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Wednesday, 22 July 15
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - PANOS TSILINGIRIS | INTERMODAL
 In both bulk shipping sectors, there are certain, yet different, reasons and strategies to invest. In the wet, buy once you can charter-out long, while in the dry go long on chartering-in or buy and wait.
In the wet sector, buying a 5-year old Tanker and chartering it out for 3-years would return back a significant part of the investment, namely, 35-40% in all sectors from MR to VLCCs. The Price to 1-year Earnings(annualized 3-year T/C Revenues minus OPEX) ratios for all tanker sectors are in the region of 7.45 and 8.63, well below the several last years’ averages, which renders investments with fixed charters attractive. The anticipated correction in product tankers due to the significant deliveries did not materialize with the demand absorbing the supply. At the same time, the crude sector enjoys the strongest freight market since 2008-09. 15-year old VLCCs, which had reached valuations below $20m in 2012/13 are today valued double that price at shy/rgn $40m. However, the crude tanker order book is increasing and the challenging conditions for shipyards may tempt them to lower/control their prices further to get more new building orders. So, the implied strategy for tankers is buy if you can charter-out long-term at the current firm rates.
In the dry sector, Messrs. Fredriksen, Embiricos, Chandris, Angelicoussis, Martinos extended family, Prokopiou, Hadjiyiannis (Cyprus) are just a few amongst distinguished counter-cyclical peers who have made decisive moves during this 1st half. 15-yo Capes were sold in the $9m’s, about one third of the price paid 15 months earlier.
Interestingly, in the last couple of weeks, prices for modern Kamsarmaxes have increased almost 10% for the first time since March 2014 while competition and the number of inspecting parties is rising. Meantime, the BDI has more than doubled since February’s historical lows. The record scrapping of the 1st half and the limited new building orders during the last year point to an eventual recovery. The short term momentum for asset values is rosy, while the longer (3-year) t/c rates remain extremely depressed and represent a promising alternative vehicle of investment although the owners willing to charter-out on a long basis are scarce.
Finally, we have calculated the ratios of the Price of a 5-year old vessel over its 1-year earnings. We used 3-year T/C rates (on an annualized basis) to remove excess ‘noise’ and since both asset values and longer-T/C rates incorporate certain (ir-)rational expectations. No strong pattern was revealed. Still the strongest incentive to invest is ‘buy as low as it gets’ even if the underlying freight market is depressed or ‘buy and fix long’ when P/E’s are low.
By Panos Tsilingiris
SnP/Newbuildings Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 14 August 15
CONDITIONS AND COMPLEXITIES IN A TRIPARTITE AGREEMENT: BE SPECIFIC! - INCE & CO
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
A tripartite agreement reached between the Owners, the Shippers and the Receivers provided that demurrage be paid to the ...
Thursday, 13 August 15
THE RATES FOR CAPES KEPT RALLYING LAST WEEK - INTERMODAL
COALspot.com: Strong Capesize performance kept supporting the Dry Bulk market last week, which noted another positive weekly closing, while rates f ...
Thursday, 13 August 15
FOB RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAPS CONTINUE FALLING
COALspot.com: API4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap for delivery 4Q' 2015 declined month over month and week over week.
The 4Q swap was down US$ ...
Wednesday, 12 August 15
DRY BULK MARKET: WITHOUT A DOUBT REACHED HEALTHIER LEVEL
A few weeks before the end of the summer season, the BDI is hovering around 1,200 points, providing some much needed optimism to all Dry Bulk marke ...
Wednesday, 12 August 15
REGULATION CURBS POWER OF LOCAL AUTHORITIES IN MINING SECTOR IN INDONESIA - FLORENCE G. SANTOSO
The Indonesian Government appears to be getting serious about stripping Regents of the authority to issue mining licenses. The Government took the ...
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- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- White Energy Company Limited
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- The University of Queensland
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
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