday, 22 July 15
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - PANOS TSILINGIRIS | INTERMODAL
 In both bulk shipping sectors, there are certain, yet different, reasons and strategies to invest. In the wet, buy once you can charter-out long, while in the dry go long on chartering-in or buy and wait.
In the wet sector, buying a 5-year old Tanker and chartering it out for 3-years would return back a significant part of the investment, namely, 35-40% in all sectors from MR to VLCCs. The Price to 1-year Earnings(annualized 3-year T/C Revenues minus OPEX) ratios for all tanker sectors are in the region of 7.45 and 8.63, well below the several last years’ averages, which renders investments with fixed charters attractive. The anticipated correction in product tankers due to the significant deliveries did not materialize with the demand absorbing the supply. At the same time, the crude sector enjoys the strongest freight market since 2008-09. 15-year old VLCCs, which had reached valuations below $20m in 2012/13 are today valued double that price at shy/rgn $40m. However, the crude tanker order book is increasing and the challenging conditions for shipyards may tempt them to lower/control their prices further to get more new building orders. So, the implied strategy for tankers is buy if you can charter-out long-term at the current firm rates.
In the dry sector, Messrs. Fredriksen, Embiricos, Chandris, Angelicoussis, Martinos extended family, Prokopiou, Hadjiyiannis (Cyprus) are just a few amongst distinguished counter-cyclical peers who have made decisive moves during this 1st half. 15-yo Capes were sold in the $9m’s, about one third of the price paid 15 months earlier.
Interestingly, in the last couple of weeks, prices for modern Kamsarmaxes have increased almost 10% for the first time since March 2014 while competition and the number of inspecting parties is rising. Meantime, the BDI has more than doubled since February’s historical lows. The record scrapping of the 1st half and the limited new building orders during the last year point to an eventual recovery. The short term momentum for asset values is rosy, while the longer (3-year) t/c rates remain extremely depressed and represent a promising alternative vehicle of investment although the owners willing to charter-out on a long basis are scarce.
Finally, we have calculated the ratios of the Price of a 5-year old vessel over its 1-year earnings. We used 3-year T/C rates (on an annualized basis) to remove excess ‘noise’ and since both asset values and longer-T/C rates incorporate certain (ir-)rational expectations. No strong pattern was revealed. Still the strongest incentive to invest is ‘buy as low as it gets’ even if the underlying freight market is depressed or ‘buy and fix long’ when P/E’s are low.
By Panos Tsilingiris
SnP/Newbuildings Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 24 March 15
RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAP FOR DELIVERY Q2 CLOSED $ 1.87 HIGHER COMPARED TO Q3 CLOSING PRICE
COALspot.com: API 4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap for delivery Q2' 2015 declined month over month and week on week.
The Q2 swap has dropped U ...
Tuesday, 24 March 15
ARGUS MEDITERRANEAN SOLID FUELS 2015 CONFERENCE | 2-3 JUNE, ISTANBUL
Press Release: Argus Media is proud to announce Argus Mediterranean Solid Fuels, which will be held in Istanbul,on 2-3February.
Argus produces ...
Monday, 23 March 15
IS OIL GETTING READY TO PLUNGE BELOW $40? - FORBES
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
In my last crude oil market update in late-February, I expressed my skepticism toward the oil price rebound. Since then, ...
Monday, 23 March 15
Q4' 2015 FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAPS DECLINED 6.79% M-O-M; 2.55% W-O-W
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q2’ 2015 delivery declined US$ 3.42 per MT (-6.33%) month over month and US$ 1.37 (-2.77%) we ...
Monday, 23 March 15
CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP: Q3 DELIVERY HAS FALLEN 7.93% MONTH-ON-MONTH
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for Q2’ 2015 delivery declined US$ 4.09 (-7.06%) per MT month over month and US$ 2.00 (-3 ...
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- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- The University of Queensland
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
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