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Wednesday, 22 July 15
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - PANOS TSILINGIRIS | INTERMODAL
 In both bulk shipping sectors, there are certain, yet different, reasons and strategies to invest. In the wet, buy once you can charter-out long, while in the dry go long on chartering-in or buy and wait.
In the wet sector, buying a 5-year old Tanker and chartering it out for 3-years would return back a significant part of the investment, namely, 35-40% in all sectors from MR to VLCCs. The Price to 1-year Earnings(annualized 3-year T/C Revenues minus OPEX) ratios for all tanker sectors are in the region of 7.45 and 8.63, well below the several last years’ averages, which renders investments with fixed charters attractive. The anticipated correction in product tankers due to the significant deliveries did not materialize with the demand absorbing the supply. At the same time, the crude sector enjoys the strongest freight market since 2008-09. 15-year old VLCCs, which had reached valuations below $20m in 2012/13 are today valued double that price at shy/rgn $40m. However, the crude tanker order book is increasing and the challenging conditions for shipyards may tempt them to lower/control their prices further to get more new building orders. So, the implied strategy for tankers is buy if you can charter-out long-term at the current firm rates.
In the dry sector, Messrs. Fredriksen, Embiricos, Chandris, Angelicoussis, Martinos extended family, Prokopiou, Hadjiyiannis (Cyprus) are just a few amongst distinguished counter-cyclical peers who have made decisive moves during this 1st half. 15-yo Capes were sold in the $9m’s, about one third of the price paid 15 months earlier.
Interestingly, in the last couple of weeks, prices for modern Kamsarmaxes have increased almost 10% for the first time since March 2014 while competition and the number of inspecting parties is rising. Meantime, the BDI has more than doubled since February’s historical lows. The record scrapping of the 1st half and the limited new building orders during the last year point to an eventual recovery. The short term momentum for asset values is rosy, while the longer (3-year) t/c rates remain extremely depressed and represent a promising alternative vehicle of investment although the owners willing to charter-out on a long basis are scarce.
Finally, we have calculated the ratios of the Price of a 5-year old vessel over its 1-year earnings. We used 3-year T/C rates (on an annualized basis) to remove excess ‘noise’ and since both asset values and longer-T/C rates incorporate certain (ir-)rational expectations. No strong pattern was revealed. Still the strongest incentive to invest is ‘buy as low as it gets’ even if the underlying freight market is depressed or ‘buy and fix long’ when P/E’s are low.
By Panos Tsilingiris
SnP/Newbuildings Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 04 August 15
SHIPPING CYCLES - A CHESS GAME YOU DON'T WANT TO LOSE - CLARKSONS
Ingmar Bergman’s classic movie The Seventh Seal is about a knight who, during the Black Death, challenges Death to a chess match, in the hope ...
Monday, 03 August 15
NEWCASTLE COAL SWAPS DECLINE FURTHER THIS PAST WEEK
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for 4Q’ 2015 delivery down $ 1.92 per MT (-4.22%) month over month to US$ 43.58 per mt. The swap ...
Monday, 03 August 15
CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAPS SLIDE THIS WEEK
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for 4Q’ 2015 delivery declined US$ 1.64 (3.14%) per MT month over month.
A commodity swap ...
Sunday, 02 August 15
CAPESIZE RATES PUSH BDI UPWARD
COALspot.com: The freight market was buoyant this week as BDI rose 4.14 pct to 1131 points. The cape index was also increased 16.50 pct 2209 points ...
Saturday, 01 August 15
DRY BULK MARKET KEEPS ITS MOMENTUM, AS OUTLOOK IMPROVES - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
Although conditions remain more than challenging, especially from an economic point of view (aka China’s stock worries), the dry bulk market ...
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- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Australian Coal Association
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- The University of Queensland
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- White Energy Company Limited
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- VISA Power Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
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