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Wednesday, 22 July 15
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - PANOS TSILINGIRIS | INTERMODAL
 In both bulk shipping sectors, there are certain, yet different, reasons and strategies to invest. In the wet, buy once you can charter-out long, while in the dry go long on chartering-in or buy and wait.
In the wet sector, buying a 5-year old Tanker and chartering it out for 3-years would return back a significant part of the investment, namely, 35-40% in all sectors from MR to VLCCs. The Price to 1-year Earnings(annualized 3-year T/C Revenues minus OPEX) ratios for all tanker sectors are in the region of 7.45 and 8.63, well below the several last years’ averages, which renders investments with fixed charters attractive. The anticipated correction in product tankers due to the significant deliveries did not materialize with the demand absorbing the supply. At the same time, the crude sector enjoys the strongest freight market since 2008-09. 15-year old VLCCs, which had reached valuations below $20m in 2012/13 are today valued double that price at shy/rgn $40m. However, the crude tanker order book is increasing and the challenging conditions for shipyards may tempt them to lower/control their prices further to get more new building orders. So, the implied strategy for tankers is buy if you can charter-out long-term at the current firm rates.
In the dry sector, Messrs. Fredriksen, Embiricos, Chandris, Angelicoussis, Martinos extended family, Prokopiou, Hadjiyiannis (Cyprus) are just a few amongst distinguished counter-cyclical peers who have made decisive moves during this 1st half. 15-yo Capes were sold in the $9m’s, about one third of the price paid 15 months earlier.
Interestingly, in the last couple of weeks, prices for modern Kamsarmaxes have increased almost 10% for the first time since March 2014 while competition and the number of inspecting parties is rising. Meantime, the BDI has more than doubled since February’s historical lows. The record scrapping of the 1st half and the limited new building orders during the last year point to an eventual recovery. The short term momentum for asset values is rosy, while the longer (3-year) t/c rates remain extremely depressed and represent a promising alternative vehicle of investment although the owners willing to charter-out on a long basis are scarce.
Finally, we have calculated the ratios of the Price of a 5-year old vessel over its 1-year earnings. We used 3-year T/C rates (on an annualized basis) to remove excess ‘noise’ and since both asset values and longer-T/C rates incorporate certain (ir-)rational expectations. No strong pattern was revealed. Still the strongest incentive to invest is ‘buy as low as it gets’ even if the underlying freight market is depressed or ‘buy and fix long’ when P/E’s are low.
By Panos Tsilingiris
SnP/Newbuildings Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 20 May 15
FOB RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAPS GAINED M-O-M, W-O-W
COALspot.com: API4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap for delivery Q3' 2015 increased month over month and week over week.
The Q3 swap has increas ...
Wednesday, 20 May 15
BUKIT ASAM'S AVERAGE EXPORT PRICE WAS UNDER PRESSURE DURING Q1
COALspot.com: Indonesia’s state owned coal producer saw their profits fall in the first quarter of the year compared to the same period last ...
Wednesday, 20 May 15
IRON ORE PRICES TO REMAIN WEAK ON LOW DEMAND, HIGH OUTPUT - FITCH
Iron ore prices will stay low for several years due to increasing supply, weak demand growth in China and the slower-than-expected closure of high- ...
Tuesday, 19 May 15
KOMIPO IS SEEKING TOTAL 2.34 MMT OF HCV AND LCV COAL FOR 2015 - 2017
COALspot.com: South Korean state-owned utility Korea Midland Power (KOMIPO) issued an new tender to buy total 2.34 million Metric Tons (MT) of HCV ...
Monday, 18 May 15
FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAPS SCORE MONTHLY GAINS
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q3’ 2015 delivery gained US$ 0.87 per MT (1.99%) month over month and lost US$ 0.03 week on w ...
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- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- The University of Queensland
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Planning Commission, India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
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