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Wednesday, 22 July 15
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - PANOS TSILINGIRIS | INTERMODAL
 In both bulk shipping sectors, there are certain, yet different, reasons and strategies to invest. In the wet, buy once you can charter-out long, while in the dry go long on chartering-in or buy and wait.
In the wet sector, buying a 5-year old Tanker and chartering it out for 3-years would return back a significant part of the investment, namely, 35-40% in all sectors from MR to VLCCs. The Price to 1-year Earnings(annualized 3-year T/C Revenues minus OPEX) ratios for all tanker sectors are in the region of 7.45 and 8.63, well below the several last years’ averages, which renders investments with fixed charters attractive. The anticipated correction in product tankers due to the significant deliveries did not materialize with the demand absorbing the supply. At the same time, the crude sector enjoys the strongest freight market since 2008-09. 15-year old VLCCs, which had reached valuations below $20m in 2012/13 are today valued double that price at shy/rgn $40m. However, the crude tanker order book is increasing and the challenging conditions for shipyards may tempt them to lower/control their prices further to get more new building orders. So, the implied strategy for tankers is buy if you can charter-out long-term at the current firm rates.
In the dry sector, Messrs. Fredriksen, Embiricos, Chandris, Angelicoussis, Martinos extended family, Prokopiou, Hadjiyiannis (Cyprus) are just a few amongst distinguished counter-cyclical peers who have made decisive moves during this 1st half. 15-yo Capes were sold in the $9m’s, about one third of the price paid 15 months earlier.
Interestingly, in the last couple of weeks, prices for modern Kamsarmaxes have increased almost 10% for the first time since March 2014 while competition and the number of inspecting parties is rising. Meantime, the BDI has more than doubled since February’s historical lows. The record scrapping of the 1st half and the limited new building orders during the last year point to an eventual recovery. The short term momentum for asset values is rosy, while the longer (3-year) t/c rates remain extremely depressed and represent a promising alternative vehicle of investment although the owners willing to charter-out on a long basis are scarce.
Finally, we have calculated the ratios of the Price of a 5-year old vessel over its 1-year earnings. We used 3-year T/C rates (on an annualized basis) to remove excess ‘noise’ and since both asset values and longer-T/C rates incorporate certain (ir-)rational expectations. No strong pattern was revealed. Still the strongest incentive to invest is ‘buy as low as it gets’ even if the underlying freight market is depressed or ‘buy and fix long’ when P/E’s are low.
By Panos Tsilingiris
SnP/Newbuildings Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Monday, 01 June 15
API 5 FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAP; Q1'16 CLOSED LOWER COMPARED TO Q3'15
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q3’ 2015 delivery gained US$ 0.36 per MT (0.80%) month over month. The swap was closed at US$ ...
Monday, 01 June 15
CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP: GAINED W-W, M-M; Q1'16 CLOSED HIGHER THAN Q3'15
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for Q3’ 2015 delivery up US$ 1.15 (2.26%) per MT month over month.
A commodity swap is a f ...
Sunday, 31 May 15
CAPE AND PANAMAX SEGMENTS SLIDE CONTINUES
COALspot.com: The BDI was up about 0.5 pct week on week and closed at 589 points while the cape index was fell 0.73 pct and closed at 810 po ...
Friday, 29 May 15
DRY BULK MARKET IS THE VICTIM OF A SHIFT IN DEMAND - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
The fall in dry bulk freight rates is attributed, in large part, to the substantial decrease of China’s thermal coal imports, a major commodi ...
Friday, 29 May 15
COAL PRODUCTION IN THE U.S. ALMOST FLAT THIS PAST WEEK
COALspot.com – United States the second largest coal producer in the world has produced approximately totaled an estimated 16.1 million short ...
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- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
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