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Wednesday, 22 July 15
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - PANOS TSILINGIRIS | INTERMODAL
 In both bulk shipping sectors, there are certain, yet different, reasons and strategies to invest. In the wet, buy once you can charter-out long, while in the dry go long on chartering-in or buy and wait.
In the wet sector, buying a 5-year old Tanker and chartering it out for 3-years would return back a significant part of the investment, namely, 35-40% in all sectors from MR to VLCCs. The Price to 1-year Earnings(annualized 3-year T/C Revenues minus OPEX) ratios for all tanker sectors are in the region of 7.45 and 8.63, well below the several last years’ averages, which renders investments with fixed charters attractive. The anticipated correction in product tankers due to the significant deliveries did not materialize with the demand absorbing the supply. At the same time, the crude sector enjoys the strongest freight market since 2008-09. 15-year old VLCCs, which had reached valuations below $20m in 2012/13 are today valued double that price at shy/rgn $40m. However, the crude tanker order book is increasing and the challenging conditions for shipyards may tempt them to lower/control their prices further to get more new building orders. So, the implied strategy for tankers is buy if you can charter-out long-term at the current firm rates.
In the dry sector, Messrs. Fredriksen, Embiricos, Chandris, Angelicoussis, Martinos extended family, Prokopiou, Hadjiyiannis (Cyprus) are just a few amongst distinguished counter-cyclical peers who have made decisive moves during this 1st half. 15-yo Capes were sold in the $9m’s, about one third of the price paid 15 months earlier.
Interestingly, in the last couple of weeks, prices for modern Kamsarmaxes have increased almost 10% for the first time since March 2014 while competition and the number of inspecting parties is rising. Meantime, the BDI has more than doubled since February’s historical lows. The record scrapping of the 1st half and the limited new building orders during the last year point to an eventual recovery. The short term momentum for asset values is rosy, while the longer (3-year) t/c rates remain extremely depressed and represent a promising alternative vehicle of investment although the owners willing to charter-out on a long basis are scarce.
Finally, we have calculated the ratios of the Price of a 5-year old vessel over its 1-year earnings. We used 3-year T/C rates (on an annualized basis) to remove excess ‘noise’ and since both asset values and longer-T/C rates incorporate certain (ir-)rational expectations. No strong pattern was revealed. Still the strongest incentive to invest is ‘buy as low as it gets’ even if the underlying freight market is depressed or ‘buy and fix long’ when P/E’s are low.
By Panos Tsilingiris
SnP/Newbuildings Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 04 June 15
DRY BULK MARKET FAILED TO OFFER ANY POSITIVE SURPRISES - INTERMODAL
COALspot.com: This has been another week that the Dry Bulk market failed to offer any positive surprises, while the BDI, which is still faring belo ...
Wednesday, 03 June 15
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - VASSILIS LOGOTHETIS
For some time now the Dry Bulk market has been severely affected by China’s slowing GDP growth rate that occurs in the background of increase ...
Tuesday, 02 June 15
FOB INDONESIA COAL Q3 SWAP ADVANCED 1.73% MONTH OVER MONTH
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swap for delivery Q3 2015 gains month on month and lost week over week, this past week.
The Q3 swap was climbed ...
Tuesday, 02 June 15
FOB RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAPS; Q3'15 CLOSED HIGHER THAN Q1'16
COALspot.com: API4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap for delivery Q3' 2015 up month over month and week over week.
The Q3 swap was up US$ 0.80 (1 ...
Monday, 01 June 15
35,000 MW POWER PLANTS TO BOOST COAL CONSUMPTION - JP
The government’s program to develop 35,000 megawatt (MW) power plants will increase domestic coal consumption, which currently stands at arou ...
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- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- The University of Queensland
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
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