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Wednesday, 22 July 15
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - PANOS TSILINGIRIS | INTERMODAL
 In both bulk shipping sectors, there are certain, yet different, reasons and strategies to invest. In the wet, buy once you can charter-out long, while in the dry go long on chartering-in or buy and wait.
In the wet sector, buying a 5-year old Tanker and chartering it out for 3-years would return back a significant part of the investment, namely, 35-40% in all sectors from MR to VLCCs. The Price to 1-year Earnings(annualized 3-year T/C Revenues minus OPEX) ratios for all tanker sectors are in the region of 7.45 and 8.63, well below the several last years’ averages, which renders investments with fixed charters attractive. The anticipated correction in product tankers due to the significant deliveries did not materialize with the demand absorbing the supply. At the same time, the crude sector enjoys the strongest freight market since 2008-09. 15-year old VLCCs, which had reached valuations below $20m in 2012/13 are today valued double that price at shy/rgn $40m. However, the crude tanker order book is increasing and the challenging conditions for shipyards may tempt them to lower/control their prices further to get more new building orders. So, the implied strategy for tankers is buy if you can charter-out long-term at the current firm rates.
In the dry sector, Messrs. Fredriksen, Embiricos, Chandris, Angelicoussis, Martinos extended family, Prokopiou, Hadjiyiannis (Cyprus) are just a few amongst distinguished counter-cyclical peers who have made decisive moves during this 1st half. 15-yo Capes were sold in the $9m’s, about one third of the price paid 15 months earlier.
Interestingly, in the last couple of weeks, prices for modern Kamsarmaxes have increased almost 10% for the first time since March 2014 while competition and the number of inspecting parties is rising. Meantime, the BDI has more than doubled since February’s historical lows. The record scrapping of the 1st half and the limited new building orders during the last year point to an eventual recovery. The short term momentum for asset values is rosy, while the longer (3-year) t/c rates remain extremely depressed and represent a promising alternative vehicle of investment although the owners willing to charter-out on a long basis are scarce.
Finally, we have calculated the ratios of the Price of a 5-year old vessel over its 1-year earnings. We used 3-year T/C rates (on an annualized basis) to remove excess ‘noise’ and since both asset values and longer-T/C rates incorporate certain (ir-)rational expectations. No strong pattern was revealed. Still the strongest incentive to invest is ‘buy as low as it gets’ even if the underlying freight market is depressed or ‘buy and fix long’ when P/E’s are low.
By Panos Tsilingiris
SnP/Newbuildings Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Saturday, 04 April 15
BORYEONG POWER OF KOMIPO TO BUY TOTALED 695K MT OF HIGH AND LCV COAL
COALspot.com - Korea Midland Power Co. Ltd. (KOMIPO) is inviting bids from coal producers, marketing companies, or traders to supply of 500000 Metr ...
Friday, 03 April 15
U.S WEEKLY COAL PRODUCTION STAYS FLAT
COALspot.com – United States the second largest coal producer in the world has produced approximately totaled an estimated 18.3 million short ...
Friday, 03 April 15
TOBA BARA'S PANDU SJAHRIR ELECTED AS NEW CHAIRMAN OF THE INDONESIAN COAL MINING ASSOCIATION
COALspot.com: Pandu Sjahrir, the Vice President Director & CFO of the Jakarta-listed PT Toba Bara Sejahtra — a subsidiary of PT Toba Seja ...
Thursday, 02 April 15
GOVERNMENT MUST WORK WITH MINING, NOT AGAINST IT - PANDU SJAHRIR
The Coal Face: The coal price has hit its lowest point in recent memory
My father used to say to me that his children are his biggest inv ...
Thursday, 02 April 15
NEWBUILDING ORDERS FOR DRY BULK CARRIERS "DRY" UP
Newbuilding ordering activity remained subdued over the course of the past week, as ship owners are wary of adding further tonnage to an already pr ...
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- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Planning Commission, India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
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