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Wednesday, 22 July 15
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - PANOS TSILINGIRIS | INTERMODAL
 In both bulk shipping sectors, there are certain, yet different, reasons and strategies to invest. In the wet, buy once you can charter-out long, while in the dry go long on chartering-in or buy and wait.
In the wet sector, buying a 5-year old Tanker and chartering it out for 3-years would return back a significant part of the investment, namely, 35-40% in all sectors from MR to VLCCs. The Price to 1-year Earnings(annualized 3-year T/C Revenues minus OPEX) ratios for all tanker sectors are in the region of 7.45 and 8.63, well below the several last years’ averages, which renders investments with fixed charters attractive. The anticipated correction in product tankers due to the significant deliveries did not materialize with the demand absorbing the supply. At the same time, the crude sector enjoys the strongest freight market since 2008-09. 15-year old VLCCs, which had reached valuations below $20m in 2012/13 are today valued double that price at shy/rgn $40m. However, the crude tanker order book is increasing and the challenging conditions for shipyards may tempt them to lower/control their prices further to get more new building orders. So, the implied strategy for tankers is buy if you can charter-out long-term at the current firm rates.
In the dry sector, Messrs. Fredriksen, Embiricos, Chandris, Angelicoussis, Martinos extended family, Prokopiou, Hadjiyiannis (Cyprus) are just a few amongst distinguished counter-cyclical peers who have made decisive moves during this 1st half. 15-yo Capes were sold in the $9m’s, about one third of the price paid 15 months earlier.
Interestingly, in the last couple of weeks, prices for modern Kamsarmaxes have increased almost 10% for the first time since March 2014 while competition and the number of inspecting parties is rising. Meantime, the BDI has more than doubled since February’s historical lows. The record scrapping of the 1st half and the limited new building orders during the last year point to an eventual recovery. The short term momentum for asset values is rosy, while the longer (3-year) t/c rates remain extremely depressed and represent a promising alternative vehicle of investment although the owners willing to charter-out on a long basis are scarce.
Finally, we have calculated the ratios of the Price of a 5-year old vessel over its 1-year earnings. We used 3-year T/C rates (on an annualized basis) to remove excess ‘noise’ and since both asset values and longer-T/C rates incorporate certain (ir-)rational expectations. No strong pattern was revealed. Still the strongest incentive to invest is ‘buy as low as it gets’ even if the underlying freight market is depressed or ‘buy and fix long’ when P/E’s are low.
By Panos Tsilingiris
SnP/Newbuildings Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 07 August 15
COAL PRICE DEVELOPMENTS CAN ONLY BE DESCRIBED, SUCCINCTLY AS "OVERSUPPLY MEETS SUBDUED DEMAND" - VDKI
Coal Outlook 2015 – International
Regarding the outlook for global coal trading, two questions arise: firstly, “ whether the years of ...
Friday, 07 August 15
U.S. YEAR-TO-DATE COAL PRODUCTION TOTALED 528.1 MMST; DOWN 8.7% Y/Y - EIA
COALspot.com – United States the world’s second largest coal producer has produced approximately totaled an estimated 17.7 million shor ...
Thursday, 06 August 15
THE RATES FOR CAPES SHOOT UP LAST WEEK; GIVING THIS RECENT RALLY SOME MUCH NEEDED LEGS - INTERMODAL
COALspot.com: The Dry Bulk market noted another positive closing last week, entirely supported by Capesize performance, which managed to balance th ...
Thursday, 06 August 15
HARD COAL AND COKE IMPORTS TO GERMANY REACH NEW ALL-TIME HIGH OF 56.2M TONES IN 2014
Demand for German and imported hard coal In 2014, in 2014 fell by almost 8%, or 4.8m TCE, to 56.2m TCE.
According to German Coal Importer ...
Thursday, 06 August 15
SEABORNE WORLD TRADE IN STEAM COAL GROWS BY 3% YOY - GERMAN COAL IMPORTER ASSOCIATION
Global trade with hard coal, at 1,272m tones in 2014, increased by 35m tonnes or 3% in comparison with the previous year.
According to associa ...
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- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- The University of Queensland
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
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