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Wednesday, 22 July 15
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - PANOS TSILINGIRIS | INTERMODAL
 In both bulk shipping sectors, there are certain, yet different, reasons and strategies to invest. In the wet, buy once you can charter-out long, while in the dry go long on chartering-in or buy and wait.
In the wet sector, buying a 5-year old Tanker and chartering it out for 3-years would return back a significant part of the investment, namely, 35-40% in all sectors from MR to VLCCs. The Price to 1-year Earnings(annualized 3-year T/C Revenues minus OPEX) ratios for all tanker sectors are in the region of 7.45 and 8.63, well below the several last years’ averages, which renders investments with fixed charters attractive. The anticipated correction in product tankers due to the significant deliveries did not materialize with the demand absorbing the supply. At the same time, the crude sector enjoys the strongest freight market since 2008-09. 15-year old VLCCs, which had reached valuations below $20m in 2012/13 are today valued double that price at shy/rgn $40m. However, the crude tanker order book is increasing and the challenging conditions for shipyards may tempt them to lower/control their prices further to get more new building orders. So, the implied strategy for tankers is buy if you can charter-out long-term at the current firm rates.
In the dry sector, Messrs. Fredriksen, Embiricos, Chandris, Angelicoussis, Martinos extended family, Prokopiou, Hadjiyiannis (Cyprus) are just a few amongst distinguished counter-cyclical peers who have made decisive moves during this 1st half. 15-yo Capes were sold in the $9m’s, about one third of the price paid 15 months earlier.
Interestingly, in the last couple of weeks, prices for modern Kamsarmaxes have increased almost 10% for the first time since March 2014 while competition and the number of inspecting parties is rising. Meantime, the BDI has more than doubled since February’s historical lows. The record scrapping of the 1st half and the limited new building orders during the last year point to an eventual recovery. The short term momentum for asset values is rosy, while the longer (3-year) t/c rates remain extremely depressed and represent a promising alternative vehicle of investment although the owners willing to charter-out on a long basis are scarce.
Finally, we have calculated the ratios of the Price of a 5-year old vessel over its 1-year earnings. We used 3-year T/C rates (on an annualized basis) to remove excess ‘noise’ and since both asset values and longer-T/C rates incorporate certain (ir-)rational expectations. No strong pattern was revealed. Still the strongest incentive to invest is ‘buy as low as it gets’ even if the underlying freight market is depressed or ‘buy and fix long’ when P/E’s are low.
By Panos Tsilingiris
SnP/Newbuildings Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 27 April 15
U.S. COAL PRODUCTION FELL BELOW ONE BILLION SHORT TONS IN 2013 - EIA
COALspot.com: For the first time in two decades, U.S. coal production fell below one billion short tons to 984.8 million short tons in 2013 from 1, ...
Monday, 27 April 15
Q3' 2015 FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAP CLOSED 3.69% LOWER THAN Q2' 2015 PRICE OF $46.36
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q2’ 2015 delivery gained US$ 0.19 per MT (0.41%) month over month and US$ 0.78 week on week. ...
Monday, 27 April 15
CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP SLOWLY IMPROVED THIS PAST WEEK
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for Q2’ 2015 delivery declined US$ 0.74 (-1.41%) per MT month over month and increased US$ 0.43 ...
Sunday, 26 April 15
DRY BULK MARKET KEPT IMPROVING THIS WEEK; CAPES AND PANAMAXES SHOW A SLIGHT PICKUP IN RATES
COALspot.com: The freight market was stable this week as BDI closed at 600 points after improving 0.50 percent week over week.
The cape ...
Friday, 24 April 15
CHINA IRON ORE MINE CLOSURES TO SLOW ON GOVERNMENT SUPPORT - FITCH
Fitch Ratings expects fewer Chinese iron ore mine closures in 2015 as the government takes steps to support the industry, which has been struggling ...
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- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Economic Council, Georgia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Australian Coal Association
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
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