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Wednesday, 22 July 15
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - PANOS TSILINGIRIS | INTERMODAL
 In both bulk shipping sectors, there are certain, yet different, reasons and strategies to invest. In the wet, buy once you can charter-out long, while in the dry go long on chartering-in or buy and wait.
In the wet sector, buying a 5-year old Tanker and chartering it out for 3-years would return back a significant part of the investment, namely, 35-40% in all sectors from MR to VLCCs. The Price to 1-year Earnings(annualized 3-year T/C Revenues minus OPEX) ratios for all tanker sectors are in the region of 7.45 and 8.63, well below the several last years’ averages, which renders investments with fixed charters attractive. The anticipated correction in product tankers due to the significant deliveries did not materialize with the demand absorbing the supply. At the same time, the crude sector enjoys the strongest freight market since 2008-09. 15-year old VLCCs, which had reached valuations below $20m in 2012/13 are today valued double that price at shy/rgn $40m. However, the crude tanker order book is increasing and the challenging conditions for shipyards may tempt them to lower/control their prices further to get more new building orders. So, the implied strategy for tankers is buy if you can charter-out long-term at the current firm rates.
In the dry sector, Messrs. Fredriksen, Embiricos, Chandris, Angelicoussis, Martinos extended family, Prokopiou, Hadjiyiannis (Cyprus) are just a few amongst distinguished counter-cyclical peers who have made decisive moves during this 1st half. 15-yo Capes were sold in the $9m’s, about one third of the price paid 15 months earlier.
Interestingly, in the last couple of weeks, prices for modern Kamsarmaxes have increased almost 10% for the first time since March 2014 while competition and the number of inspecting parties is rising. Meantime, the BDI has more than doubled since February’s historical lows. The record scrapping of the 1st half and the limited new building orders during the last year point to an eventual recovery. The short term momentum for asset values is rosy, while the longer (3-year) t/c rates remain extremely depressed and represent a promising alternative vehicle of investment although the owners willing to charter-out on a long basis are scarce.
Finally, we have calculated the ratios of the Price of a 5-year old vessel over its 1-year earnings. We used 3-year T/C rates (on an annualized basis) to remove excess ‘noise’ and since both asset values and longer-T/C rates incorporate certain (ir-)rational expectations. No strong pattern was revealed. Still the strongest incentive to invest is ‘buy as low as it gets’ even if the underlying freight market is depressed or ‘buy and fix long’ when P/E’s are low.
By Panos Tsilingiris
SnP/Newbuildings Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 31 July 15
CAPE'S PAPER MARKET REMAINS FIRM - INTERMODAL
COALspot.com: The positive sentiment that the Dry Bulk market has been enjoying as of the previous month, was carried through last week as well, bu ...
Friday, 31 July 15
COAL PRODUCTION IN THE U.S. UP 3.6% FOR THE WEEK ENDING JULY 25
COALspot.com – United States the world’s second largest coal producer has produced approximately totaled an estimated 17.8 million shor ...
Friday, 31 July 15
CHINA'S NEW OIL IMPORT RULES HAVE MINIMAL IMPACT ON STATUS QUO - FITCH
Fitch Ratings says that China's looser criteria for crude oil import rights are a positive but modest step towards encouraging private-sector p ...
Thursday, 30 July 15
EFFECTS OF THE CHINESE STOCK MARKET CRISIS - INTERMODAL
All evidence is currently signaling that the Chinese stock market will be the newest hurdle for the global economy. With the world's second lar ...
Wednesday, 29 July 15
Q1'16 FOB INDONESIA COAL SWAP CLOSED HIGHER THAN Q3'15
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swap for delivery Q3 2015 declined month on month and gains week over week, this past week.
The Q3 swap was decl ...
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- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Australian Coal Association
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- White Energy Company Limited
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Planning Commission, India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- The University of Queensland
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
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