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Wednesday, 22 July 15
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - PANOS TSILINGIRIS | INTERMODAL
 In both bulk shipping sectors, there are certain, yet different, reasons and strategies to invest. In the wet, buy once you can charter-out long, while in the dry go long on chartering-in or buy and wait.
In the wet sector, buying a 5-year old Tanker and chartering it out for 3-years would return back a significant part of the investment, namely, 35-40% in all sectors from MR to VLCCs. The Price to 1-year Earnings(annualized 3-year T/C Revenues minus OPEX) ratios for all tanker sectors are in the region of 7.45 and 8.63, well below the several last years’ averages, which renders investments with fixed charters attractive. The anticipated correction in product tankers due to the significant deliveries did not materialize with the demand absorbing the supply. At the same time, the crude sector enjoys the strongest freight market since 2008-09. 15-year old VLCCs, which had reached valuations below $20m in 2012/13 are today valued double that price at shy/rgn $40m. However, the crude tanker order book is increasing and the challenging conditions for shipyards may tempt them to lower/control their prices further to get more new building orders. So, the implied strategy for tankers is buy if you can charter-out long-term at the current firm rates.
In the dry sector, Messrs. Fredriksen, Embiricos, Chandris, Angelicoussis, Martinos extended family, Prokopiou, Hadjiyiannis (Cyprus) are just a few amongst distinguished counter-cyclical peers who have made decisive moves during this 1st half. 15-yo Capes were sold in the $9m’s, about one third of the price paid 15 months earlier.
Interestingly, in the last couple of weeks, prices for modern Kamsarmaxes have increased almost 10% for the first time since March 2014 while competition and the number of inspecting parties is rising. Meantime, the BDI has more than doubled since February’s historical lows. The record scrapping of the 1st half and the limited new building orders during the last year point to an eventual recovery. The short term momentum for asset values is rosy, while the longer (3-year) t/c rates remain extremely depressed and represent a promising alternative vehicle of investment although the owners willing to charter-out on a long basis are scarce.
Finally, we have calculated the ratios of the Price of a 5-year old vessel over its 1-year earnings. We used 3-year T/C rates (on an annualized basis) to remove excess ‘noise’ and since both asset values and longer-T/C rates incorporate certain (ir-)rational expectations. No strong pattern was revealed. Still the strongest incentive to invest is ‘buy as low as it gets’ even if the underlying freight market is depressed or ‘buy and fix long’ when P/E’s are low.
By Panos Tsilingiris
SnP/Newbuildings Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 07 August 15
COAL PRICE DEVELOPMENTS CAN ONLY BE DESCRIBED, SUCCINCTLY AS "OVERSUPPLY MEETS SUBDUED DEMAND" - VDKI
Coal Outlook 2015 – International
Regarding the outlook for global coal trading, two questions arise: firstly, “ whether the years of ...
Friday, 07 August 15
U.S. YEAR-TO-DATE COAL PRODUCTION TOTALED 528.1 MMST; DOWN 8.7% Y/Y - EIA
COALspot.com – United States the world’s second largest coal producer has produced approximately totaled an estimated 17.7 million shor ...
Thursday, 06 August 15
THE RATES FOR CAPES SHOOT UP LAST WEEK; GIVING THIS RECENT RALLY SOME MUCH NEEDED LEGS - INTERMODAL
COALspot.com: The Dry Bulk market noted another positive closing last week, entirely supported by Capesize performance, which managed to balance th ...
Thursday, 06 August 15
HARD COAL AND COKE IMPORTS TO GERMANY REACH NEW ALL-TIME HIGH OF 56.2M TONES IN 2014
Demand for German and imported hard coal In 2014, in 2014 fell by almost 8%, or 4.8m TCE, to 56.2m TCE.
According to German Coal Importer ...
Thursday, 06 August 15
SEABORNE WORLD TRADE IN STEAM COAL GROWS BY 3% YOY - GERMAN COAL IMPORTER ASSOCIATION
Global trade with hard coal, at 1,272m tones in 2014, increased by 35m tonnes or 3% in comparison with the previous year.
According to associa ...
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- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Australian Coal Association
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- The University of Queensland
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- VISA Power Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Planning Commission, India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- PTC India Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
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