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Wednesday, 22 July 15
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - PANOS TSILINGIRIS | INTERMODAL
 In both bulk shipping sectors, there are certain, yet different, reasons and strategies to invest. In the wet, buy once you can charter-out long, while in the dry go long on chartering-in or buy and wait.
In the wet sector, buying a 5-year old Tanker and chartering it out for 3-years would return back a significant part of the investment, namely, 35-40% in all sectors from MR to VLCCs. The Price to 1-year Earnings(annualized 3-year T/C Revenues minus OPEX) ratios for all tanker sectors are in the region of 7.45 and 8.63, well below the several last years’ averages, which renders investments with fixed charters attractive. The anticipated correction in product tankers due to the significant deliveries did not materialize with the demand absorbing the supply. At the same time, the crude sector enjoys the strongest freight market since 2008-09. 15-year old VLCCs, which had reached valuations below $20m in 2012/13 are today valued double that price at shy/rgn $40m. However, the crude tanker order book is increasing and the challenging conditions for shipyards may tempt them to lower/control their prices further to get more new building orders. So, the implied strategy for tankers is buy if you can charter-out long-term at the current firm rates.
In the dry sector, Messrs. Fredriksen, Embiricos, Chandris, Angelicoussis, Martinos extended family, Prokopiou, Hadjiyiannis (Cyprus) are just a few amongst distinguished counter-cyclical peers who have made decisive moves during this 1st half. 15-yo Capes were sold in the $9m’s, about one third of the price paid 15 months earlier.
Interestingly, in the last couple of weeks, prices for modern Kamsarmaxes have increased almost 10% for the first time since March 2014 while competition and the number of inspecting parties is rising. Meantime, the BDI has more than doubled since February’s historical lows. The record scrapping of the 1st half and the limited new building orders during the last year point to an eventual recovery. The short term momentum for asset values is rosy, while the longer (3-year) t/c rates remain extremely depressed and represent a promising alternative vehicle of investment although the owners willing to charter-out on a long basis are scarce.
Finally, we have calculated the ratios of the Price of a 5-year old vessel over its 1-year earnings. We used 3-year T/C rates (on an annualized basis) to remove excess ‘noise’ and since both asset values and longer-T/C rates incorporate certain (ir-)rational expectations. No strong pattern was revealed. Still the strongest incentive to invest is ‘buy as low as it gets’ even if the underlying freight market is depressed or ‘buy and fix long’ when P/E’s are low.
By Panos Tsilingiris
SnP/Newbuildings Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 24 April 15
IS INDIA THE 'NEW CHINA' WHEN IT COMES TO THE DRY BULK MARKET? - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
The dry bulk market has been feeling the “heat” of China’s slowdown and together with the industry’s own failings, with ove ...
Friday, 24 April 15
GLOBAL STEEL PRODUCTION OUTSIDE OF CHINA CONTINUES TO FARE VERY POORLY - JEFFREY LANDSBERG
COALspot.com: Data released this week showed that global crude steel production totaled approximately 138.05 million tons in March.
Wha ...
Friday, 24 April 15
WEEKLY U.S. COAL PRODUCTION ESTIMATE FALLS 5.7% FROM LAST WEEK
COALspot.com – United States the second largest coal producer in the world has produced approximately totaled an estimated 17.0 million short ...
Wednesday, 22 April 15
PANAMAX : ATLANTIC HOLDING ON TO THE GAINS OF THE PREVIOUS WEEK; PACIFIC BUSINESS SLID QUIETLY
COALspot.com: The Dry Bulk market managed to close off the week on a positive note last Friday, while as opposed to what we have been used to, it w ...
Wednesday, 22 April 15
TANKER MARKET INSIGHT - STRATOS TINIAKOS
The current environment we experience as a result of low crude oil prices is characterized by the increased demand for petroleum products in OECD c ...
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- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Parliament of New Zealand
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Australian Coal Association
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- PTC India Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Planning Commission, India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
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