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Wednesday, 22 July 15
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - PANOS TSILINGIRIS | INTERMODAL
 In both bulk shipping sectors, there are certain, yet different, reasons and strategies to invest. In the wet, buy once you can charter-out long, while in the dry go long on chartering-in or buy and wait.
In the wet sector, buying a 5-year old Tanker and chartering it out for 3-years would return back a significant part of the investment, namely, 35-40% in all sectors from MR to VLCCs. The Price to 1-year Earnings(annualized 3-year T/C Revenues minus OPEX) ratios for all tanker sectors are in the region of 7.45 and 8.63, well below the several last years’ averages, which renders investments with fixed charters attractive. The anticipated correction in product tankers due to the significant deliveries did not materialize with the demand absorbing the supply. At the same time, the crude sector enjoys the strongest freight market since 2008-09. 15-year old VLCCs, which had reached valuations below $20m in 2012/13 are today valued double that price at shy/rgn $40m. However, the crude tanker order book is increasing and the challenging conditions for shipyards may tempt them to lower/control their prices further to get more new building orders. So, the implied strategy for tankers is buy if you can charter-out long-term at the current firm rates.
In the dry sector, Messrs. Fredriksen, Embiricos, Chandris, Angelicoussis, Martinos extended family, Prokopiou, Hadjiyiannis (Cyprus) are just a few amongst distinguished counter-cyclical peers who have made decisive moves during this 1st half. 15-yo Capes were sold in the $9m’s, about one third of the price paid 15 months earlier.
Interestingly, in the last couple of weeks, prices for modern Kamsarmaxes have increased almost 10% for the first time since March 2014 while competition and the number of inspecting parties is rising. Meantime, the BDI has more than doubled since February’s historical lows. The record scrapping of the 1st half and the limited new building orders during the last year point to an eventual recovery. The short term momentum for asset values is rosy, while the longer (3-year) t/c rates remain extremely depressed and represent a promising alternative vehicle of investment although the owners willing to charter-out on a long basis are scarce.
Finally, we have calculated the ratios of the Price of a 5-year old vessel over its 1-year earnings. We used 3-year T/C rates (on an annualized basis) to remove excess ‘noise’ and since both asset values and longer-T/C rates incorporate certain (ir-)rational expectations. No strong pattern was revealed. Still the strongest incentive to invest is ‘buy as low as it gets’ even if the underlying freight market is depressed or ‘buy and fix long’ when P/E’s are low.
By Panos Tsilingiris
SnP/Newbuildings Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 17 August 15
INDONESIAN THERMAL COAL REFERENCE PRICE HITS RECORD LOW AGAIN!
COALspot.com - The Director General of Mineral and Coal of Indonesia revised down Indonesian coal benchmark price once again to US$ 59.14 per MT fo ...
Monday, 17 August 15
CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAPS CONTINUE TO HEAD SOUTH
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for 4Q’ 2015 delivery declined just US cents 40 (1.05%) per MT month over month.
A commodi ...
Sunday, 16 August 15
INDONESIA TO INDIA FREIGHT RATES ARE EXPECTED TO STEADY NEXT WEEK
COALspot.com: The BDI softened 12.08 per cent to 1055 points this week due to weakening of cape index which was fell 25 per cent week over week to ...
Friday, 14 August 15
FOB INDONESIA COAL SWAP SHOWING NO MOVEMENT THIS PAST WEEK
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swap for delivery 4Q 2015 declined month on month and week over week, this past week.
The 4Q swap was declined $ ...
Friday, 14 August 15
U.S. COAL PRODUCTION UP 2.9 PER CENT THIS WEEK
COALspot.com – United States the world’s second largest coal producer has produced approximately totaled an estimated 18.2 million shor ...
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- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Australian Coal Association
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- The University of Queensland
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
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