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Wednesday, 22 July 15
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - PANOS TSILINGIRIS | INTERMODAL
 In both bulk shipping sectors, there are certain, yet different, reasons and strategies to invest. In the wet, buy once you can charter-out long, while in the dry go long on chartering-in or buy and wait.
In the wet sector, buying a 5-year old Tanker and chartering it out for 3-years would return back a significant part of the investment, namely, 35-40% in all sectors from MR to VLCCs. The Price to 1-year Earnings(annualized 3-year T/C Revenues minus OPEX) ratios for all tanker sectors are in the region of 7.45 and 8.63, well below the several last years’ averages, which renders investments with fixed charters attractive. The anticipated correction in product tankers due to the significant deliveries did not materialize with the demand absorbing the supply. At the same time, the crude sector enjoys the strongest freight market since 2008-09. 15-year old VLCCs, which had reached valuations below $20m in 2012/13 are today valued double that price at shy/rgn $40m. However, the crude tanker order book is increasing and the challenging conditions for shipyards may tempt them to lower/control their prices further to get more new building orders. So, the implied strategy for tankers is buy if you can charter-out long-term at the current firm rates.
In the dry sector, Messrs. Fredriksen, Embiricos, Chandris, Angelicoussis, Martinos extended family, Prokopiou, Hadjiyiannis (Cyprus) are just a few amongst distinguished counter-cyclical peers who have made decisive moves during this 1st half. 15-yo Capes were sold in the $9m’s, about one third of the price paid 15 months earlier.
Interestingly, in the last couple of weeks, prices for modern Kamsarmaxes have increased almost 10% for the first time since March 2014 while competition and the number of inspecting parties is rising. Meantime, the BDI has more than doubled since February’s historical lows. The record scrapping of the 1st half and the limited new building orders during the last year point to an eventual recovery. The short term momentum for asset values is rosy, while the longer (3-year) t/c rates remain extremely depressed and represent a promising alternative vehicle of investment although the owners willing to charter-out on a long basis are scarce.
Finally, we have calculated the ratios of the Price of a 5-year old vessel over its 1-year earnings. We used 3-year T/C rates (on an annualized basis) to remove excess ‘noise’ and since both asset values and longer-T/C rates incorporate certain (ir-)rational expectations. No strong pattern was revealed. Still the strongest incentive to invest is ‘buy as low as it gets’ even if the underlying freight market is depressed or ‘buy and fix long’ when P/E’s are low.
By Panos Tsilingiris
SnP/Newbuildings Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 04 August 15
SHIPPING CYCLES - A CHESS GAME YOU DON'T WANT TO LOSE - CLARKSONS
Ingmar Bergman’s classic movie The Seventh Seal is about a knight who, during the Black Death, challenges Death to a chess match, in the hope ...
Monday, 03 August 15
NEWCASTLE COAL SWAPS DECLINE FURTHER THIS PAST WEEK
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for 4Q’ 2015 delivery down $ 1.92 per MT (-4.22%) month over month to US$ 43.58 per mt. The swap ...
Monday, 03 August 15
CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAPS SLIDE THIS WEEK
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for 4Q’ 2015 delivery declined US$ 1.64 (3.14%) per MT month over month.
A commodity swap ...
Sunday, 02 August 15
CAPESIZE RATES PUSH BDI UPWARD
COALspot.com: The freight market was buoyant this week as BDI rose 4.14 pct to 1131 points. The cape index was also increased 16.50 pct 2209 points ...
Saturday, 01 August 15
DRY BULK MARKET KEEPS ITS MOMENTUM, AS OUTLOOK IMPROVES - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
Although conditions remain more than challenging, especially from an economic point of view (aka China’s stock worries), the dry bulk market ...
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- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Planning Commission, India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- The University of Queensland
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Australian Coal Association
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
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