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Wednesday, 22 July 15
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - PANOS TSILINGIRIS | INTERMODAL
 In both bulk shipping sectors, there are certain, yet different, reasons and strategies to invest. In the wet, buy once you can charter-out long, while in the dry go long on chartering-in or buy and wait.
In the wet sector, buying a 5-year old Tanker and chartering it out for 3-years would return back a significant part of the investment, namely, 35-40% in all sectors from MR to VLCCs. The Price to 1-year Earnings(annualized 3-year T/C Revenues minus OPEX) ratios for all tanker sectors are in the region of 7.45 and 8.63, well below the several last years’ averages, which renders investments with fixed charters attractive. The anticipated correction in product tankers due to the significant deliveries did not materialize with the demand absorbing the supply. At the same time, the crude sector enjoys the strongest freight market since 2008-09. 15-year old VLCCs, which had reached valuations below $20m in 2012/13 are today valued double that price at shy/rgn $40m. However, the crude tanker order book is increasing and the challenging conditions for shipyards may tempt them to lower/control their prices further to get more new building orders. So, the implied strategy for tankers is buy if you can charter-out long-term at the current firm rates.
In the dry sector, Messrs. Fredriksen, Embiricos, Chandris, Angelicoussis, Martinos extended family, Prokopiou, Hadjiyiannis (Cyprus) are just a few amongst distinguished counter-cyclical peers who have made decisive moves during this 1st half. 15-yo Capes were sold in the $9m’s, about one third of the price paid 15 months earlier.
Interestingly, in the last couple of weeks, prices for modern Kamsarmaxes have increased almost 10% for the first time since March 2014 while competition and the number of inspecting parties is rising. Meantime, the BDI has more than doubled since February’s historical lows. The record scrapping of the 1st half and the limited new building orders during the last year point to an eventual recovery. The short term momentum for asset values is rosy, while the longer (3-year) t/c rates remain extremely depressed and represent a promising alternative vehicle of investment although the owners willing to charter-out on a long basis are scarce.
Finally, we have calculated the ratios of the Price of a 5-year old vessel over its 1-year earnings. We used 3-year T/C rates (on an annualized basis) to remove excess ‘noise’ and since both asset values and longer-T/C rates incorporate certain (ir-)rational expectations. No strong pattern was revealed. Still the strongest incentive to invest is ‘buy as low as it gets’ even if the underlying freight market is depressed or ‘buy and fix long’ when P/E’s are low.
By Panos Tsilingiris
SnP/Newbuildings Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Tuesday, 14 April 15
SUB-BIT FOB INDONESIA COAL SWAPS FOR Q4 DELIVERY CRASHES THROUGH $44
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swap for delivery Q2 2015 declined month on month and week over week.
The Q2 swap was declined US$ 2.25 (4.77%) ...
Monday, 13 April 15
Q2 FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAP CLOSED AT $45.28 PMT; DECLINED 7.50% M-M
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q2’ 2015 delivery declined US$ 3.67 per MT (-7.50%) month over month and US$ 0.39 week on wee ...
Monday, 13 April 15
Q4 CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP CLOSED AT US$ 50.97
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for Q2’ 2015 delivery declined US$ 4.50 (-8.05%) per MT month over month and US$ 0.12 (-0 ...
Sunday, 12 April 15
INDONESIA TO INDIA FREIGHT RATE IS EXPECTED TO BE SOFT
COALspot.com: The freight market was steady, however the BDI was declined slightly week over week.
BDI dropped 1.36 pct and closed at 580 poin ...
Friday, 10 April 15
US COAL PRODUCTION FELL 4.7% W-O-W : EIA
COALspot.com – United States the second largest coal producer in the world has produced approximately totaled an estimated 17.4 million short ...
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- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Planning Commission, India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Australian Coal Association
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- PTC India Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
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