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Wednesday, 22 July 15
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - PANOS TSILINGIRIS | INTERMODAL
 In both bulk shipping sectors, there are certain, yet different, reasons and strategies to invest. In the wet, buy once you can charter-out long, while in the dry go long on chartering-in or buy and wait.
In the wet sector, buying a 5-year old Tanker and chartering it out for 3-years would return back a significant part of the investment, namely, 35-40% in all sectors from MR to VLCCs. The Price to 1-year Earnings(annualized 3-year T/C Revenues minus OPEX) ratios for all tanker sectors are in the region of 7.45 and 8.63, well below the several last years’ averages, which renders investments with fixed charters attractive. The anticipated correction in product tankers due to the significant deliveries did not materialize with the demand absorbing the supply. At the same time, the crude sector enjoys the strongest freight market since 2008-09. 15-year old VLCCs, which had reached valuations below $20m in 2012/13 are today valued double that price at shy/rgn $40m. However, the crude tanker order book is increasing and the challenging conditions for shipyards may tempt them to lower/control their prices further to get more new building orders. So, the implied strategy for tankers is buy if you can charter-out long-term at the current firm rates.
In the dry sector, Messrs. Fredriksen, Embiricos, Chandris, Angelicoussis, Martinos extended family, Prokopiou, Hadjiyiannis (Cyprus) are just a few amongst distinguished counter-cyclical peers who have made decisive moves during this 1st half. 15-yo Capes were sold in the $9m’s, about one third of the price paid 15 months earlier.
Interestingly, in the last couple of weeks, prices for modern Kamsarmaxes have increased almost 10% for the first time since March 2014 while competition and the number of inspecting parties is rising. Meantime, the BDI has more than doubled since February’s historical lows. The record scrapping of the 1st half and the limited new building orders during the last year point to an eventual recovery. The short term momentum for asset values is rosy, while the longer (3-year) t/c rates remain extremely depressed and represent a promising alternative vehicle of investment although the owners willing to charter-out on a long basis are scarce.
Finally, we have calculated the ratios of the Price of a 5-year old vessel over its 1-year earnings. We used 3-year T/C rates (on an annualized basis) to remove excess ‘noise’ and since both asset values and longer-T/C rates incorporate certain (ir-)rational expectations. No strong pattern was revealed. Still the strongest incentive to invest is ‘buy as low as it gets’ even if the underlying freight market is depressed or ‘buy and fix long’ when P/E’s are low.
By Panos Tsilingiris
SnP/Newbuildings Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 05 August 15
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - KATERINA RESTIS
On July 14th, 2015 a historical consensus was reached in Vienna between Iran and the five permanent members of the U.N. Security Council, plus Germ ...
Wednesday, 05 August 15
COAL CONSUMPTION POSTED THE STRONGEST GROWTH AMONG THE FOSSIL ENERGY SOURCES IN 2014 - VDKI
Coal 2014: again the world's fastest-growing primary energy source and an indispensable asset for the success of the energy turnaround.
Ac ...
Wednesday, 05 August 15
FOB INDONESIA THERMAL COAL SWAPS FALL
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swap for delivery 4Q 2015 declined month on month and week over week, this past week.
The 4Q swap was declined $ ...
Wednesday, 05 August 15
DRY BULKER PRICES START TO FIRM UP AS MARKET SENTIMENT IMPROVES - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
Market pessimism in the dry bulk industry, a trend which had established itself over the course of the year, has started to fade away over the past ...
Tuesday, 04 August 15
FOB RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAPS CONTINUE TO FALL DUE TO SLIDING DEMAND
COALspot.com: API4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap for delivery 4Q' 2015 declined month over month and week over week.
The 4Q swap was down US$ ...
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- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Planning Commission, India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Australian Coal Association
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- PTC India Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
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