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Wednesday, 22 July 15
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - PANOS TSILINGIRIS | INTERMODAL
 In both bulk shipping sectors, there are certain, yet different, reasons and strategies to invest. In the wet, buy once you can charter-out long, while in the dry go long on chartering-in or buy and wait.
In the wet sector, buying a 5-year old Tanker and chartering it out for 3-years would return back a significant part of the investment, namely, 35-40% in all sectors from MR to VLCCs. The Price to 1-year Earnings(annualized 3-year T/C Revenues minus OPEX) ratios for all tanker sectors are in the region of 7.45 and 8.63, well below the several last years’ averages, which renders investments with fixed charters attractive. The anticipated correction in product tankers due to the significant deliveries did not materialize with the demand absorbing the supply. At the same time, the crude sector enjoys the strongest freight market since 2008-09. 15-year old VLCCs, which had reached valuations below $20m in 2012/13 are today valued double that price at shy/rgn $40m. However, the crude tanker order book is increasing and the challenging conditions for shipyards may tempt them to lower/control their prices further to get more new building orders. So, the implied strategy for tankers is buy if you can charter-out long-term at the current firm rates.
In the dry sector, Messrs. Fredriksen, Embiricos, Chandris, Angelicoussis, Martinos extended family, Prokopiou, Hadjiyiannis (Cyprus) are just a few amongst distinguished counter-cyclical peers who have made decisive moves during this 1st half. 15-yo Capes were sold in the $9m’s, about one third of the price paid 15 months earlier.
Interestingly, in the last couple of weeks, prices for modern Kamsarmaxes have increased almost 10% for the first time since March 2014 while competition and the number of inspecting parties is rising. Meantime, the BDI has more than doubled since February’s historical lows. The record scrapping of the 1st half and the limited new building orders during the last year point to an eventual recovery. The short term momentum for asset values is rosy, while the longer (3-year) t/c rates remain extremely depressed and represent a promising alternative vehicle of investment although the owners willing to charter-out on a long basis are scarce.
Finally, we have calculated the ratios of the Price of a 5-year old vessel over its 1-year earnings. We used 3-year T/C rates (on an annualized basis) to remove excess ‘noise’ and since both asset values and longer-T/C rates incorporate certain (ir-)rational expectations. No strong pattern was revealed. Still the strongest incentive to invest is ‘buy as low as it gets’ even if the underlying freight market is depressed or ‘buy and fix long’ when P/E’s are low.
By Panos Tsilingiris
SnP/Newbuildings Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 22 May 15
U.S WEEKLY COAL PRODUCTION STAYS FLAT AT 16 MMST
COALspot.com – United States the second largest coal producer in the world has produced approximately totaled an estimated 16.0 million short ...
Thursday, 21 May 15
PORT OF NEWCASTLE ACHIEVED ITS BEST EVER TOTAL COAL EXPORT TURNOVER OF 159 MILLION TONS IN 2014
COALspot.com: The Port of Newcastle, Australia’s major trading ports and the world’s largest coal export port, has shipped $900 million ...
Thursday, 21 May 15
ATLANTIC PANAMAX MARKET STARTED TO IMPROVE SLOWLY - INTERMODAL
COALspot.com: The Dry Bulk market closed off the week on the green last week, purely on the back of improved Capesize performance, while the rest o ...
Wednesday, 20 May 15
LOWER PRICES SEEN IN NEWBUILDING MARKET ON LOW DEMAND - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
Cash-rich ship owners, or at least, owners with substantial access to financing will be among the prime candidates, who will reap the benefits of t ...
Wednesday, 20 May 15
TANKER MARKET INSIGHT - JOHN N. COTZIAS
Since Early October 2014 the tanker market has been experiencing a very positive momentum and has continued its strong performance so far in 2015. ...
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- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- PTC India Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Australian Coal Association
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- White Energy Company Limited
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Planning Commission, India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
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