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Wednesday, 22 July 15
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - PANOS TSILINGIRIS | INTERMODAL
 In both bulk shipping sectors, there are certain, yet different, reasons and strategies to invest. In the wet, buy once you can charter-out long, while in the dry go long on chartering-in or buy and wait.
In the wet sector, buying a 5-year old Tanker and chartering it out for 3-years would return back a significant part of the investment, namely, 35-40% in all sectors from MR to VLCCs. The Price to 1-year Earnings(annualized 3-year T/C Revenues minus OPEX) ratios for all tanker sectors are in the region of 7.45 and 8.63, well below the several last years’ averages, which renders investments with fixed charters attractive. The anticipated correction in product tankers due to the significant deliveries did not materialize with the demand absorbing the supply. At the same time, the crude sector enjoys the strongest freight market since 2008-09. 15-year old VLCCs, which had reached valuations below $20m in 2012/13 are today valued double that price at shy/rgn $40m. However, the crude tanker order book is increasing and the challenging conditions for shipyards may tempt them to lower/control their prices further to get more new building orders. So, the implied strategy for tankers is buy if you can charter-out long-term at the current firm rates.
In the dry sector, Messrs. Fredriksen, Embiricos, Chandris, Angelicoussis, Martinos extended family, Prokopiou, Hadjiyiannis (Cyprus) are just a few amongst distinguished counter-cyclical peers who have made decisive moves during this 1st half. 15-yo Capes were sold in the $9m’s, about one third of the price paid 15 months earlier.
Interestingly, in the last couple of weeks, prices for modern Kamsarmaxes have increased almost 10% for the first time since March 2014 while competition and the number of inspecting parties is rising. Meantime, the BDI has more than doubled since February’s historical lows. The record scrapping of the 1st half and the limited new building orders during the last year point to an eventual recovery. The short term momentum for asset values is rosy, while the longer (3-year) t/c rates remain extremely depressed and represent a promising alternative vehicle of investment although the owners willing to charter-out on a long basis are scarce.
Finally, we have calculated the ratios of the Price of a 5-year old vessel over its 1-year earnings. We used 3-year T/C rates (on an annualized basis) to remove excess ‘noise’ and since both asset values and longer-T/C rates incorporate certain (ir-)rational expectations. No strong pattern was revealed. Still the strongest incentive to invest is ‘buy as low as it gets’ even if the underlying freight market is depressed or ‘buy and fix long’ when P/E’s are low.
By Panos Tsilingiris
SnP/Newbuildings Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Monday, 30 March 15
Q3' 15 CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP: DECLINED 8.7% M-M; 12.77% Y-TO-D
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for Q2’ 2015 delivery declined US$ 5.00 (-8.70%) per MT month over month and US$ 1.33 (-2 ...
Monday, 30 March 15
Q2' FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAP CLOSED 4.47% HIGHER THAN Q4' CLOSING PRICE
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q2’ 2015 delivery declined US$ 5.42 per MT (-10.43%) month over month and US$ 1.60 (-3.32%) w ...
Sunday, 29 March 15
INDO - INDIA: SUPRAMAX & PANAMAX FREIGHT MARKET STEADY
COALspot.com: The freight market was almost stable as all segments slightly up except Panamax sector.
The BDI was up by just 0.85% week over w ...
Saturday, 28 March 15
IS NORTHERN EUROPE THE NEW MINING ELDORADO?
The Europe Mining 2015 Summit, organised by Global Summits organizer IRN on 17-18 June in Amsterdam, The Netherlands, will gather senior level repr ...
Saturday, 28 March 15
THE DRY BULK FLEET AT BREAKING POINT - CLARKSONS
The severe oversupply in the bulkcarrier fleet has contributed to the current trough in the dry bulk market, putting considerable financial pressur ...
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- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- The University of Queensland
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Australian Coal Association
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Planning Commission, India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
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