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Wednesday, 22 July 15
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - PANOS TSILINGIRIS | INTERMODAL
 In both bulk shipping sectors, there are certain, yet different, reasons and strategies to invest. In the wet, buy once you can charter-out long, while in the dry go long on chartering-in or buy and wait.
In the wet sector, buying a 5-year old Tanker and chartering it out for 3-years would return back a significant part of the investment, namely, 35-40% in all sectors from MR to VLCCs. The Price to 1-year Earnings(annualized 3-year T/C Revenues minus OPEX) ratios for all tanker sectors are in the region of 7.45 and 8.63, well below the several last years’ averages, which renders investments with fixed charters attractive. The anticipated correction in product tankers due to the significant deliveries did not materialize with the demand absorbing the supply. At the same time, the crude sector enjoys the strongest freight market since 2008-09. 15-year old VLCCs, which had reached valuations below $20m in 2012/13 are today valued double that price at shy/rgn $40m. However, the crude tanker order book is increasing and the challenging conditions for shipyards may tempt them to lower/control their prices further to get more new building orders. So, the implied strategy for tankers is buy if you can charter-out long-term at the current firm rates.
In the dry sector, Messrs. Fredriksen, Embiricos, Chandris, Angelicoussis, Martinos extended family, Prokopiou, Hadjiyiannis (Cyprus) are just a few amongst distinguished counter-cyclical peers who have made decisive moves during this 1st half. 15-yo Capes were sold in the $9m’s, about one third of the price paid 15 months earlier.
Interestingly, in the last couple of weeks, prices for modern Kamsarmaxes have increased almost 10% for the first time since March 2014 while competition and the number of inspecting parties is rising. Meantime, the BDI has more than doubled since February’s historical lows. The record scrapping of the 1st half and the limited new building orders during the last year point to an eventual recovery. The short term momentum for asset values is rosy, while the longer (3-year) t/c rates remain extremely depressed and represent a promising alternative vehicle of investment although the owners willing to charter-out on a long basis are scarce.
Finally, we have calculated the ratios of the Price of a 5-year old vessel over its 1-year earnings. We used 3-year T/C rates (on an annualized basis) to remove excess ‘noise’ and since both asset values and longer-T/C rates incorporate certain (ir-)rational expectations. No strong pattern was revealed. Still the strongest incentive to invest is ‘buy as low as it gets’ even if the underlying freight market is depressed or ‘buy and fix long’ when P/E’s are low.
By Panos Tsilingiris
SnP/Newbuildings Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 29 May 15
SOUTH KOREAN STATE-OWNED UTILITY KOREA MIDLAND POWER INVITES BIDS FOR 780K MT OF COAL FOR H2' 15
COALspot.com: South Korean state-owned utility Korea Midland Power (KOMIPO) issued an new tender to buy total 780K Metric Tons (MT) of HCV and LCV ...
Thursday, 28 May 15
TIMEBAR FOR DEMURRAGE CLAIMS - SKULD
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
English law has traditionally had a strict approach to contractually agreed time bars between commercial parties as well ...
Wednesday, 27 May 15
MARKET INSIGHT - TIMOS PAPADIMITRIOU
Earlier in the year I looked at how the market was reacting to the prolonged fall of the price of oil. Back then it was still unclear if the fallin ...
Tuesday, 26 May 15
HOW HAS THE DROP IN OIL PRICES AFFECTED OTHER COMMODITIES? - CLYDE & CO
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
The effects of the dramatic drop in the price of both Ice March Brent, the international oil marker, and its US counterpa ...
Tuesday, 26 May 15
MINING ASSOCIATION PERHAPI PUSHES FOR 35,000 MEGAWATT ELECTRICITY PROGRAM - JG
The Indonesian Mining Professionals Association, or Perhapi, has announced its support for a 35,000-megawatt national electricity program, saying i ...
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- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- PTC India Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
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