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Wednesday, 22 July 15
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - PANOS TSILINGIRIS | INTERMODAL
 In both bulk shipping sectors, there are certain, yet different, reasons and strategies to invest. In the wet, buy once you can charter-out long, while in the dry go long on chartering-in or buy and wait.
In the wet sector, buying a 5-year old Tanker and chartering it out for 3-years would return back a significant part of the investment, namely, 35-40% in all sectors from MR to VLCCs. The Price to 1-year Earnings(annualized 3-year T/C Revenues minus OPEX) ratios for all tanker sectors are in the region of 7.45 and 8.63, well below the several last years’ averages, which renders investments with fixed charters attractive. The anticipated correction in product tankers due to the significant deliveries did not materialize with the demand absorbing the supply. At the same time, the crude sector enjoys the strongest freight market since 2008-09. 15-year old VLCCs, which had reached valuations below $20m in 2012/13 are today valued double that price at shy/rgn $40m. However, the crude tanker order book is increasing and the challenging conditions for shipyards may tempt them to lower/control their prices further to get more new building orders. So, the implied strategy for tankers is buy if you can charter-out long-term at the current firm rates.
In the dry sector, Messrs. Fredriksen, Embiricos, Chandris, Angelicoussis, Martinos extended family, Prokopiou, Hadjiyiannis (Cyprus) are just a few amongst distinguished counter-cyclical peers who have made decisive moves during this 1st half. 15-yo Capes were sold in the $9m’s, about one third of the price paid 15 months earlier.
Interestingly, in the last couple of weeks, prices for modern Kamsarmaxes have increased almost 10% for the first time since March 2014 while competition and the number of inspecting parties is rising. Meantime, the BDI has more than doubled since February’s historical lows. The record scrapping of the 1st half and the limited new building orders during the last year point to an eventual recovery. The short term momentum for asset values is rosy, while the longer (3-year) t/c rates remain extremely depressed and represent a promising alternative vehicle of investment although the owners willing to charter-out on a long basis are scarce.
Finally, we have calculated the ratios of the Price of a 5-year old vessel over its 1-year earnings. We used 3-year T/C rates (on an annualized basis) to remove excess ‘noise’ and since both asset values and longer-T/C rates incorporate certain (ir-)rational expectations. No strong pattern was revealed. Still the strongest incentive to invest is ‘buy as low as it gets’ even if the underlying freight market is depressed or ‘buy and fix long’ when P/E’s are low.
By Panos Tsilingiris
SnP/Newbuildings Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 12 August 15
FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAP FLAT WEEK OVER WEEK
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for 4Q’ 2015 delivery down $ 0.98 per MT (-2.20%) month over month to US$ 43.65 per mt. The swap ...
Tuesday, 11 August 15
GLOBAL PRODUCTION OF CRUDE STEEL REACHED A NEW ALL-TIME HIGH OF 1,661M TONNES IN 2014 - VDKI
COALpot.com: Global production of crude steel reached a new all-time high of 1,661m tonnes in 2014, said German Coal Importer Association, in its l ...
Tuesday, 11 August 15
2016 CFR S.CHINA COAL SWAPS CLOSED SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN 4Q 2015 CLOSING PRICES; BUT NOT SIGNIFICANT
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for 4Q’ 2015 delivery declined just US cents 10 (0.20%) per MT month over month.
A commodi ...
Monday, 10 August 15
SOUTH KOREAN UTILITY KOMIPO INVITES BITUMINOUS COAL BIDS FOR BORYEONG POWER PLANT
COALspot.com: South Korean state-owned utility Korea Midland Power (KOMIPO) issued an new tender for 560,000 Metric Tons (MT) of 4,600kcal/kg NAR c ...
Sunday, 09 August 15
THE PANAMAX MARKET HAS REMAINED WEAK THIS WEEK
COALspot.com: The freight market continued to be buoyant with cape index pushing the BDI.
The BDI was up 10.49% and closed at 1200 points on 7 ...
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- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Planning Commission, India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- The University of Queensland
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- White Energy Company Limited
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
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