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Wednesday, 22 July 15
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - PANOS TSILINGIRIS | INTERMODAL
 In both bulk shipping sectors, there are certain, yet different, reasons and strategies to invest. In the wet, buy once you can charter-out long, while in the dry go long on chartering-in or buy and wait.
In the wet sector, buying a 5-year old Tanker and chartering it out for 3-years would return back a significant part of the investment, namely, 35-40% in all sectors from MR to VLCCs. The Price to 1-year Earnings(annualized 3-year T/C Revenues minus OPEX) ratios for all tanker sectors are in the region of 7.45 and 8.63, well below the several last years’ averages, which renders investments with fixed charters attractive. The anticipated correction in product tankers due to the significant deliveries did not materialize with the demand absorbing the supply. At the same time, the crude sector enjoys the strongest freight market since 2008-09. 15-year old VLCCs, which had reached valuations below $20m in 2012/13 are today valued double that price at shy/rgn $40m. However, the crude tanker order book is increasing and the challenging conditions for shipyards may tempt them to lower/control their prices further to get more new building orders. So, the implied strategy for tankers is buy if you can charter-out long-term at the current firm rates.
In the dry sector, Messrs. Fredriksen, Embiricos, Chandris, Angelicoussis, Martinos extended family, Prokopiou, Hadjiyiannis (Cyprus) are just a few amongst distinguished counter-cyclical peers who have made decisive moves during this 1st half. 15-yo Capes were sold in the $9m’s, about one third of the price paid 15 months earlier.
Interestingly, in the last couple of weeks, prices for modern Kamsarmaxes have increased almost 10% for the first time since March 2014 while competition and the number of inspecting parties is rising. Meantime, the BDI has more than doubled since February’s historical lows. The record scrapping of the 1st half and the limited new building orders during the last year point to an eventual recovery. The short term momentum for asset values is rosy, while the longer (3-year) t/c rates remain extremely depressed and represent a promising alternative vehicle of investment although the owners willing to charter-out on a long basis are scarce.
Finally, we have calculated the ratios of the Price of a 5-year old vessel over its 1-year earnings. We used 3-year T/C rates (on an annualized basis) to remove excess ‘noise’ and since both asset values and longer-T/C rates incorporate certain (ir-)rational expectations. No strong pattern was revealed. Still the strongest incentive to invest is ‘buy as low as it gets’ even if the underlying freight market is depressed or ‘buy and fix long’ when P/E’s are low.
By Panos Tsilingiris
SnP/Newbuildings Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 07 April 15
Q3 FOB RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAP CLOSED AT $ 55.96 PMT; DOWN 8.40% M-M
COALspot.com: API4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap for delivery Q2' 2015 declined month over month and week on week.
The Q2 swap has declined U ...
Monday, 06 April 15
INDONESIA'S HBA FIXED AT US$ 64.48 PMT FOR APRIL DELIVERY; DOWN 4.84% M-M
COALspot.com - The Ministry of Energy & Mineral Resources of Indonesia revised down Indonesian coal benchmark prices to US$ 64.48 per MT in Apr ...
Monday, 06 April 15
FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAP DECLINED 12% MONTH OVER MONTH
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q2’ 2015 delivery declined US$ 6.23 per MT (-12%) month over month and US$ 0.86 (-1.85%) week ...
Monday, 06 April 15
CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP FALL CONTINUES
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for Q2’ 2015 delivery declined US$ 5.96 (-10.37%) per MT month over month and US$ 0.98 (- ...
Sunday, 05 April 15
FREIGHT RATES UNDER PRESSURE WEEK OVER WEEK
COALspot.com: The Indices fell on all segments and the market seemed to soften this week.
The BDI was almost lost 1.34% week over week and clo ...
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- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Australian Coal Association
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Planning Commission, India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- PTC India Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- White Energy Company Limited
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
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