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Wednesday, 22 July 15
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - PANOS TSILINGIRIS | INTERMODAL
 In both bulk shipping sectors, there are certain, yet different, reasons and strategies to invest. In the wet, buy once you can charter-out long, while in the dry go long on chartering-in or buy and wait.
In the wet sector, buying a 5-year old Tanker and chartering it out for 3-years would return back a significant part of the investment, namely, 35-40% in all sectors from MR to VLCCs. The Price to 1-year Earnings(annualized 3-year T/C Revenues minus OPEX) ratios for all tanker sectors are in the region of 7.45 and 8.63, well below the several last years’ averages, which renders investments with fixed charters attractive. The anticipated correction in product tankers due to the significant deliveries did not materialize with the demand absorbing the supply. At the same time, the crude sector enjoys the strongest freight market since 2008-09. 15-year old VLCCs, which had reached valuations below $20m in 2012/13 are today valued double that price at shy/rgn $40m. However, the crude tanker order book is increasing and the challenging conditions for shipyards may tempt them to lower/control their prices further to get more new building orders. So, the implied strategy for tankers is buy if you can charter-out long-term at the current firm rates.
In the dry sector, Messrs. Fredriksen, Embiricos, Chandris, Angelicoussis, Martinos extended family, Prokopiou, Hadjiyiannis (Cyprus) are just a few amongst distinguished counter-cyclical peers who have made decisive moves during this 1st half. 15-yo Capes were sold in the $9m’s, about one third of the price paid 15 months earlier.
Interestingly, in the last couple of weeks, prices for modern Kamsarmaxes have increased almost 10% for the first time since March 2014 while competition and the number of inspecting parties is rising. Meantime, the BDI has more than doubled since February’s historical lows. The record scrapping of the 1st half and the limited new building orders during the last year point to an eventual recovery. The short term momentum for asset values is rosy, while the longer (3-year) t/c rates remain extremely depressed and represent a promising alternative vehicle of investment although the owners willing to charter-out on a long basis are scarce.
Finally, we have calculated the ratios of the Price of a 5-year old vessel over its 1-year earnings. We used 3-year T/C rates (on an annualized basis) to remove excess ‘noise’ and since both asset values and longer-T/C rates incorporate certain (ir-)rational expectations. No strong pattern was revealed. Still the strongest incentive to invest is ‘buy as low as it gets’ even if the underlying freight market is depressed or ‘buy and fix long’ when P/E’s are low.
By Panos Tsilingiris
SnP/Newbuildings Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 10 April 15
DRY BULK MARKET'S DOWNFALL ALSO OFFER INVESTMENT BARGAINS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
Dry bulk market rates have fallen to historical lows over the past few weeks, with no clear path of recovery, at least in the near term. As such, m ...
Thursday, 09 April 15
CAPESIZE: RATES ARE STILL DISAPPOINTING - FEARNLEYS
Handy
The handy market had a stronger sentiment before the Easter holidays, but have as the bigger panamaxes seen a softening tendency this week. ...
Wednesday, 08 April 15
DRY BULK MARKET SEEMS UNABLE TO CATCH A BREAK - INTERMODAL
COALspot.com: The Dry Bulk market seems unable to catch a break these days.
According to Intermodal, following the market stabilization that p ...
Wednesday, 08 April 15
CHINA BURNS HALF OF THE WORLD'S COAL - CHRISTOPHER T. WHITTY
Intermodal Weekly Market Update
China is the world's largest consumer of coal, using more coal each year than the United States, the Europ ...
Tuesday, 07 April 15
SUB-BIT FOB INDONESIA COAL SWAP KEEPS DROPPING; DROPPED 2% W-W
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swap for delivery Q2 2015 declined month on month and week over week.
The Q2 swap was declined US$ 2.44 (5.14%) ...
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- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Australian Coal Association
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
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