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Wednesday, 22 July 15
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - PANOS TSILINGIRIS | INTERMODAL
 In both bulk shipping sectors, there are certain, yet different, reasons and strategies to invest. In the wet, buy once you can charter-out long, while in the dry go long on chartering-in or buy and wait.
In the wet sector, buying a 5-year old Tanker and chartering it out for 3-years would return back a significant part of the investment, namely, 35-40% in all sectors from MR to VLCCs. The Price to 1-year Earnings(annualized 3-year T/C Revenues minus OPEX) ratios for all tanker sectors are in the region of 7.45 and 8.63, well below the several last years’ averages, which renders investments with fixed charters attractive. The anticipated correction in product tankers due to the significant deliveries did not materialize with the demand absorbing the supply. At the same time, the crude sector enjoys the strongest freight market since 2008-09. 15-year old VLCCs, which had reached valuations below $20m in 2012/13 are today valued double that price at shy/rgn $40m. However, the crude tanker order book is increasing and the challenging conditions for shipyards may tempt them to lower/control their prices further to get more new building orders. So, the implied strategy for tankers is buy if you can charter-out long-term at the current firm rates.
In the dry sector, Messrs. Fredriksen, Embiricos, Chandris, Angelicoussis, Martinos extended family, Prokopiou, Hadjiyiannis (Cyprus) are just a few amongst distinguished counter-cyclical peers who have made decisive moves during this 1st half. 15-yo Capes were sold in the $9m’s, about one third of the price paid 15 months earlier.
Interestingly, in the last couple of weeks, prices for modern Kamsarmaxes have increased almost 10% for the first time since March 2014 while competition and the number of inspecting parties is rising. Meantime, the BDI has more than doubled since February’s historical lows. The record scrapping of the 1st half and the limited new building orders during the last year point to an eventual recovery. The short term momentum for asset values is rosy, while the longer (3-year) t/c rates remain extremely depressed and represent a promising alternative vehicle of investment although the owners willing to charter-out on a long basis are scarce.
Finally, we have calculated the ratios of the Price of a 5-year old vessel over its 1-year earnings. We used 3-year T/C rates (on an annualized basis) to remove excess ‘noise’ and since both asset values and longer-T/C rates incorporate certain (ir-)rational expectations. No strong pattern was revealed. Still the strongest incentive to invest is ‘buy as low as it gets’ even if the underlying freight market is depressed or ‘buy and fix long’ when P/E’s are low.
By Panos Tsilingiris
SnP/Newbuildings Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 16 April 15
INDIA: COAL IMPORTS RISE BY 33 PC TO 240 MT IN FY'15 - PTI
India’s coal imports in the just concluded FY 2015 increased by 33 per cent to about 240 million tonnes.
“Coal import have gone up ...
Thursday, 16 April 15
CAPESIZE: THE SUPPLY AND DEMAND SIDE ARE NOW SUFFERING HEAVILY - FEARNLEYS
Handy
It seems to be some standoff between owners and charterers in both hemispheres this week. Owners are raising their rates while charterers a ...
Thursday, 16 April 15
Q3 FOB RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAP CLOSED AT $ 55.67 PMT
COALspot.com: API4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap for delivery Q2' 2015 declined month over month.
The Q2 swap has declined US$ 1.90 (3.17%) m ...
Wednesday, 15 April 15
PORT OF NEWCASTLE SHIPPED 13.63 MMT OF COAL IN MARCH; UP 4.41% M-O-M
COALspot.com: The Port of Newcastle, Australia’s major trading ports and the world’s largest coal export port, has shipped $1.227 billi ...
Tuesday, 14 April 15
COAL OUTPUT FALLS AS PRICES CONTINUE TO LAG - JP
Coal output dropped by 21 percent in the first three months of the year as low prices for the commodity forced mining companies to reduce activitie ...
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- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Planning Commission, India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Australian Coal Association
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- The University of Queensland
- PTC India Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- White Energy Company Limited
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
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