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Wednesday, 22 July 15
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - PANOS TSILINGIRIS | INTERMODAL
 In both bulk shipping sectors, there are certain, yet different, reasons and strategies to invest. In the wet, buy once you can charter-out long, while in the dry go long on chartering-in or buy and wait.
In the wet sector, buying a 5-year old Tanker and chartering it out for 3-years would return back a significant part of the investment, namely, 35-40% in all sectors from MR to VLCCs. The Price to 1-year Earnings(annualized 3-year T/C Revenues minus OPEX) ratios for all tanker sectors are in the region of 7.45 and 8.63, well below the several last years’ averages, which renders investments with fixed charters attractive. The anticipated correction in product tankers due to the significant deliveries did not materialize with the demand absorbing the supply. At the same time, the crude sector enjoys the strongest freight market since 2008-09. 15-year old VLCCs, which had reached valuations below $20m in 2012/13 are today valued double that price at shy/rgn $40m. However, the crude tanker order book is increasing and the challenging conditions for shipyards may tempt them to lower/control their prices further to get more new building orders. So, the implied strategy for tankers is buy if you can charter-out long-term at the current firm rates.
In the dry sector, Messrs. Fredriksen, Embiricos, Chandris, Angelicoussis, Martinos extended family, Prokopiou, Hadjiyiannis (Cyprus) are just a few amongst distinguished counter-cyclical peers who have made decisive moves during this 1st half. 15-yo Capes were sold in the $9m’s, about one third of the price paid 15 months earlier.
Interestingly, in the last couple of weeks, prices for modern Kamsarmaxes have increased almost 10% for the first time since March 2014 while competition and the number of inspecting parties is rising. Meantime, the BDI has more than doubled since February’s historical lows. The record scrapping of the 1st half and the limited new building orders during the last year point to an eventual recovery. The short term momentum for asset values is rosy, while the longer (3-year) t/c rates remain extremely depressed and represent a promising alternative vehicle of investment although the owners willing to charter-out on a long basis are scarce.
Finally, we have calculated the ratios of the Price of a 5-year old vessel over its 1-year earnings. We used 3-year T/C rates (on an annualized basis) to remove excess ‘noise’ and since both asset values and longer-T/C rates incorporate certain (ir-)rational expectations. No strong pattern was revealed. Still the strongest incentive to invest is ‘buy as low as it gets’ even if the underlying freight market is depressed or ‘buy and fix long’ when P/E’s are low.
By Panos Tsilingiris
SnP/Newbuildings Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Sunday, 19 April 15
THE OCEAN FREIGHT MARKET SHOWED STEADY THIS WEEK
COALspot.com: The freight market was fairly steady this week. The BDI was up 2.93% to 597 points week over week. The cape index was also increased ...
Friday, 17 April 15
IHS ENERGY EUROPEAN COAL OUTLOOK CONFERENCE
Attend the IHS Energy European Coal Outlook Conference 19-20 May in Nice, France and learn about timely concerns in today’s coal industry.
...
Friday, 17 April 15
COAL PRODUCTION IN THE U.S. UP THIS PAST WEEK - EIA
COALspot.com – United States the second largest coal producer in the world has produced approximately totaled an estimated 18.0 million short ...
Thursday, 16 April 15
NEW COMMODITY SUPERHIGHWAY WILL EMERGE IN CHINA, ALTERING ENERGY TRADE FLOWS - WOOD MACKENZIE
Wood Mackenzie says that China’s Go West strategy – encouraging coastal to inland flow of capital and people - will result in the forma ...
Thursday, 16 April 15
SHIPPING DEMAND TO SUFFER AS CHINESE SLOWDOWN CONFIRMED SAYS BIMCO'S CHIEF SHIPPING ANALYST - BIMCO
The Chinese economy grew by 7.0% y-o-y in the first quarter of 2015, according to National Bureau of Statistics in China. This is the weakest overa ...
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- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- The University of Queensland
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- White Energy Company Limited
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- PTC India Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Parliament of New Zealand
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
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