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Wednesday, 22 July 15
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - PANOS TSILINGIRIS | INTERMODAL
 In both bulk shipping sectors, there are certain, yet different, reasons and strategies to invest. In the wet, buy once you can charter-out long, while in the dry go long on chartering-in or buy and wait.
In the wet sector, buying a 5-year old Tanker and chartering it out for 3-years would return back a significant part of the investment, namely, 35-40% in all sectors from MR to VLCCs. The Price to 1-year Earnings(annualized 3-year T/C Revenues minus OPEX) ratios for all tanker sectors are in the region of 7.45 and 8.63, well below the several last years’ averages, which renders investments with fixed charters attractive. The anticipated correction in product tankers due to the significant deliveries did not materialize with the demand absorbing the supply. At the same time, the crude sector enjoys the strongest freight market since 2008-09. 15-year old VLCCs, which had reached valuations below $20m in 2012/13 are today valued double that price at shy/rgn $40m. However, the crude tanker order book is increasing and the challenging conditions for shipyards may tempt them to lower/control their prices further to get more new building orders. So, the implied strategy for tankers is buy if you can charter-out long-term at the current firm rates.
In the dry sector, Messrs. Fredriksen, Embiricos, Chandris, Angelicoussis, Martinos extended family, Prokopiou, Hadjiyiannis (Cyprus) are just a few amongst distinguished counter-cyclical peers who have made decisive moves during this 1st half. 15-yo Capes were sold in the $9m’s, about one third of the price paid 15 months earlier.
Interestingly, in the last couple of weeks, prices for modern Kamsarmaxes have increased almost 10% for the first time since March 2014 while competition and the number of inspecting parties is rising. Meantime, the BDI has more than doubled since February’s historical lows. The record scrapping of the 1st half and the limited new building orders during the last year point to an eventual recovery. The short term momentum for asset values is rosy, while the longer (3-year) t/c rates remain extremely depressed and represent a promising alternative vehicle of investment although the owners willing to charter-out on a long basis are scarce.
Finally, we have calculated the ratios of the Price of a 5-year old vessel over its 1-year earnings. We used 3-year T/C rates (on an annualized basis) to remove excess ‘noise’ and since both asset values and longer-T/C rates incorporate certain (ir-)rational expectations. No strong pattern was revealed. Still the strongest incentive to invest is ‘buy as low as it gets’ even if the underlying freight market is depressed or ‘buy and fix long’ when P/E’s are low.
By Panos Tsilingiris
SnP/Newbuildings Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 21 April 15
SUB-BIT FOB INDONESIA COAL SWAP: GAINED W-O-W; DECLINED M-O-M
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swap for delivery Q2 2015 gained week over week and declined month on month.
The Q2 swap was declined US$ 1.75 ( ...
Tuesday, 21 April 15
FOB RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAP MOVE UP SLIGHTLY
COALspot.com: API4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap for delivery Q2' 2015 increased slightly month over month.
The Q2 swap has increased US$ 0.2 ...
Monday, 20 April 15
BUKIT ASAM TAKES OVER STAKE IN JV FROM RAJAWALI - JP
State-owned coal miner PT Bukit Asam (PTBA) announced Friday that it had taken over almost the entire stake in a joint venture (JV) that it created ...
Monday, 20 April 15
FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAP GAINED WEEK ON WEEK
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q2’ 2015 delivery declined US$ 3.54 per MT (-7.21%) month over month and gained US$ 0.30 week ...
Monday, 20 April 15
Q4' 2015 API 8 CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP CLOSED US$ 50.28 PMT
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for Q2’ 2015 delivery declined US$ 4.03 (-7.28%) per MT month over month and US$ 0.05 (-0 ...
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- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- White Energy Company Limited
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
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