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Wednesday, 22 July 15
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - PANOS TSILINGIRIS | INTERMODAL
 In both bulk shipping sectors, there are certain, yet different, reasons and strategies to invest. In the wet, buy once you can charter-out long, while in the dry go long on chartering-in or buy and wait.
In the wet sector, buying a 5-year old Tanker and chartering it out for 3-years would return back a significant part of the investment, namely, 35-40% in all sectors from MR to VLCCs. The Price to 1-year Earnings(annualized 3-year T/C Revenues minus OPEX) ratios for all tanker sectors are in the region of 7.45 and 8.63, well below the several last years’ averages, which renders investments with fixed charters attractive. The anticipated correction in product tankers due to the significant deliveries did not materialize with the demand absorbing the supply. At the same time, the crude sector enjoys the strongest freight market since 2008-09. 15-year old VLCCs, which had reached valuations below $20m in 2012/13 are today valued double that price at shy/rgn $40m. However, the crude tanker order book is increasing and the challenging conditions for shipyards may tempt them to lower/control their prices further to get more new building orders. So, the implied strategy for tankers is buy if you can charter-out long-term at the current firm rates.
In the dry sector, Messrs. Fredriksen, Embiricos, Chandris, Angelicoussis, Martinos extended family, Prokopiou, Hadjiyiannis (Cyprus) are just a few amongst distinguished counter-cyclical peers who have made decisive moves during this 1st half. 15-yo Capes were sold in the $9m’s, about one third of the price paid 15 months earlier.
Interestingly, in the last couple of weeks, prices for modern Kamsarmaxes have increased almost 10% for the first time since March 2014 while competition and the number of inspecting parties is rising. Meantime, the BDI has more than doubled since February’s historical lows. The record scrapping of the 1st half and the limited new building orders during the last year point to an eventual recovery. The short term momentum for asset values is rosy, while the longer (3-year) t/c rates remain extremely depressed and represent a promising alternative vehicle of investment although the owners willing to charter-out on a long basis are scarce.
Finally, we have calculated the ratios of the Price of a 5-year old vessel over its 1-year earnings. We used 3-year T/C rates (on an annualized basis) to remove excess ‘noise’ and since both asset values and longer-T/C rates incorporate certain (ir-)rational expectations. No strong pattern was revealed. Still the strongest incentive to invest is ‘buy as low as it gets’ even if the underlying freight market is depressed or ‘buy and fix long’ when P/E’s are low.
By Panos Tsilingiris
SnP/Newbuildings Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 25 March 15
MARKET INSIGHT: TANKER CHARTERING - KATERINA RESTIS
The 1st of January 2015, as broadly reported, denoted the beginning date of new and progressive emission regulations for vessels operating within t ...
Wednesday, 25 March 15
AUSTRALIA SET TO ONCE AGAIN BE THE WORLD'S LARGEST COAL EXPORTER - COAL, MINERALS COUNCIL OF AUSTRALIA
Greg Evans, Executive Director - Coal, Minerals Council of Australia
Media Release: The latest Resources and Energy Quarterly published by the ...
Wednesday, 25 March 15
AUSTRALIA UPSTREAM ENERGY FIRMS FACE RISING OIL PRICE EXPOSURE - FITCH
Fitch Ratings says the Australian oil and gas companies involved in exploration and production face higher exposure to oil price-linked revenues, w ...
Wednesday, 25 March 15
2014 : UK COAL IMPORTS DECLINED 17%; GERMANY COAL IMPORTS UP 6%
Hard Coal Market 2014: Despite The Energy Turnaround, Hard Coal Imports To Germany Rise By More Than 6%, Although Hard Coal-Fired Power Generation ...
Tuesday, 24 March 15
A WEAK WEEK FOR FOB INDONESIA COAL SWAP
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swaps for delivery Q2' 2015 drop month on month and week over week.
The Q2 swap fell US$ 2.48 (5.12%) month ...
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- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Australian Coal Association
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- The University of Queensland
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
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