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Wednesday, 22 July 15
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - PANOS TSILINGIRIS | INTERMODAL
 In both bulk shipping sectors, there are certain, yet different, reasons and strategies to invest. In the wet, buy once you can charter-out long, while in the dry go long on chartering-in or buy and wait.
In the wet sector, buying a 5-year old Tanker and chartering it out for 3-years would return back a significant part of the investment, namely, 35-40% in all sectors from MR to VLCCs. The Price to 1-year Earnings(annualized 3-year T/C Revenues minus OPEX) ratios for all tanker sectors are in the region of 7.45 and 8.63, well below the several last years’ averages, which renders investments with fixed charters attractive. The anticipated correction in product tankers due to the significant deliveries did not materialize with the demand absorbing the supply. At the same time, the crude sector enjoys the strongest freight market since 2008-09. 15-year old VLCCs, which had reached valuations below $20m in 2012/13 are today valued double that price at shy/rgn $40m. However, the crude tanker order book is increasing and the challenging conditions for shipyards may tempt them to lower/control their prices further to get more new building orders. So, the implied strategy for tankers is buy if you can charter-out long-term at the current firm rates.
In the dry sector, Messrs. Fredriksen, Embiricos, Chandris, Angelicoussis, Martinos extended family, Prokopiou, Hadjiyiannis (Cyprus) are just a few amongst distinguished counter-cyclical peers who have made decisive moves during this 1st half. 15-yo Capes were sold in the $9m’s, about one third of the price paid 15 months earlier.
Interestingly, in the last couple of weeks, prices for modern Kamsarmaxes have increased almost 10% for the first time since March 2014 while competition and the number of inspecting parties is rising. Meantime, the BDI has more than doubled since February’s historical lows. The record scrapping of the 1st half and the limited new building orders during the last year point to an eventual recovery. The short term momentum for asset values is rosy, while the longer (3-year) t/c rates remain extremely depressed and represent a promising alternative vehicle of investment although the owners willing to charter-out on a long basis are scarce.
Finally, we have calculated the ratios of the Price of a 5-year old vessel over its 1-year earnings. We used 3-year T/C rates (on an annualized basis) to remove excess ‘noise’ and since both asset values and longer-T/C rates incorporate certain (ir-)rational expectations. No strong pattern was revealed. Still the strongest incentive to invest is ‘buy as low as it gets’ even if the underlying freight market is depressed or ‘buy and fix long’ when P/E’s are low.
By Panos Tsilingiris
SnP/Newbuildings Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 01 April 15
SUPRAMAX & HANDY: RATES HELD STEADY TOWARDS THE WEEKEND
“Despite the fact that the Dry Bulk market closed off on the green last week, sentiment didn't improve by any means, not only because of ...
Wednesday, 01 April 15
WEEKLY SHIPPING MARKET UPDATE - INTERMODAL
There is no doubt that we are still witnessing a very challenging and at the same time very uncertain market, both with respect to dry chartering a ...
Wednesday, 01 April 15
Q4' 15 INDONESIA COAL SWAP CLOSED AT $45.15 W/E 27 MARCH 2015
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swap for delivery Q2' 2015 drops month on month and week over week.
The Q2 swap declined US$ 1.54 (3.24%) mo ...
Tuesday, 31 March 15
RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAPS GAIN WEEK OVER WEEK
COALspot.com: API 4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap for delivery Q2' 2015 declined month over month but increased week on week.
The Q2 swap has ...
Monday, 30 March 15
WORST IS OVER FOR THE DRY BULK MARKET, BUT THE PAIN WILL REMAIN FOR YEARS TO COME, SAYS BIMCO CHIEF ANALYST - HELLENIC SHIPPING
The current demise of the dry bulk market isn’t one to go away anytime soon. That doesn’t mean that it can’t improve, with all sh ...
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- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- The University of Queensland
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Planning Commission, India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
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