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Wednesday, 22 July 15
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - PANOS TSILINGIRIS | INTERMODAL
 In both bulk shipping sectors, there are certain, yet different, reasons and strategies to invest. In the wet, buy once you can charter-out long, while in the dry go long on chartering-in or buy and wait.
In the wet sector, buying a 5-year old Tanker and chartering it out for 3-years would return back a significant part of the investment, namely, 35-40% in all sectors from MR to VLCCs. The Price to 1-year Earnings(annualized 3-year T/C Revenues minus OPEX) ratios for all tanker sectors are in the region of 7.45 and 8.63, well below the several last years’ averages, which renders investments with fixed charters attractive. The anticipated correction in product tankers due to the significant deliveries did not materialize with the demand absorbing the supply. At the same time, the crude sector enjoys the strongest freight market since 2008-09. 15-year old VLCCs, which had reached valuations below $20m in 2012/13 are today valued double that price at shy/rgn $40m. However, the crude tanker order book is increasing and the challenging conditions for shipyards may tempt them to lower/control their prices further to get more new building orders. So, the implied strategy for tankers is buy if you can charter-out long-term at the current firm rates.
In the dry sector, Messrs. Fredriksen, Embiricos, Chandris, Angelicoussis, Martinos extended family, Prokopiou, Hadjiyiannis (Cyprus) are just a few amongst distinguished counter-cyclical peers who have made decisive moves during this 1st half. 15-yo Capes were sold in the $9m’s, about one third of the price paid 15 months earlier.
Interestingly, in the last couple of weeks, prices for modern Kamsarmaxes have increased almost 10% for the first time since March 2014 while competition and the number of inspecting parties is rising. Meantime, the BDI has more than doubled since February’s historical lows. The record scrapping of the 1st half and the limited new building orders during the last year point to an eventual recovery. The short term momentum for asset values is rosy, while the longer (3-year) t/c rates remain extremely depressed and represent a promising alternative vehicle of investment although the owners willing to charter-out on a long basis are scarce.
Finally, we have calculated the ratios of the Price of a 5-year old vessel over its 1-year earnings. We used 3-year T/C rates (on an annualized basis) to remove excess ‘noise’ and since both asset values and longer-T/C rates incorporate certain (ir-)rational expectations. No strong pattern was revealed. Still the strongest incentive to invest is ‘buy as low as it gets’ even if the underlying freight market is depressed or ‘buy and fix long’ when P/E’s are low.
By Panos Tsilingiris
SnP/Newbuildings Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 31 July 15
CAPE'S PAPER MARKET REMAINS FIRM - INTERMODAL
COALspot.com: The positive sentiment that the Dry Bulk market has been enjoying as of the previous month, was carried through last week as well, bu ...
Friday, 31 July 15
COAL PRODUCTION IN THE U.S. UP 3.6% FOR THE WEEK ENDING JULY 25
COALspot.com – United States the world’s second largest coal producer has produced approximately totaled an estimated 17.8 million shor ...
Friday, 31 July 15
CHINA'S NEW OIL IMPORT RULES HAVE MINIMAL IMPACT ON STATUS QUO - FITCH
Fitch Ratings says that China's looser criteria for crude oil import rights are a positive but modest step towards encouraging private-sector p ...
Thursday, 30 July 15
EFFECTS OF THE CHINESE STOCK MARKET CRISIS - INTERMODAL
All evidence is currently signaling that the Chinese stock market will be the newest hurdle for the global economy. With the world's second lar ...
Wednesday, 29 July 15
Q1'16 FOB INDONESIA COAL SWAP CLOSED HIGHER THAN Q3'15
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swap for delivery Q3 2015 declined month on month and gains week over week, this past week.
The Q3 swap was decl ...
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- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Planning Commission, India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- White Energy Company Limited
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
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