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Wednesday, 22 July 15
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - PANOS TSILINGIRIS | INTERMODAL
 In both bulk shipping sectors, there are certain, yet different, reasons and strategies to invest. In the wet, buy once you can charter-out long, while in the dry go long on chartering-in or buy and wait.
In the wet sector, buying a 5-year old Tanker and chartering it out for 3-years would return back a significant part of the investment, namely, 35-40% in all sectors from MR to VLCCs. The Price to 1-year Earnings(annualized 3-year T/C Revenues minus OPEX) ratios for all tanker sectors are in the region of 7.45 and 8.63, well below the several last years’ averages, which renders investments with fixed charters attractive. The anticipated correction in product tankers due to the significant deliveries did not materialize with the demand absorbing the supply. At the same time, the crude sector enjoys the strongest freight market since 2008-09. 15-year old VLCCs, which had reached valuations below $20m in 2012/13 are today valued double that price at shy/rgn $40m. However, the crude tanker order book is increasing and the challenging conditions for shipyards may tempt them to lower/control their prices further to get more new building orders. So, the implied strategy for tankers is buy if you can charter-out long-term at the current firm rates.
In the dry sector, Messrs. Fredriksen, Embiricos, Chandris, Angelicoussis, Martinos extended family, Prokopiou, Hadjiyiannis (Cyprus) are just a few amongst distinguished counter-cyclical peers who have made decisive moves during this 1st half. 15-yo Capes were sold in the $9m’s, about one third of the price paid 15 months earlier.
Interestingly, in the last couple of weeks, prices for modern Kamsarmaxes have increased almost 10% for the first time since March 2014 while competition and the number of inspecting parties is rising. Meantime, the BDI has more than doubled since February’s historical lows. The record scrapping of the 1st half and the limited new building orders during the last year point to an eventual recovery. The short term momentum for asset values is rosy, while the longer (3-year) t/c rates remain extremely depressed and represent a promising alternative vehicle of investment although the owners willing to charter-out on a long basis are scarce.
Finally, we have calculated the ratios of the Price of a 5-year old vessel over its 1-year earnings. We used 3-year T/C rates (on an annualized basis) to remove excess ‘noise’ and since both asset values and longer-T/C rates incorporate certain (ir-)rational expectations. No strong pattern was revealed. Still the strongest incentive to invest is ‘buy as low as it gets’ even if the underlying freight market is depressed or ‘buy and fix long’ when P/E’s are low.
By Panos Tsilingiris
SnP/Newbuildings Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 26 May 15
FOB INDONESIA COAL SWAP; UP WEEK OVER WEEK
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swap for delivery Q3 2015 gains week over week and lost month on month, this past week.
The Q3 swap was declined ...
Monday, 25 May 15
FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAP Q1'16 CLOSED LOWER THAN Q3'15 CLOSING
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q3’ 2015 delivery gained US$ 0.92 per MT (2.07%) month over month and US$ 0.70 week on week. ...
Monday, 25 May 15
CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP : Q3, Q4'15 & Q1'16 INCREASED M-O-M AND W-O-W
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for Q3’ 2015 delivery up US$ 1.55 (3.09%) per MT month over month and US$ 0.72 (1.41%) pe ...
Sunday, 24 May 15
INDONESIA TO INDIA PANAMAX CHARTER RATES WERE RATING AT AROUND US$ 5500
COALspot.com: The freight market softened in all segments this past week.
The BDI was dropped 7.57 percent week over week and closed at 586 po ...
Friday, 22 May 15
FOB INDONESIA COAL Q3'15 SWAP FINISHED THE WEEK UP 38 CENTS TO $43.65 PER MT
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swap for delivery Q3 2015 gains week over week and lost month on month, past week.
The Q3 swap was declined US$ ...
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- Planning Commission, India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- PTC India Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- White Energy Company Limited
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- The University of Queensland
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
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